# So Will The Sky Fall If The UN Declare Palestine a State? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 4, 2011, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182 "2011-09-04T19:54:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2012, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/501 "2012-12-10T00:50:10Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Perhaps not, but what the Israelis **don’t** want is an independent Arab Gaza on their borders. What makes you say that. Ariel Sharon probably would have supported it had Hamas behaved differently following the removal of settlers from the area. BTW, I’m curious about your earlier propasal to have the Palestinians forced into a stated based on(your words) “the Israeli model” where they’d be forced to salute a flag with a Star of David, put up with their newspapers being forced to be approved by a censor, prevented from having a party they’d approve of to vote for, forced to send their children to seperate schools, forced to endure a racist immigration law in which any Jew anywhere in the world could become a citizen, but that wouldn’t be true for Palestinians, and where they’d be reminded in a thousand small ways they were second-class citizens? What pray tell made you think for two seconds any self-respecting Palestinian would agree to that? What made you argue for “the Israeli model” for a one-state solution as opposed to a Canadian or American model? Thanks in advance for your answer. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2012, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/502 "2012-12-10T01:44:02Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > What makes you say that. Ariel Sharon probably would have supported it had Hamas behaved differently following the removal of settlers from the area. > > BTW, I’m curious about your earlier propasal to have the Palestinians forced into a stated based on(your words) “the Israeli model” where they’d be forced to salute a flag with a Star of David, put up with their newspapers being forced to be approved by a censor, prevented from having a party they’d approve of to vote for . . . What? Hamas would be in the Knessit and so would Hezbollah. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2012, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/503 "2012-12-10T02:05:44Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What? Hamas would be in the Knessit and so would Hezbollah. Er… how would either of them be in the Knesset? Please don’t tell me you think Israel lets any political party put up candidates for election to the Knesset that wants to. I assume you’re familiar with the Kach party and don’t have to run to wikipedia or google to find out what I’m talking about. You do realize what you were advocating when you said your “one-state solution” would follow “the Israeli model” rather than “the American model”? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2012, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/504 "2012-12-10T02:21:51Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > Yes. > > (It is, of course, meaningless to talk about what “Israel wants,” as there are lots and lots of points of view expressed within Israeli politics. So I will say: I believe that there are many Israelis – whether or not a majority, I do not know – whose goals do not include annexation of the West Bank or Gaza.) > [@Puzzler](#): > > Another Yes. > > And to add to what **Trinopus** said – even the majority of those who would _like_ an Israel which include both WB and G, realize now that it’s now a viable solution, and are willing to compromise. OK. I think it’s rational to conclude that not all (as both of you show) Israelis are extreme nationalists. But again, are you not part of a minority? Because if you weren’t, Israel wouldn’t keep electing one extreme right-wing nationalist Gov after another. Therefore making a two-state solution more and more implausible. > [@Terr](#): > > Apart from **RedFury** , apparently, it would be almost impossible to find anyone who would think that Israel wants Gaza. Even the most fervent “Eretz Yisrael Ha-shlema” adherents would readily admit that Gaza was never historically part of it. Fine, I’ll take your word for it. So what do you think happens with Gaza? They aren’t Egyptians in so far as I know. ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2012, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/505 "2012-12-10T02:25:22Z")
Once more I’d like someone to address the question of what happens to _Palestinians_ should there be no definition on their statehood? ‘Banning’ any response from **Brazil** of course. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2012, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/506 "2012-12-10T03:18:58Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > Once more I’d like someone to address the question of what happens to _Palestinians_ should there be no definition on their statehood? ‘Banning’ any response from **Brazil** of course. As long as Palestinians want to kill Jews more than they want to have a state, they will live in misery and poverty. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2012, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/507 "2012-12-10T03:24:22Z")
