# So will anybody ever trust the polls again? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 4, 2020, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-anybody-ever-trust-the-polls-again/924714 "2020-11-04T05:49:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 181
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2020, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-anybody-ever-trust-the-polls-again/924714/181 "2020-11-09T17:51:37Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > How accurate are the betting markets? > [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > ISTM that the betting markets (at least PredictIt, which is the one I followed) were pretty bad this cycle. I put together a pretty long post on this in a different thread. PredictIt was a superior predictor of electoral vote awarding entities the entire cycle. PredictIt in May was better than 538 in November. If you looked at the lean of all 56 PredictIt markets for electoral vote awarding entities at the end of May and then went into an induced coma until mid-November, you would be mildly surprised by Georgia. The other 55 were correct. > [@Looking at the 2020 election, what conclusions should we draw about poll analysis sites like 538, etc.?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/looking-at-the-2020-election-what-conclusions-should-we-draw-about-poll-analysis-sites-like-538-etc/925089/12): > > Some of this analysis is preliminary and subject to change if any states flip from what they look like now due to recounts or court cases. This assumes Biden will win the EC 306 - 232 538 correctly predicted 53 of the 56 electoral vote awarding entities (~95%). He only missed Florida, Maine CD-02, and North Carolina. He had Biden’s probability of winning each of those at less than 51%. All of that is pretty good. What’s making him look bad is that all his misses were in the same direction so h… --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-anybody-ever-trust-the-polls-again/924714)._