# So What's IRAN Up To? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 11, 2006, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286 "2006-04-11T22:54:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Fir\_na\_tine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Fir\_na\_tine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fir_na_tine)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2006, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/41 "2006-04-12T17:30:27Z")
> [@AHunter3](#): > > Did I mention they could be nuts? The worst possible reason of all is that the current leaders are increasingly followers of an apocalyptic sect of Christianity that actually wants war, because it will hasten the return of Jesus and the coming of the Apocalypse. > > ( [😉](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=7290041&postcount=4) ) This is the one that keeps me up nights. GB is a zealot and if he can find a way to wage his Holy War, he will. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2006, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/42 "2006-04-12T17:42:39Z")
> [@](#): > > ``` > An equally interesting question is why Iran is trumpeting this news everywhere, holding military manoevers, etc? > > ``` Because it makes perfect sense to do so, maybe ? Just look at this from their point of view. Saddam tried to take the opposite approach in 2002, he backed-down and let the inspectors back in, gave them access, and look what happened to him. So why not force a confrontation now ? If your going to get attacked away, why not get attacked at a time of YOUR choosing ? From Ahmadinejad’s point of view its going to improve his standing amoungst his electorate (amoungst secular Iranians, not just his conservative Islamic ‘base’). From a strategic point of view the US military is more vunerable now in the Middle East than its pretty much ever been. Iran has the chance to retalliate against the US and British military in Iraq its never had in the past and may not have in 5 or 10 years time. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2006, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/43 "2006-04-12T18:38:03Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > 1. They’re trying to fill the middle east power vacuum left by the incarceration of S. Hussein, and ascend to being the great power in the region. And you know what? They **will,** too! That’s how it’s gonna happen, nukes or no nukes. The only measures that could prevent Iran from becoming the great power in the region . . . do not even bear thinking about. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2006, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/44 "2006-04-12T18:40:10Z")
Is Ahmadinejad getting himself into the same situation that G. A. Nasser of Egypt did in 1966? i mean, the aggressive speeches, posturings, denunciations of israel, etc. I’m quite sure that nasser never considered that the Israelis would take his ravings seriously…he seemed surprised when he woke up one morning to find his airforce a smoking pile of cinders. It seems to be something inherent in posturing bullies…except you had better be prepared to have your adversaries actually DECIDE to take you seriously. In any case, I think both sides have 9sensibly) toned down the speeches. I don’t see the military option (of preventing Iran from getting Nukes) as worth the huge cost and risks. ---
**Author:** ![duality72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duality72/32/3910_2.png) [@duality72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duality72)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2006, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/45 "2006-04-12T18:46:01Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Again, I think the enrichm,ent thing is mostly symbolic. I have heard that the centrifuges they are using are not particularly reliable. I would worry that they might have a massive leak of UF6 gas-a disaster that could contaminate their plant and thousands of people. I wonder what the mullahs will say if they have a disater at one of their plants-say and explosion and fire with hundreds of casualties. of course, they could blame it on the USA and israel. I just can’t see this event as all that important just yet. But, they could [make a bomb in 16 days](http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=awSzbHpjozAo&refer=top_world_news)! We don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud, do we? Why does all this [sound familiar](http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/008209.php)? ---
**Author:** ![Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carnac_the_Magnificent)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2006, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/46 "2006-04-12T19:24:38Z")
> [@AHunter3](#): > > An equally interesting question is why the US government is trumpeting this news everywhere, threatening military retaliation and regime change, casually letting mention of the possibility of nuking Iran get some press, etc? The US has legitimate concerns over the nuclear-weaponization of Iran. Those aren’t Mary Kay salesmen over there. The problem is, the old rules don’t apply and we don’t have any encouraging replacements. But if allowed to run its course, the intensifying US-Iran brinksmanship can only result in military confrontation and then Pandora’s box is open. Neither the Bush administration nor Iran’s hardline leaders is going to back down. Iran is not going to negotiate away its nukes, nor would a concession be meaningful anyway. Europe understands this, but is playing its only card. If nothing else, this one will be for the history books. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2006, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/47 "2006-04-12T19:38:40Z")
> [@Carnac the Magnificent!](#): > > The US has legitimate concerns over the nuclear-weaponization of Iran. And as **RTFirefly’s** cite above shows, these concerns wouldn’t be on the front burner if the US hadn’t been stomping around with “pre-emptive strikes” in Iraq in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carnac_the_Magnificent)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 12:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/48 "2006-04-13T12:21:37Z")