> [@RedFury](#): > > OK. I think it’s rational to conclude that not all (as both of you show) Israelis are extreme nationalists. But again, are you not part of a minority? Because if you weren’t, Israel wouldn’t keep electing . . . Just for clarity, I’m a U.S. citizen (Californian.) Not even Jewish. ---
**Author:** ![Puzzler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d07c76/32.png) [@Puzzler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Puzzler)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2012, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/508 "2012-12-10T21:40:07Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Ok, let’s do some math. First of all, will you accept Terr’s cites from Post #? If not, I can try to find something more authoritative. I read the link posted above, but didn’t follow on the bibliography. While I’d be glad to get a more reliable source, I’ll take that as true for now. One thing to remember is that past trends don’t necessarily continue into the future. > [@](#): > > Next, let’s look at the phenomenal rate of growth of Jewish settlements on the West Bank. According to Wikipedia, that rate is approximately 5 to 6 percent per year. Let’s assume that part of that is due to immigration and take a figure of 4% per year as the growth rate due to good old fashioned reproduction. > > Note that one can expect this rate to go up over time as the breeders become a larger and larger percentage of the population. > > At the moment there are about 650,000 Jews living on the West Bank and Eastern Jerusalem. Thus, at an annual growth rate of 4%, one can expect that in 100 years about 32 million Jews. This may be a high estimate, but it’s pretty easy to see that in 6 or so generations, there is likely to be a huge number of Jews living in the area. > > Ok, now what about the Arab side? According to Wikipedia, the Arab population of the West Bank and East Jerusalem is approximately 2.5 million people and a growth rate of 2.09 percent. Is that growth rate increasing or decreasing? I think it’s pretty well known to be decreasing. I did a Google search and found [this paper](http://paa2007.princeton.edu/papers/70527) which claims that Arab fertility rates are dropping on the West Bank. Let me know if you are skeptical on this issue and I will try to find some more sources. > > Anyway, if we start with 2.5 million people and assume a growth rate of 2.0 percent for the next hundred years, you end up with about 18 million people. This estimate is almost certainly high since fertility rates among the Arabs are likely to keep declining to replacement and perhaps lower. Just like fertility rates declined just about everywhere in the world except among devout Christians and Jews. > > Of course, you might quibble with some of my numbers, but I think it’s pretty clear that it’s totally reasonable to expect a comfortable Jewish majority on the West Bank in the next 50 to 100 years. Arab population on the West Bank is likely to level off whereas Jewish population is likely to keep exploding. It won’t take too many doublings for the Jewish population to get ahead. OK, under the above assumptions, the math works fine. But, it also tells you that the math simply cannot tell the whole story. I’m sure you realize that the WB simply can’t support 50 million people. > [@](#): > > It’s a guess in the same way I guess that it will snow somewhere in the United States in the next 2 months. I already realized that you’re completely certain about it. While I worry it may be true, I still think it’s possible to try to get to an agreement that will minimize the risk. > [@](#): > > But let’s see if I understand your position: You believe that it’s immoral to limit the rights of a group of people unless you are absolutely certain of a bad outcome without those limits? What’s with the hyperboles? I weight the factors, and if I think that the immoral outcome is worse than the risk, and that the risk is containable, I will follow the moral path. > [@](#): > > You didn’t say it explicitly but you seem to have implied it. Well, you misunderstood. > [@](#): > > Let me ask you this: Why shouldn’t Israel agree to Palestinian Statehood and withdraw from (most of) the West Bank right now? By occupying an area without giving citizenship and voting rights to the people there, isn’t Israel behaving immorally in your view? Why shouldn’t Israel cease its immoral behavior immediately? Because, there are two sides to the story. And because, immorality doesn’t “trumps any other principle”. I think the two sides should make concessions. And then there may be peace. Until such time as the Palestinians don’t agree to (what I see as) elementary demands from Israel, we don’t have any obligations to withdraw. > [@](#): > > Lol, that stuff has been going on since 1947 and will continue regardless of whether Israel annexes the West Bank. Oversimplifying things. ---
**Author:** ![Puzzler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d07c76/32.png) [@Puzzler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Puzzler)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2012, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/509 "2012-12-10T21:42:35Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Whereas “the Jews” have a fantastic track record when it comes to treating ethnic minorities well, as the Arab Israelis can testify to. And yet, many Israeli Arabs would never dream of forgoing their Israeli nationality for a Palestinian one. Guess Israel may be not so bad after all. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2012, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/510 "2012-12-11T00:43:33Z")
> [@Puzzler](#): > > And yet, many Israeli Arabs would never dream of forgoing their Israeli nationality for a Palestinian one. Guess Israel may be not so bad after all. True, just as during Apartheid, South Africa was surrounded by black nations and few, if any black South Africans sought refuge within one of them while black Zimbabweans flooded South Africa. I guess Apartheid wasn’t too bad. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2012, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/511 "2012-12-11T05:27:16Z")
