# So where's the inflation, fucktards?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-wheres-the-inflation-fucktards/546932>\
**Category:** The BBQ Pit\
**Created:** [July 16, 2010, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-wheres-the-inflation-fucktards/546932 "2010-07-16T16:40:23Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 32

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**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\
**Post date:** [July 18, 2010, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-wheres-the-inflation-fucktards/546932/32 "2010-07-18T03:31:45Z")

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> [@Scylla](#):
>
> This is just bullshit.  
> I’m a portfolio manager, and I have access to an extremely broad spectrum of research and analysis.
> 
> Krugman wasn’t saying anything that about half of Wall Street was saying. There was nothing particularly controversial or sensational about it.
> 
> It’s well understood that two possible nasty consequences of our Governments’ efforts to provide stimulus are a long term high inflation environment, or a long term deflationary environment.
> 
> So far we have **neither**. Hopefully we will not have **either**. At the moment we are slightly deflationary. A few months ago we were slightly inflationary. The European situation increased the relative value of the dollar as the de facto secure currency and US Treasuries as the riskless asset.  
> You are correct though that Krugman’s POV was wholly consistent with that of the major economic forecasters. But they aren’t being pitted, are they?
> 
> That was likely to be a very temporary thing. The jury is still out on the long term trend. Deflation is certainly the larger danger.
> 
> Those are the facts. That being the case I hate ignorant revisionist idiots who play games with the truth for political purposes.
> 
> You don’t know what you are talking about, so you should shut up.

So, help me He Who Knows What He’s Talking About. By what mechanism would a stimulus package cause deflation? I for one cannot think of one. (Did you mean inadequate stimulus might cause deflation? In that case, my pitting is retracted.)

“A few months ago we were slightly inflationary.”

Oh. Let’s look at the percentage change of the core CPI (less the volatile food and energy categories, so as to understand underlying price pressures), year over year:

```auto

2009-01-01	1.7
2009-02-01	1.8
2009-03-01	1.8
2009-04-01	1.9
2009-05-01	1.8
2009-06-01	1.7
2009-07-01	1.6
2009-08-01	1.4
2009-09-01	1.5
2009-10-01	1.7
2009-11-01	1.7
2009-12-01	1.8
2010-01-01	1.5
2010-02-01	1.3
2010-03-01	1.2
2010-04-01	1.0
2010-05-01	1.0
2010-06-01	1.0 

```

That looks to me like declining inflation. Heck, we could even be experiencing deflation now, given that we’re seeing 1 year percentage changes above.

Personally, I think the fears of hyperinflation that were circulating a year ago were delusional (or, rather, they were based upon a framework that has been resoundly refuted.) I find it highly plausible thought that core inflation could go to 3-4% – heck I think core inflation should go that high, so that we can avoid liquidity traps in the future. But 3-4% inflation is nothing to get hysterical about, unless you are predisposed to that emotion anyway.  
You are correct that Krugman’s POV was consistent with that of the major forecasters. But they aren’t being pitted in the OP, are they?

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