> [@rjung](#): > > And as **RTFirefly’s** cite above shows, these concerns wouldn’t be on the front burner if the US hadn’t been stomping around with “pre-emptive strikes” in Iraq in the first place. Are you suggesting the US attack on Iraq in 2003 is responsible for Iran’s decade-long push for a nuclear arsenal? The US pre-emptive strikes against Iraq were obviously ill conceived, poorly executed, and summarily backfired, but Iran has long desired a nuclear military capability. I would agree that the Iraq war has hastened Iran’s urgency, but their nuclear ambitions were evident long before the US landed troops in Iraq or Afghanistan. Remember: In 1996 or 1997, the U.S. unsuccessfully tried to block China from selling iran a conversion plant and critical gas for uranium enrichment. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/49 "2006-04-13T17:57:39Z")
OK, let’s say I’m Iran. The President of the United States calls me part of an Axis of Evil[sup]TM[/sup], along with Iraq and North Korea. And then I watch while the US invades one “member” of this putative “axis” (the one that _doesn’t_ have nukes), and then does a careful diplomatic dance with the other “member” (the one that _does_ have nukes)-- and gives them boatloads of free rice. Given these events, it seems to me like it would be a good idea to join the nuclear club ASAP. ---
**Author:** ![aerodave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f08c70/32.png) [@aerodave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aerodave)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/50 "2006-04-13T18:30:58Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > So what, from their POV, would be a **bad** thing? Although it would never happen, the worst thing to break their win-win bluff would be a punishing strike from a non-US, non-Israel, and probably non-European country. A totally unexpected event like China or Russia (or even better, an Arab state) stepping in with an attack on their nuclear facilities…out of left field, you know? Sort of like the friend that smacks you upside the head before you drunkenly hurl the brick through the window. ---
**Author:** ![Frankenstein\_Monster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ccd318/32.png) [@Frankenstein\_Monster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frankenstein_Monster)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/51 "2006-04-13T18:42:39Z")
Here is a very detailed report by Anthony Cordesman that describes just about everything we know about “What’s Iran up to” (the page contains a link to a 111-page 1.76Mb PDF): [Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Uncertain Nature of Iran’s Nuclear Programs](http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,2733/type,1/) It basically says that it is impossible to prove or disprove whether or not they are developing nuclear bombs (until they test one); and also that it is practically impossible to keep them from developing nuclear bombs IF they were to decide to develop them. Also the report contains a nice description of the actual conflict with the IAEA. > [@](#): > > • First, the US, the EU, and the UN **all agree** that Iran has the right to acquire a full nuclear fuel cycle for peaceful purposes under Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) but there is no clear way to distinguish many of the efforts needed to acquire a nuclear weapon from such “legitimate” activities or pure research. > > • Second, Iran has never denied that it carries out a very diverse range of nuclear research efforts. In fact, it has openly claimed that it is pursuing nuclear technology and has a “national” right to get access to nuclear energy. This has given it a rationale for rejecting Russia’s offer to provide Iran nuclear fuel without giving Tehran the technology and the expertise needed to use it for weaponization purposes, **and the US agrees with this position,** and, > > • Third, it has never been clear whether Iran does have a “military” nuclear program that is separate from its “civilian” nuclear research. America and French officials have argued that they believe that Iran’s nuclear program would only make sense if it had military purposes. Both governments have yet to provide evidence to proof these claims. (my bolding) ---
**Author:** ![Frankenstein\_Monster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ccd318/32.png) [@Frankenstein\_Monster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frankenstein_Monster)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/52 "2006-04-13T18:56:08Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > OK, let’s say I’m Iran. > > The President of the United States calls me part of an Axis of Evil[sup]TM[/sup], along with Iraq and North Korea. > > And then I watch while the US invades one “member” of this putative “axis” (the one that _doesn’t_ have nukes), and then does a careful diplomatic dance with the other “member” (the one that _does_ have nukes)-- and gives them boatloads of free rice. > > Given these events, it seems to me like it would be a good idea to join the nuclear club ASAP. Actually, the report linked above suggests that the secret intention and concealment of their plans to develop a nuclear bomb already existed in the mid-70’s under the Shah. And after the revolution they only took it up again around the start of the Iraq-Iran war. (Everybody knows Israel bombed Iraq’s Osirak reactor… but didya know Iraq later bombed Iran’s Bushehr reactor… **six times** over two years!) But surely the current U.S. foreign policy does not help, either. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/53 "2006-04-13T20:31:19Z")
> [@Carnac the Magnificent!](#): > > Are you suggesting the US attack on Iraq in 2003 is responsible for Iran’s decade-long push for a nuclear arsenal? The US pre-emptive strikes against Iraq were obviously ill conceived, poorly executed, and summarily backfired, but Iran has long desired a nuclear military capability. I would agree that the Iraq war has hastened Iran’s urgency, but their nuclear ambitions were evident long before the US landed troops in Iraq or Afghanistan. Remember: In 1996 or 1997, the U.S. unsuccessfully tried to block China from selling iran a conversion plant and critical gas for uranium enrichment. I’ll let **rjung** speak for himself, but I personally wouldn’t suggest that. What I’d say instead is that whatever Iran might’ve been up to before 2003, after that point the ability to create nukes became the only correct move on the board, rather than a preferred course that a future Iranian government might’ve been persuaded to back away from. ---
