So. What's the stock market going to do in 2008?

In My Humble Opinion
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[QUOTE=ParentalAdvisory]
These days, I tend to look at buying in the energy sector like this (or any “hot” stock/sector):
Today, you see a car that you want that is for sale and is priced at $5,000. You want to wait to see what it’ll be tomorrow.

Tomorrow comes and the car is now $5200, not too bad but it is increasing. You decide to hold off.

On the third day, the car is going for $6,000! Wow! “It must be a good car if it’s priced so high!” you say to your self.

On the fourth day, you see it’s $6,800.

On the fifth day, you decide to buy it at $7,200 before you lose out on any money in the coming days.

Anybody in there right mind wouldn’t do this with a car, why would they do it with stocks? That is how I view market timing and the misinformation about buying into the hype of something because someone else is. Sadly, this stuff is discussed around the water cooler everyday in related to “smart investing”.
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Exactly right. I used to pick my own stocks, based on what I read or just on a hunch. I failed miserably (big surprise). Once I came to the realization that a) I don’t know enough, and b) I don’t have time to do all the research, I gave Navellier a one-year try, figuring I couldn’t do any worse. I went from making $2500 to making $43,000, which speaks pretty damn loudly to me. And it’s not bullshit stocks or penny stocks, it’s companies with sound financials like Apple, Lockheed Martin, Monsanto, etc. He tells you when to buy, when to hold, and when to sell. All I hear from my 401(k) funds “management” is deafening silence while they rake in the handling fees.

22

It will fluctuate. Some days it’ll be higher, some days it’ll go down.

What do I win? :wink:

ETA: Dammit, I see that KlondikeGeoff beat me to it. :frowning:

23

[QUOTE=Chefguy]
Exactly right. I used to pick my own stocks, based on what I read or just on a hunch. I failed miserably (big surprise). Once I came to the realization that a) I don’t know enough, and b) I don’t have time to do all the research, I gave Navellier a one-year try, figuring I couldn’t do any worse. I went from making $2500 to making $43,000, which speaks pretty damn loudly to me. And it’s not bullshit stocks or penny stocks, it’s companies with sound financials like Apple, Lockheed Martin, Monsanto, etc. He tells you when to buy, when to hold, and when to sell. All I hear from my 401(k) funds “management” is deafening silence while they rake in the handling fees.
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Ok, that is an amazing feat (and a rare one). But can you expect to make 20%+ on individual stocks year after year on stock tips? Guys like Louis Navellier come and go and can never really sustain beating the market over the long term. Some may be successful in the span of a few years. But then run out of steam and will lose year after year with the same percentages you list, but in the negative. If he could do this year after year, wouldn’t everyone follow his advice?

After taxes and fees?

24

[QUOTE=Chefguy]
Index funds are for suckers. You’d be better off in a CD. Personally, I prefer individual stock investing, where you at least have control of where your money is. I stayed in growth stocks last year and made 37%. On the other hand, my Thrift Savings Plan money, which is in index funds, barely made anything. Growth stocks are still strong, despite recent downturns. Buy a reputable stock advisor newsletter, such as the ones put out by Louis Navellier, and stop letting others pick your slow death for you.
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Okay, well I put a lot of money in Asian index funds and made 80% return, but I don’t think that guarantees any future performance. I think your disdain for index funds is unwaranted. If nothing else, you have to admit that luck was some component of pulling off a 37% return in last year’s market.

I guess we’ll all find out in a year, eh?

So far, the optimism seems misplaced. :wink:

25

[QUOTE=ParentalAdvisory]
Ok, that is an amazing feat (and a rare one). But can you expect to make 20%+ on individual stocks year after year on stock tips? Guys like Louis Navellier come and go and can never really sustain beating the market over the long term. Some may be successful in the span of a few years. But then run out of steam and will lose year after year with the same percentages you list, but in the negative. If he could do this year after year, wouldn’t everyone follow his advice?
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He’s been beating the market for 22 years and is recognized by Hulberts as one of the top financial advisors around. His newsletters can be pricy, so many people don’t want to pony up the money on an unknown. I took the plunge because I was frustrated with poor returns.

The Blue Chip Growth newsletter cost me $395 for the year and my stock trades (which were very few) were $7 each at Scottrade. Not all stocks were winners, but most were. I’m not pimping for the guy, but I researched his record and methods before buying the newsletter. He has 50-some analysts working for him and the recommendations are based on sound financials.

26

[QUOTE=threemae]
Okay, well I put a lot of money in Asian index funds and made 80% return, but I don’t think that guarantees any future performance. I think your disdain for index funds is unwaranted. If nothing else, you have to admit that luck was some component of pulling off a 37% return in last year’s market.

I guess we’ll all find out in a year, eh?

So far, the optimism seems misplaced. :wink:
[/QUOTE]

As far as I can tell, the guy doesn’t deal in luck. Occasionally, a stock will get walloped, like Crocs (CROX) did this year, but nobody can predict that sort of thing. I lost 30% of my investment on that one, but since most of the others had solid gains (Apple up 90% for the year, for example), I could absorb the loss.

As for index funds, every one of them (that track the S&P) was flat last year, and the only reason I didn’t lose money with them is because I transferred all the shares into money market in the last quarter. Index funds work fine if value stocks are performing well, but last year it was all about growth stocks, with value stocks taking a beating. This coming year has me nervous, but I’m going to stick with the guy and see what happens.

Gotta love what the Chinese market did last year. Congrats on your Asian fund. Go Baidu (BIDU)!

27

I expect it to crash and burn, like I do every year. I have no money in it, because it seems so faith-based.

YMMV.