South African Apartheid wasn’t as bad as, say, living in the Central African Empire. Living is Israel isn’t as bad as living in Gaza. What’s your point? ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2012, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/512 "2012-12-11T06:43:16Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > South African Apartheid wasn’t as bad as, say, living in the Central African Empire. Living is Israel isn’t as bad as living in Gaza. What’s your point? Ok, I’ll bring you up to speed. Puzzler very strongly implied that life couldn’t be that bad for Israeli Arabs because few chose to give up “their Israeli nationality” for “a Palestinian one”. Now, in making such a statement he appears to ignore that according to the Israelis themselves being an Israeli is not a matter of “nationality” but of “citizenship”. In fact, until recently all Israelis had to carry IDs specifically declaring their “nationality”. He didn’t apparently realize that Israeli Arabs are already Palestinians. Now, presumably what he was trying, rather clumsily was to suggest that since they didn’t want to give up their second class citizenship in Israel to become part of an occupied territory with little power and few rights that testified to Israel being somehow or other a country with a proud record regarding the treatment of minorities rather than a racist country based on an archaic form of blood and soil nationalism in which belonging to the wrong nationality makes you legally inferior to the main nationality within. I sarcastically pointed out that using Puzzler’s logic, life couldn’t be so bad for South African Blacks under Apartheid because few fled to Zimbabwe or Namibia. Incidentally, your choice of Bokassa’s piece of shit little kingdom which lasted two years makes no sense because it wasn’t remotely close to South African and the Blacks of the Central African Republic are about as culturally like South African blacks as Canadians are like Jordanians. I hope I’ve answered your question and caught you up on the discussion between myself and Puzzler. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2012, 8:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/513 "2012-12-11T08:36:44Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > . . . I hope I’ve answered your question and caught you up on the discussion between myself and Puzzler. Well, no thank you at all for the snark, and I don’t think you’ve actually answered my question. As far as I can tell, you’re playing this for victory points, not for meeting-of-minds discussion. Not helpful in the slightest. I’ll get useful answers from **Finn Again** , I guess. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2012, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/514 "2012-12-11T09:58:03Z")
> [@Puzzler](#): > > I read the link posted above, but didn’t follow on the bibliography. While I’d be glad to get a more reliable source, I’ll take that as true for now. > One thing to remember is that past trends don’t necessarily continue into the future. > OK, under the above assumptions, the math works fine. > But, it also tells you that the math simply cannot tell the whole story. I’m sure you realize that the WB simply can’t support 50 million people. I agree that the math doesn’t tell the whole story, but it does show that the underlying argument is essentially correct. The Arab population is trending towards leveling off like most other populations in the world. The Jewish population is exploding and there is every reason to think it will continue to do so. Thus, it’s reasonable to expect (even if it is still uncertain) that in 50 to 100 years there will be a Jewish majority on the West Bank. It’s also worth noting that with 50 million people, the West Bank would have a population density far lower than that of Macau or Singapore. And about equal to that of the Gaza Strip right now. You might also ask yourself this question: If people start leaving the West Bank because it’s getting to crowded, who is more likely to leave. Seems to me that the least likely to leave are the religious settler types. > [@](#): > > I already realized that you’re completely certain about it. While I worry it may be true, I still think it’s possible to try to get to an agreement that will minimize the risk. Are you aware that kust last year, one of the Senior Palestinian Authority leaders stated in effect in an Arabic interview that the ultimate goal is to put an end to Israel? How do you propose to make this attitude go away? > [@](#): > > What’s with the hyperboles? I weight the factors, and if I think that the immoral outcome is worse than the risk, and that the risk is containable, I will follow the moral path. I’m just trying to figure