I know that. What I’m saying is that nuclear power won’t make up for a lack of gasoline being imported. Either the gasoline must be imported or refining capacity increased so petroleum can be processed into gasoline. Nuclear power won’t change that. It’d make more petroleum available for processing, if the current power plants were oil-fired, but if supply of crude oil isn’t the problem, nuclear won’t fix it. It might free up domestic refining capacity - do the same refineries produce fuel oil and produce gasoline? Do they have oil-fired power plants and if so, do they refine their own oil for them?
Oh, I see what you mean.
Yes, the same refineries can generally produce fuel oil (distillates). Gasoline was originally a byproduct of the refining process; until the 1880s or so it was just burned off or poured away because they couldn’t find a use for it.
Iran has enough refining capacity for distillate needs, but it doesn’t have enough capacity to meet its gasoline needs. If it could power itself some other way it could recalibrate its existing refineries to produce much more gasoline.
None of this is to say that Iran really wants nuclear stuff for civilian applications. Maybe it does, but I think it’s naive to suggest they wouldn’t also like some weapons (and it would be naive to say it doesn’t need them, too.)
Sorry, RNTB, I think I misread you. And it’s too late to edit.
Though now that I think about it, I suppose there might be an issue with generators using fuel if there isn’t sufficient electricity supplied and nuclear power decreasing command for that. Provided the grid is sufficient. I really probably never should have posted; I don’t know enough about the situation in Iran.
If this link from Steken is correct for Saudi Arabia:
The Saudis burn about a quarter of the oil they produce—and their domestic consumption has been rising at an alarming 7 percent a year, nearly three times the rate of population growth. According to a widely read December 2011 report by Chatham House, a British think tank, if this trend continues, domestic consumption could eat into Saudi oil exports by 2021 and render the kingdom a net oil importer by 2038.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/07/saudis-solar-energy/395315/
Then I think that there is reason to believe that your 2,500 year assertion should have some backing before it’s taken at value.
One of the points raised in the book “Twilight In The Desert” was the SA government’s secrecy about Saudi oil production. The book’s contention is that SA oil reserves are shrinking…fast. No major oil fields discovered in the last 40 years-…pumping saltwater in to raise production.
It will be interesting to see what happens if SA oil production declines abruptly-what will they do? The kingdom has no industry, little agriculture, and an elite that is idle. can they buy enough financial assets (like Norway), to fund their lifestyle without oil?
They do have some domestic industry, and they have been diversifying (or at least attempting to) since the 1970s.
Their problem is that Saudis are largely not trained to do the jobs they’ll need in the future, so building universities is a priority.
This is kind of silly; the trend exists because there is so much excess wealth from oil. As oil revenues decline, oil consumption will naturally follow.
It seems silly if one is taking it as a prediction rather than a description of the current situation.
If it’s just meant to describe the current trends, it seems to do that.
It doesn’t seem to indicate any reason why the trends cannot change. The quote seems to imply that the current trends will change