# So Trump wins, odds of Impeachment? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 9, 2015, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995 "2015-12-09T23:49:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/61 "2016-05-31T17:30:31Z")
It all depends on who is the vice president. If it’s say Mitt Romney, Republicans would have a very short leash for Trump. If it’s Sarah Palin, there would be zero votes in the House to impeach. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/62 "2016-05-31T17:57:31Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > It would not be a coup. The executive branch would begin reporting to the former Vice President, who would now be the President. And can the instant after instruct the Secret Service to courteously but promptly escort the former President and his family out of the White House. At the same time as immediately dismissing the former Executive’s personal staff so any of them who tries to interfere gets treated like a resisting trespasser. You would not be able to avoid using federal personnel for some of all that. What happens when a mob of the more delusional Trumpistas show up at the Capitol steps during the proceedings, is another story. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/63 "2016-05-31T18:01:17Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Probably worth pointing out that once successfully impeached, his VP would be President, so it wouldn’t be a military coup, as it would be the legitimate President getting rid of some criminal in his house. So when Clinton was successfully impeached, Gore was the President? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/64 "2016-05-31T18:01:17Z")
How do the odds of impeachment compare with the odds of assassination? ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/65 "2016-05-31T19:08:21Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > In a clearcut case like ignoring a court order, Really? I’d say presidents have ignored court orders many times. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/66 "2016-05-31T19:13:33Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > So when Clinton was successfully impeached, Gore was the President? 😕 You seem confused. Gore was never President. Clinton was impeached but not convicted. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/67 "2016-05-31T19:24:00Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > Really? > > I’d say presidents have ignored court orders many times. A president _could_ be impeached for ignoring a court order- but if Congress doesn’t care, then nothing will be done. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/68 "2016-05-31T19:33:26Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > You seem confused. Gore was never President. Clinton was impeached but not convicted. Technically, “impeachment” just means that the officer is brought to trial by the Senate, who can either convict and remove the person from office, or not. In common vernacular though, “impeachment” means removal from office. Sometimes the hyper-pedantic like to insist on the difference. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/69 "2016-05-31T20:42:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But when the law is blatantly broken maliciously, I don’t think any President can survive that. I think you seriously underestimate the power of IOKIARDI. Politics now is a team sport. And you never, ever, EVER turn on your team. Ethics, morals, legality? These take a back seat to supporting your team. Unless the Democrats have a 2/3 majority in the senate, there will be no conviction. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/70 "2016-05-31T20:54:00Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > You seem confused. Gore was never President. Clinton was impeached but not convicted. No, **bump** is confused. The Vice President doesn’t take over when a President is impeached. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/71 "2016-05-31T21:00:05Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > No, **bump** is confused. The Vice President doesn’t take over when a President is impeached. Huh? Of course the Vice President takes over if the president is impeached. Who else would take over? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/72 "2016-05-31T21:04:34Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Huh? > > Of course the Vice President takes over if the president is impeached. Who else would take over? [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19370805&postcount=68](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19370805&postcount=68) ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/73 "2016-05-31T21:04:44Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Huh? > > Of course the Vice President takes over if the president is impeached. Who else would take over? No one. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2016, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/74 "2016-05-31T22:05:35Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > The two situations are nowhere near the same. Especially if Trumps supporters try to in some way throw doubt onto the legality of the impeachment process or the senate trial as they probably would. > > A quick read of wiki shows that impeachment of a sitting president has never actually been taken to its conclusion. Nixon resigned and both Johnson and Clinton were acquitted by the senate. There is no throwing doubt on the legality of the impeachment process unless one is disputing the voting record – that would be the only means of disputing the outcome. Impeachment is a political process, not a legal one. Articles are voted on by the House, the trial is in the Senate, and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court observes and presides as acting president of the Senate in the case of an active Senate impeachment trial. Once the Senate confirms the vote to remove someone from office, it’s over. The president must leave. Trump could refuse to leave, but he would quickly be in violation of all sorts of federal laws against trespassing and violating restricted space. On the other hand, the fact that impeachment is a political process and not a legal one has consequences that go beyond the legal impact of forcibly removing someone from public office. Any impeachment would call the strength of the Constitution into question, if only for a relatively momentary period of time. Love him or loathe him, millions of voters will have voted for Trump. Presumably many of those millions will still believe he’s fit for office. Trump would still have a vice president to succeed him. It would be unwise and potentially destabilizing to remove his successor from office as well. My guess is that both parties will try to find ways to live on with a president Trump. Republicans will try to use him as a tool to promote their agenda, and democrats will try to use Trump to tar and feather the republican party. Ironically, I think it’s how the democrats approach Trump in the early stages of his presidency that could determine how Trump moves forward. If they immediately assail him, it’s possible that Trump seeks refuge within the establishment and abandons populism altogether. I could see him moving to the extreme right just to spite the democrats, which would be frightening to say the least. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/75 "2016-06-01T00:26:05Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I could see him moving to the extreme right just to spite the democrats, which would be frightening to say the least. Or he’d just chum up with [North Korea](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/31/north-korean-state-newspaper-praises-donald-trump-as-wise-and-fa/) or [Russia](http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/28/politics/donald-trump-russia-putin/) just to piss everyone off. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/76 "2016-06-01T00:28:10Z")
Assuming an HOR remotely close to this one not a chance. Remember, this is a House that didn’t even try to impeach Eric Holder despite his (arguably) illegal actions AND his [contempt of Congress](http://www.politico.com/story/2012/06/holder-held-in-contempt-of-congress-077988). ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/77 "2016-06-01T00:31:23Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Huh? > > Of course the Vice President takes over if the president is impeached. Who else would take over? Think of the impeachment by the House as analogous to an indictment. If you are indicted, that does not mean you’re guilty and go to jail. After impeachment, the Senate then has the actual “trial” on the charges, and decides whether or not to remove the person from office. Many people use a shorthand “impeachment” to mean BOTH of these events. Pedants will remind us that impeachment by the house is only the first step of the process towards removal from office. ---
**Author:** ![Nema98](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/d2c977/32.png) [@Nema98](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nema98)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/78 "2016-06-01T01:41:07Z")
Don’t know the odds of impeachment, but in terms of making new enemies where there should be none, picking fights, insulting and other petty behaviors, saying things that show yet again how ignorant he is- 100% ---
**Author:** ![boffking](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/858c86/32.png) [@boffking](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/boffking)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/79 "2016-06-01T01:47:34Z")
If Trump continues down the path of [inciting violence](http://mashable.com/2016/03/12/trump-rally-incite-violence/), [commiting fraud](http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/432010/trump-university-scam), [not bothering to pay taxes](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-team-revises-golf-amid-tax-controversy/story?id=39155939), and [bribing people](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/3/15/1501543/-Looks-Like-Trump-May-Have-Committed-a-Major-Electoral-Felony), it won’t be long before he’s impeached. I don’t think Donald “Repeat Offender” Trump will even make it a year in office before he’s hauled away in handcuffs. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2016, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995/80 "2016-06-01T04:01:27Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Unless the Democrats have a 2/3 majority in the senate, there will be no conviction. If Trump starts doing blatantly illegal things inside the US and to US citizens\* then I’d like to think some of the Republicans with morals would cross the floor and vote to impeach. \*As opposed to committing war crimes in distant countries, which unfortunately he would probably get away with. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-trump-wins-odds-of-impeachment/739995.md?page=5)