out your position. Earlier, I said this: > [@](#): > > What I favor doing is waiting until the West Bank is majority Jewish and then annexing it. Based on the fertility rates of the settlers, this is very likely to happen in the next 50 to 100 years. Here was part of your response: > [@](#): > > It would be immoral and simply wrong. * * * > [@](#): > > Well, you misunderstood. Apparently so. > [@](#): > > Because, there are two sides to the story. And because, immorality doesn’t “trumps any other principle”. Well there you go. In a more ideal world, Israel would pull out of the West Bank; the Palestinian Arabs would get their own state there. They would offer citizenship to any Jews who happened to be living there, as well as to the so-called “refugees.” The new country would live in peace with Israel. That is the most moral solution. Unfortunately, the world is far less ideal. Most importantly, the Palestinian Arabs have demonstrated time and time again the consensus in their thinking, which is that putting an end to Jewish Israel is far more important than having their own state or doing anything constructive. So one needs to ask what is the best solution in the far less ideal world we live in. And that is to annex. And by your reasoning, one cannot dismiss this solution as immoral unless one is reasonably confident that there is a better solution. Let me ask you this: Given the statements I quoted from just last year indicating that the goal is to put an end to Israel; given the announcement that a Palestinian state would NOT offer citizenship to “refugees,” even those living on the West Bank itself; given Abbas’ announcement that a Palestinian State would be used to pursue lawfare against Israel; and given all the misconduct of the Arabs over the last 50 years which continues to this day, what is your evidence that a Palestinian State would not be used for destructive purposes? Do you have anything besides your own wishes? > [@](#): > > Oversimplifying things. What exactly am I missing? The world hates Israel and always has. The sky did not fall when Israel annexed the Golan Heights or Eastern Jerusalem. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2012, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/515 "2012-12-11T16:05:33Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > Well, no thank you at all for the snark, and I don’t think you’ve actually answered my question. As far as I can tell, you’re playing this for victory points, not for meeting-of-minds discussion. Not helpful in the slightest. > > I’ll get useful answers from **Finn Again** , I guess. Ok, I’m sorry if I pissed you off and apologize for going a little too far. The point was that Puzzler argued that Israel couldn’t be “too bad” for the Israeli Arabs to live since they weren’t moving to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. I pointed out that using similar logic then life couldn’t have been all that bad for blacks in South Africa under Apartheid because they didn’t flee to Zimbabwe. For that matter, based on Puzzler’s logic life as a black person in 19th Century America couldn’t have been that bad since most didn’t go to either Haiti or Liberia, despite being intensively encouraged to. In short, his logic didn’t hold. Now, does that mean that being an Israeli Arab is a bad as being a Palestinian on the West Bank or a black person in Apartheid South Africa? No. But it does mean that Israel has a miserable track record when it comes to the treatment of it’s Arab minority. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2012, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/516 "2012-12-11T22:28:51Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Ok, I’m sorry if I pissed you off and apologize for going a little too far. For my part, I apologize also, as my challenge was, itself, too snarky. I realized this some time during the night, sleeplessly recounting the discussion. > [@](#): > > The point was that Puzzler argued that Israel couldn’t be “too bad” for the Israeli Arabs to live since they weren’t moving to the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. > > I pointed out that using similar logic then life couldn’t have been all that bad for blacks in South Africa under Apartheid because they didn’t flee to Zimbabwe. My problem is that this appears to be used as an rhetorical equivalence. But it really isn’t. Israeli Arabs have far more rights than black South Africans have. Bloody hell: they have the vote! They’re actual true citizens. Black South Africans didn’t and weren’t. So, to me, it appeared to be a thrust in the debate that was fallacious. I do have a question, to which I have no notion of the answer: what would happen if a group of Israeli Arabs emigrated to, say, Jordan or Egypt, and made a big public case of how bad Israel was to them? Would they be celebrated, feted, rewarded, and a big publicity campaign made around them? If so…why doesn’t this happen, and often? Because, under apartheid, many black South Africans did this, and it had a huge effect on public opinion. > [@](#): > > . . . Now, does that mean that being an Israeli Arab is a bad as being a Palestinian on the West Bank or a black person in Apartheid South Africa? > > No. But it does mean that Israel has a miserable track record when it comes to the treatment of it’s Arab minority. My error, then, is thinking you were constructing an equivalence. Personally, I