# So what if Roe v. Wade is overturned? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 27, 2020, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653 "2020-09-27T07:51:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Ike\_Witt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ike_witt/32/283_2.png) [@Ike\_Witt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ike_Witt)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2022, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/242 "2022-05-03T20:36:48Z")
> [@DavidNRockies](#): > > I wonder if the Americans With Disabilities Act is on shaky ground now, too. Hopefully. I wouldn’t mind making life as difficult as possible for Greg Abbott. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2022, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/243 "2022-05-03T21:04:34Z")
If it is overturned it will show that recent Republican nominated supreme court candidates have no problem at all flat out lying to the US senate. A good quality in a judge, eh? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2022, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/244 "2022-05-03T21:22:43Z")
Sadly, republican supporters consider this a feature (but only for conservative nominees…there’d be hell to pay if a liberal did it). ---
**Author:** ![DrCube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a3d4f5/32.png) [@DrCube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrCube)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2022, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/245 "2022-05-04T19:38:18Z")
Why is everyone acting like this is a confirmation that Roe will be overturned? Alito is just one justice. It takes five to make precedent. I know that’s what they were put on the bench for, but are we sure a majority of the court feels the same way as Alito? A more realistic expectation for me is that they don’t overturn Roe, but just gut it enough to allow the current slate of unconstitutional abortion bans to stand. Sort of like they did for the Voting Rights Act and Obamacare. I figured the justices all had a few different drafts prepared for different scenarios, and one of them got out. But that isn’t a guarantee or even convincing evidence that the whole court will rule the same way. I don’t claim to be an expert though. What am I missing? Why is everyone so sure this is they way they will rule? ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2022, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/246 "2022-05-04T19:52:54Z")
> [@DrCube](#): > > Why is everyone acting like this is a confirmation that Roe will be overturned? Alito is just one justice. It takes five to make precedent. > A person familiar with the court’s deliberations said that four of the other Republican-appointed justices — Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett — had voted with Alito in the conference held among the justices after hearing oral arguments in December, and that line-up remains unchanged as of this week. > **[Exclusive: Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion...](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473)** > > “We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” Justice Alito writes in an initial majority draft circulated inside the court. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2022, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/247 "2022-05-04T19:53:49Z")
> [@DrCube](#): > > Why is everyone acting like this is a confirmation that Roe will be overturned? Because the draft opinion reads like a majority opinion and says “Opinion of the Court” on it? Alito wouldn’t be doing that for fun, but only get to work on it if at least 5 justices indicated in conference that they were in favor of this argument. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2022, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/248 "2022-05-04T19:55:15Z")
> [@DrCube](#): > > Why is everyone acting like this is a confirmation that Roe will be overturned? Alito is just one justice. It takes five to make precedent. I know that’s what they were put on the bench for, but are we sure a majority of the court feels the same way as Alito? Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett. Which one do you think is going to vote against overturning _Roe v. Wade_ if it comes to to a decision? > [@DrCube](#): > > A more realistic expectation for me is that they don’t overturn Roe, but just gut it enough to allow the current slate of unconstitutional abortion bans to stand. Sort of like they did for the Voting Rights Act and Obamacare. There isn’t really much latitude to ‘gut it enough’ that isn’t already covered with _Planned Parenthood v. Casey_ which has allowed states to enact laws onerous restrictions on women seeking abortions. Overturning _Roe v. Wade_ is the _sine qua non_ of the the point of packing the court with conservative justices, and any of those justices who don’t support it are going to face a lot of criticism from their own side. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2022, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/249 "2022-05-04T20:13:36Z")
> [@ISiddiqui](#): > > Because the draft opinion reads like a majority opinion and says “Opinion of the Court” on it? I agree Alito probably has the votes, but he’d write it that way regardless. Hoping four other justices sign on. If he can’t get them to (a small but non-zero possibility) then he modifies the language as necessary. He was apparently assigned to write the majority opinion, but we don’t know if he has five votes to overturn Roe, only that he has five votes upholding the Mississippi law. He might have circulated this draft that goes all the way, just to see who signs on. (he might have also leaked it to show that the country wouldn’t explode if his colleagues sign on) ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2022, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/250 "2022-05-04T20:25:33Z")
If he was assigned the opinion to just to leave the Mississippi 15 week ban, but they didn’t discuss whether to keep Roe (which, they definitely would have discussed in conference), he would have written the draft opinion far more suspect. It reads like someone who got the go ahead to overturn Roe because of how strong the language is. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [May 4, 2022, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/251 "2022-05-04T20:34:55Z")