**Author:** ![Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carnac_the_Magnificent)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/54 "2006-04-13T21:31:01Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > OK, let’s say I’m Iran. > > The President of the United States calls me part of an Axis of Evil[sup]TM[/sup], along with Iraq and North Korea. > > And then I watch while the US invades one “member” of this putative “axis” (the one that _doesn’t_ have nukes), and then does a careful diplomatic dance with the other “member” (the one that _does_ have nukes)-- and gives them boatloads of free rice. > > Given these events, it seems to me like it would be a good idea to join the nuclear club ASAP. You might try re-checking the chronology re: acquisition of nuclear technologies. Tehran began its covert int’l campaign way back when Bush was mismanaging the Texas Rangers. Also this: The deterrent value of nuclear weapons is proportionate to that nation’s leaders’ willingness to use them. It’s highly improbable that Iran would ever use its future nukes, should the US attack conventionally. Should Tehran decide to use them, the Iranian hardliners would have a life expentancy of about 45 minutes and Iran as we know it would be over. Ultimately, it’s hard to bluff a nation with 14,000 nukes and the world’s most powerful military. ---
**Author:** ![Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Carnac\_the\_Magnificent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carnac_the_Magnificent)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/55 "2006-04-13T21:33:29Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I’ll let **rjung** speak for himself, but I personally wouldn’t suggest that. > > What I’d say instead is that whatever Iran might’ve been up to before 2003, after that point the ability to create nukes became the only correct move on the board, rather than a preferred course that a future Iranian government might’ve been persuaded to back away from. Such persuasive ability has never existed on this planet–at least one not backed by threat of attack. Iran’s hardliners wanted a nuclear arsenal before the Iraq War or even Persian Gulf I. Do some Googling. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/56 "2006-04-13T21:51:37Z")
Probably irrelevant, but when Isarel destroyed Iraq’a OSIRAK reactor (in the 1980’s) did Saddam Hussein try to attack Israel? As I recall, Iraq sputtered and fumed, and delivered many speeches at the UN, but nothing much happened to Israel. Was this because most of the arab world was (secretly) relived that SH didn’t get his nukes? I wonder if a similar strike today would be met with the same silence? ---
**Author:** ![Loopydude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e56c9b/32.png) [@Loopydude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loopydude)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/57 "2006-04-13T22:02:42Z")
It’s really pretty simple: They have the bomb, we will never attack them. They don’t have the bomb, and an invasion is always a possibility. It worked for the DPRK, it’ll work for them. We go after North Korea, say bye-bye to Seoul. We go after Iran, say bye-bye to Tel Aviv, maybe. I’ve been concerned about weapons-grade fuel getting into the hands of Islamist extremists since it became painfully obvious Iran was going to try to make some bombs. There is now fuck and all we can do about it, so really, I’ve given up on debating the issue. Threatening Iran in any way puts a major squeeze on international oil markets as it is, so the needed support we’d get from Russia and/or China for any intervention with teeth will not be forthcoming. I just don’t think there’s anything for it. Iran will get the bomb, and the rest of the world will just have to deal. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/58 "2006-04-13T22:02:55Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > Probably irrelevant, but when Isarel destroyed Iraq’a OSIRAK reactor (in the 1980’s) did Saddam Hussein try to attack Israel? At that point Saddam had no way of attacking Isreal (except funding some palestinian terrorists, which he did). The point I made earlier is that at this point in time Iran DOES have an unbelivable oppurtunity to retaliate against the US and Britain in Iraq. IMO this is one of the main reasons why they obviously trying to force the issue now. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/59 "2006-04-13T23:18:18Z")
> [@Carnac the Magnificent!](#): > > You might try re-checking the chronology re: acquisition of nuclear technologies. Tehran began its covert int’l campaign way back when Bush was mismanaging the Texas Rangers. I am well aware of the chronology. Iran has long wanted nuclear weapons to deter attack by the US and/or Israel. (if you contend their motivations are otherwise, please elaborate.) What Bush policy has done is vindicate Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and given them added impetus. The contrast between our dealings with Iraq and our dealings with North Korea is an object lesson in the value of nuclear weapons technology. What Iran is “up to” is pursuit of a policy that makes perfect sense for the government of Iran. > [@Carnac the Magnificent!](#): > > The deterrent value of nuclear weapons is proportionate to that nation’s leaders’ willingness to use them. It’s highly improbable that Iran would ever use its future nukes, should the US attack conventionally. And you base that conclusion on what, exactly? On this notion?: > [@Carnac the Magnificent!](#): > > Should Tehran decide to use them, the Iranian hardliners would have a life expentancy of about 45 minutes and Iran as we know it would be over. Ultimately, it’s hard to bluff a nation with 14,000 nukes and the world’s most powerful military. North Korea seems to be doing a beautiful job of it. Iran is going to get nuclear weapons. It’s unfortunate, but from Iran’s perspective, it is the logical policy to pursue, and I don’t see where picking a fight with them does anyone any good. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2006, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286/60 "2006-04-13T23:19:45Z")
> [@Carnac the Magnificent!](#): > > Are you suggesting the US attack on Iraq in 2003 is responsible for Iran’s decade-long push for a nuclear arsenal? I think it’s _accelerated_ Iran’s efforts to get nukes, yes. “Axis of Evil” rhetoric aside, let’s not forget that Iran currently is bordered on three sides by (ostensibly) American allies – Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. You can’t blame them for feeling like they’re getting surrounded… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-whats-iran-up-to/352286.md?page=4)