would say that Israel treats its Arab minority better than the U.S. treated its Japanese minority in 1942, and perhaps better than the U.S. treats its Navajo and Hopi minorities today. The proportion of Arabs in the Knesset is surely higher than the proportion of Navajo and Hopis in Congress. (13 of 120, vs., as far as I can find, none…) ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2012, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/517 "2012-12-11T22:49:10Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > and perhaps better than the U.S. treats its Navajo and Hopi minorities today. The proportion of Arabs in the Knesset is surely higher than the proportion of Navajo and Hopis in Congress. > > (13 of 120, vs., as far as I can find, none…) The Arab Israelis make up 20% of the Israeli population. That certainly isn’t true of the Hopi or the Navajo so I don’t think that a remotely useful statistic for comparison. Also, while most of what I know of the Hopi and the Navajo comes from Tony Hillerman books, I can say that Native American reservations and their residents have vastly more autonomy than do the Arab Israelis. Also, having spent four years in Minnesota I can assure you that Native American children go to school with white children. That certainly isn’t true of Arab Israelis. Aside from college they have to send their children to separate schools and the Israelis don’t even pretend that the schools are remotely equal. Similarly, I knew the author of a Native American newspaper from the reservation and he did not have to submit any article in his newspaper before a military censor the way Arab language newspapers have to submit their articles to an Israeli newspaper censor. Amongst other things, there was always controversy over which maps could and couldn’t be shown. Admittedly, foreign newspapers also had to submit their articles before a military censor. In one of the most notorious cases, the Hebrew language version of The New York Times wasn’t allowed to print an interview with the then former PM Yitzhak Rabin in which Rabin discussed the ethnic cleansing campaign he’d been involved with during the 1948 War. Whether this is still true or not, I’m not sure. I’m certainly not going to defend the way minorities are treated in the US(and think I have some authority to discuss it) but no, it’s in no way as bad as Arab Israelis are treated. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2012, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/518 "2012-12-12T01:59:28Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > The Arab Israelis make up 20% of the Israeli population. That certainly isn’t true of the Hopi or the Navajo so I don’t think that a remotely useful statistic for comparison. . . . I did say “proportion.” The proportion of Hopis and Navajos in Congress – properly calculated on the basis of population – is less than the proportion of Arab Israelis in the Knesset. Anyway…have Israeli Arabs made a point of leaving and protesting conditions? I’ve been trying to find useful facts via Google, but it is difficult, as too many of the sites I find are uncomfortably strident and extremist. I don’t like to be in the position of rejecting a site as biased…but biased sites certainly do exist. ---
**Author:** ![Puzzler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d07c76/32.png) [@Puzzler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Puzzler)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2012, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/519 "2012-12-12T21:32:06Z")
**Ibn Warraq** , I don’t mind you trying to speculate about what I do or do not realize. I would appreciate, though, if you’d refrain from grading my skills (“rather clumsily”). Thank you. To get things straight – I was not talking about Israeli Arabs leaving for the WB or the GS. I was talking just about citizenship. You may have heard that one of the suggestions that were raised as a possible solution to the IP situation in general and to the settlements issue in particular, was land swaps. That is, the future, agreed upon borders of Israel would deviate from the 1967 borders to include the major settlements blocks, and in compensation, the future, agreed upon Palestine border would be modified to include the same amount of land from territories that were part of Israel before '67. Now, for those who were trying to follow that route, one of the key questions was what bit of land the Palestinians would get. One suggestion discussed the Um El Fahm region, which has multiple Arab cities and villages, and a large majority of Arab population. When asked in polls, the population there declined the suggestion. So, once more, to be absolutely clear: we’re talking about Israeli Arabs, who are, by their own admission, of Palestinian nationality; who would remain in their current homes, cities, and communities, on the very patch of land they now reside in; and who would have to endure very little change to their day-to-day life, with one exception –they would forgo the citizenship of the racist, evil Israel, to gain in return a citizenship of an independent Palestine, where they’ll be equal citizens, not second class ones. And they declined the offer. I will leave it to you to speculate about the reasons for that. Now, that doesn’t mean that everything is all nice and dandy for the Arab minority. There are multiple reasons for that. To