> [@ISiddiqui](#): > > It reads like someone who got the go ahead to overturn Roe because of how strong the language is. My understanding (not first hand of course) is that they write the opinion they want to write and try to get others to join it. In this case, probably, they discussed whether to overturn _Roe_ or not in conference. He might have the votes, or someone might have said, “write it up, and we’ll see how it looks.” This is why the process takes months. There are often many revisions. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/252 "2022-05-11T21:20:17Z")
Sorry if this has been covered somewhere but tl:dr for the multiple threads about the leaked opinion. My question is, how can a federal law like the one that failed to pass in the senate today overrule state laws forbidding abortion? In the absence of a recognized constitutional right, what is the federal government’s authority? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/253 "2022-05-11T21:49:04Z")
I think the federal government would say the commerce clause is what gives them the right. That has been used extremely broadly for ages by the federal government to allow all sorts of laws. And, of course, federal law pre-empts state law. That is in the constitution. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/254 "2022-05-11T22:50:27Z")
I’ve glanced at the draft of the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022. As far as I can tell it simply asserts that the Federal government has the full authority to regulate health care, including abortion, in the United States; any state law to the contrary or even the Ninth or Tenth Amendments be damned. When did that happen? ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/255 "2022-05-11T23:05:31Z")
Read the text of the 1996 Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act and determine how the Federal government had the authority to pass that. Once you have done so, you will have your answer. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2022, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/256 "2022-05-12T15:16:56Z")
Healthcare is about one-sixth of the U.S. economy IIRC and, as a business, it clearly crosses state lines. The Commerce Clause seems to fit the bill. And, if the U.S. Constitution protects the right to privacy and the right to make decisions about one’s healthcare without state interference, as the _Roe_ Court believed and as I still believe, then Congress may constitutionally pass a law enshrining _Roe_ in Federal law. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 14, 2022, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/257 "2022-05-14T03:04:55Z")
This is not Roe but I think we can see Alito is on a roll now and feels he can roll back a lot of rights he does not like: > **Alito Calls Landmark Supreme Court Decision Expanding LGBTQ Worker Rights ‘Indefensible’** > > Justice Samuel Alito is evidentially toting around an old grudge. > > At a Thursday night event at the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University, he had harsh words for the two conservative justices who joined the majority in _Bostock v. Clayton County_ . > > The 2020 opinion said that the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prohibits sex-based discrimination, extends to gay and transgender workers. Justice Neil Gorsuch wrote the majority opinion, in which he was joined by the liberals and Chief Justice John Roberts. > > Speaking via a video feed Thursday, Alito called Gorsuch a “colleague and friend,” but said that grounding the decision in the text of the 1964 law was “in my view indefensible,” [according to the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/12/samuel-alito-roe-wade-leak/). > > [SOURCE](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/alito-lgbtq-decision-gorsuch-indefensible) ---
**Author:** ![barath\_s](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/90ced4/32.png) [@barath\_s](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/barath_s)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2022, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/258 "2022-06-06T14:09:41Z")
If Roe v Wade is overturned, and if Congress passed a law, why would there not be a constitutional challenge to it? Which a court that overturned Roe vs Wade might take up on different premises ? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2022, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/259 "2022-06-06T14:38:24Z")
The conservative criticism against _Roe_ has always been that it has no basis in the Constitution. OK, then, Congress could create abortion rights by statute. Of course a vehemently anti-abortion judge might find some reason to strike down such a law, but that’s not to say that Congress shouldn’t pass it in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2022, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/260 "2022-06-06T15:07:36Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > OK, then, Congress could create abortion rights by statute. Of course a vehemently anti-abortion judge might find some reason to strike down such a law, but that’s not to say that Congress shouldn’t pass it in the first place. That begs the question of what authority the US Congress would have in hypothetically passing a law on an issue that the US Supreme Court is already outside of the the Constitutional jurisdiction of the federal government. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2022, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653/261 "2022-06-06T15:14:08Z")
_Roe_ was not based on the Commerce Clause; I suggested that any such bill could now be based it, for the reasons I mentioned. The Alito draft did not, as I read it, say that legislatively creating abortion rights would be “outside of… the Constitutional jurisdiction of the federal government.” But of course an energized conservative majority on SCOTUS can do pretty much whatever it wants on abortion. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-what-if-roe-v-wade-is-overturned/921653.md?page=14)