# So...When Does the Great Antarctic Land Grab Start? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 11, 2021, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784 "2021-04-11T08:39:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/1 "2021-04-11T08:39:19Z")
Mostly going for the catchy title. How bad does global warming have to get before Antarctica melts and we have another continent to ~~screw up~~ colonize? When do you think that would happen? How long for the Land Truly Down Under to lose enough ice for people to start moving in? What do you think? Vicious land grab or civilized divvying up of the resources? (I laugh - of course it will be a vicious land grab - by that time we’d have tens of millions, if not billions, of desperate people looking for a new place to live, major/super powers rushing in for all the juicy, juicy geological resources, etc…) Maybe this would have gone better in another category, but the questions above should have answers based somewhat in fact, although the mods are welcome to move it if it shuffles over to more opinion than facts. I could argue for “General Questions”, “Great Debates”, or “Opinion” so I rolled a gaming dice. ---
**Author:** ![Senegoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senegoid/32/6606_2.png) [@Senegoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Senegoid)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/3 "2021-04-11T11:41:05Z")
I see Real Estate hucksters selling ranchettes sight-unseen to all the wanna-be pioneers. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/4 "2021-04-11T11:44:19Z")
[Moderating] How quickly the ice will disappear is a factual question (albeit one very difficult to answer). How people will react to that is not. Moving to IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/5 "2021-04-11T11:45:34Z")
> [@Mundane\_Super\_Hero](#): > > I think there is a whole lot of gear up there already… nitpick, but I think you meant “down” there. 🙂 . ---
**Author:** ![Mundane\_Super\_Hero](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mundane_super_hero/32/6304_2.png) [@Mundane\_Super\_Hero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mundane_Super_Hero)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/6 "2021-04-11T11:59:09Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > nitpick, but I think you meant “down” there. 🙂 Whoopsies…! Wrong pole. Please delete my posts. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/7 "2021-04-11T14:12:45Z")
I think we’d need average artic temps to increase 15 C before there are long term colonization attempts. Probably 10 C before the bravest can make realistic attempts so if guys 5 C is where countries start making plays for ground. According to [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/) it looks like worldwide average would have to go up 2 C for the antarctic to go up 5 C. From looking around it seems 2050 is a decent number for when that will happen. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/8 "2021-04-11T14:20:50Z")
It’s not as if Antarctica is just a little too cold; it’s a LOT too cold. Virtually all of it is covered in ice, and it wouldn’t just take a few years to melt it. If somehow you could melt it faster, what open land there is would be subject to landslides and massive erosion. It’d be mush for a long time. Furthermore, the northernmost parts of Antarctica aren’t great for colonization anyway. They’re mountainous and rocky. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/9 "2021-04-11T15:19:20Z")
The last time Antarctica was ice-free was 34,000,000 years ago. I wouldn’t put all my life savings into potential Antarctic real estate if I were you. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/10 "2021-04-11T15:58:00Z")
Also, it’s not just about ice cover, it’s about available sunlight. Antarctica getting warmer and less ice-covered isn’t going to make it any less south, geographically speaking. Almost all of Antarctica is south of 65 degrees, and most of it south of 70 degrees, meaning that it’s going to have at least two months of near-total darkness every year. Habitations at comparable latitudes in the north have the warming effect of the Gulf Stream, and also are connected by land to warmer and more populous regions. A multi-hour plane and/or boat trip across the Southern Ocean just to get to a place whose latitude is more polar than Reykjavik in Iceland and whose climate is much harsher is not going to be an attractive colonization prospect. Come back in a few million years or more when [the forests have regrown](https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/did-antarctica-ever-have-trees). ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/11 "2021-04-11T21:10:07Z")
It will depend on when any precious materials or anything else worthwhile underground can be economically extracted. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/12 "2021-04-11T22:18:06Z")
Miskatonic University found some interesting geological aberrations in their 1930 Antarctic expedition. Perhaps if some of the ice clears up we can go back and get a better look? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/13 "2021-04-11T22:22:27Z")
I was actually looking for a slightly more serious reply… ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/14 "2021-04-11T22:22:35Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > It will depend on when any precious materials or anything else worthwhile underground can be economically extracted [Outlook not bright:](https://discoveringantarctica.org.uk/challenges/sustainability/mineral-resources/) > [@](#): > > There are known reserves of oil and coal as well as mineral deposits in Antarctica, although detailed knowledge of these mineral deposits is sketchy. In the last 50 years of scientific research, no large deposits of mineralized rocks have been found. Mining in Antarctica would be very difficult, dangerous and expensive as the climate is so harsh, the ice is very thick and Antarctica is very remote from major centres of population. This would make the transportation of minerals and equipment in and out of Antarctica hazardous. Mining an Antarctica de-iced by anthropogenic climate change in order to get more oil and coal sounds like a textbook case of Not Learning Our Lesson The First Time. ---
**Author:** ![nightshadea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/7ba0ec/32.png) [@nightshadea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nightshadea)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/15 "2021-04-11T22:27:42Z")
actually a recent complaint is too many old and rotting “prestige” research stations with skeleton crews are there and its messing the place up ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2021, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/17 "2021-04-11T23:19:14Z")
By the time the general public gets word, insider deals pretty much guarantee that it will be called “The Great Antarctic Land Already Grabbed”. ---
**Author:** ![mikecurtis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mikecurtis/32/3284_2.png) [@mikecurtis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mikecurtis)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2021, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/18 "2021-04-12T00:47:22Z")
Considering that most of the continent is covered by ice between 1- 2 **miles** thick it will take along time for the surface to be exposed. At current melt rates the entire planet could be ice free in 5000 years. With Antarctica most likely being the last hold out. Many models predict that the sea ice around it could be gone by 2100 which I guess would start to expose the shore line. But, all that ice melting will raise sea levels which would probably inundate the exposed shore. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2021, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/19 "2021-04-12T01:24:18Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > Mining an Antarctica de-iced by anthropogenic climate change in order to get more oil and coal sounds like a textbook case of Not Learning Our Lesson The First Time. So no land grab for a while. It could be the next Australia though, with various countries shipping their convicts there. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2021, 8:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/20 "2021-04-12T08:27:25Z")
Convicts and climate change refugees, I’d expect. With a few enclaves of wealthy people, heavily fortified against the peasants. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2021, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/21 "2021-04-12T14:41:20Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > How bad does global warming have to get before Antarctica melts and we have another continent to ~~screw up~~ colonize? Very, very bad. > [@Broomstick](#): > > When do you think that would happen? Centuries even at our current rate. > [@Broomstick](#): > > What do you think? Vicious land grab or civilized divvying up of the resources? If Antarctica is ice-free, civilization as we know it would already be a dim memory. > [@Broomstick](#): > > by that time we’d have tens of millions, if not billions, of desperate people You’re needlessly optimistic of how many people will be alive, in the kind of world that would have to exist to have an ice-free Antarctica in it. Why would the last remnants of humanity, huddled in their chilled Arctic domes in the only latitudes where people can be outside for more than a few minutes without broiling, look to the other side of the planet? That would involve crossing the killing heat of the Great Oven of the inter-tropical zone. It’s a suicide mission… ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2021, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784/22 "2021-04-12T14:55:42Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > How bad does global warming have to get before Antarctica melts and we have another continent to ~~screw up~~ colonize? If Antarctica melted, the sea levels would rise 230 feet. It would also mean that all ice on the earth would be gone, and temperatures would skyrocket. I’m thinking that, at that point, the human race would have pretty much ghosted itself and wouldn’t be settling anything, anywhere. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-when-does-the-great-antarctic-land-grab-start/939784.md?page=2)