a certain degree, it is almost unavoidable, as we’re talking about a large minority, who aligns themselves with the declared enemies of the country they live in; to a large extent, It’s the fault of the Israeli governments who failed to assimilate them (though some have tried); and to some degree it is their own fault (the Arab places usually have lower standard of living – but that is largely because they pay very little taxes (including local municipal ones), they disregard city planning laws, and built wherever and however they want, etc.). But the point I was trying to make is that while things are far from ideal, they still prefer this to the alternative. ---
**Author:** ![Puzzler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d07c76/32.png) [@Puzzler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Puzzler)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/520 "2012-12-12T21:33:58Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > I agree that the math doesn’t tell the whole story, but it does show that the underlying argument is essentially correct. The Arab population is trending towards leveling off like most other populations in the world. The Jewish population is exploding and there is every reason to think it will continue to do so. Thus, it’s reasonable to expect (even if it is still uncertain) that in 50 to 100 years there will be a Jewish majority on the West Bank. > > It’s also worth noting that with 50 million people, the West Bank would have a population density far lower than that of Macau or Singapore. And about equal to that of the Gaza Strip right now. > > You might also ask yourself this question: If people start leaving the West Bank because it’s getting to crowded, who is more likely to leave. Seems to me that the least likely to leave are the religious settler types. Well, the assumption that the behavioral of 30+ million people may be extrapolated from a few dozens or so of ultra-motivated people seems somewhat far-fetched. So, IMO, the whole point is irrelevant. > [@](#): > > Are you aware that kust last year, one of the Senior Palestinian Authority leaders stated in effect in an Arabic interview that the ultimate goal is to put an end to Israel? How do you propose to make this attitude go away? I’m quite aware of extremist views, opinions and statements from both sides of the conflict. But instead of just giving up, and except the unavoidable war forever, I prefer to make an effort. And to make efforts to reach an agreement that, while not being perfect, is good enough to answer the basic concerns and needs of both sides. For Israel, that would include a rock-steady foundation (as much as possible) ensuring our security in the presence of a Palestinian state next door. > [@](#): > > Well there you go. In a more ideal world, Israel would pull out of the West Bank; the Palestinian Arabs would get their own state there. They would offer citizenship to any Jews who happened to be living there, as well as to the so-called “refugees.” The new country would live in peace with Israel. That is the most moral solution. > > Unfortunately, the world is far less ideal. Most importantly, the Palestinian Arabs have demonstrated time and time again the consensus in their thinking, which is that putting an end to Jewish Israel is far more important than having their own state or doing anything constructive. > > So one needs to ask what is the best solution in the far less ideal world we live in. And that is to annex. And by your reasoning, one cannot dismiss this solution as immoral unless one is reasonably confident that there is a better solution. > > Let me ask you this: Given the statements I quoted from just last year indicating that the goal is to put an end to Israel; given the announcement that a Palestinian state would NOT offer citizenship to “refugees,” even those living on the West Bank itself; given Abbas’ announcement that a Palestinian State would be used to pursue lawfare against Israel; and given all the misconduct of the Arabs over the last 50 years which continues to this day, what is your evidence that a Palestinian State would not be used for destructive purposes? Do you have anything besides your own wishes? In addition to what I wrote above about the necessity from the Israeli side to ensure our security, and of making as sure as possible that no hostilities would come from P (and allowance of necessary means to neutralize those in case is does), I will say that I do not believe the world at large would except 50-100 more years of the current situation without interfering. > [@](#): > > What exactly am I missing? The world hates Israel and always has. The sky did not fall when Israel annexed the Golan Heights or Eastern Jerusalem. “The World” doesn’t do or hate anybody… The various states have interests and cultural biases that influence their attitude toward Israel. And while most of the time, there certainly is a feeling here that no matter what we do, we always end on the wrong side, it wasn’t always like that. And in fact, it isn’t now. The international organizations are certainly biased, as may be expected from the vast amount of Arab and other states that are automatically against Israel, no matter what we do. But on the practical level, and in the state by state attitude (at least in the west), it is a different situation. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182.md?page=27)