# So Will The Sky Fall If The UN Declare Palestine a State? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 4, 2011, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182 "2011-09-04T19:54:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 29
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2012, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/561 "2012-12-17T19:42:56Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Well then let’s suppose for the sake of argument that the Palestinian Arab leadership announces explicitly that they want a Palestinian State to serve as a base of operations for their campaign to destroy Israel. > > You feel that’s irrelevant to the question of whether it’s a good idea to have a Palestinian State? Seriously? I think we can assume that a fair number of Palestinian leaders have fantasies about wiping Israel off the map. Fact is, I’d be surprised if they didn’t. Longstanding ethno-nationalist quarrels have that effect. There are also some on the Israeli side who feel the same way. So no, I don’t think this is a factor in the issue - it’s simply part of the background conditions: that here we have a nacient nationalist movement whose members tend to have a serious grudge against their near neighbour. How to deal with that? Will creating a formal state make it more, or less, likely that those with a grudge will carry out attacks? One argument for “less” is that it gives them more to lose. > [@](#): > > It’s also possible that if you send me a thousand dollars, it will help me move 30 million dollars out of Nigeria and you can have 20 percent or 6 million dollars in return for your initial investment. I’m not as pessimistic as you on this issue. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2012, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/562 "2012-12-17T20:27:52Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > I think we can assume that a fair number of Palestinian leaders have fantasies about wiping Israel off the map. > > Fact is, I’d be surprised if they didn’t. Longstanding ethno-nationalist quarrels have that effect. There are also some on the Israeli side who feel the same way. > > So no, I don’t think this is a factor in the issue - it’s simply part of the background conditions: that here we have a nacient nationalist movement whose members tend to have a serious grudge against their near neighbour. How to deal with that? Will creating a formal state make it more, or less, likely that those with a grudge will carry out attacks? > > One argument for “less” is that it gives them more to lose. I don’t think that’s an answer to my question. I really would like an answer as it would help me to understand your position. It sounds like you are saying that even if the Palestinian Arab leaders explicitly, credibly, unequivocally, and unanimously announce that they want a Palestinian State solely for purposes of assisting them in their goal of destroying Israel, you would consider it irrelevant to the question of whether a Palestinian state is a good idea. Do I understand you correctly? A simple yes or no will do. > [@](#): > > I’m not as pessimistic as you on this issue. Apparently so. Are there any specific facts on which you base your optimism? ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2012, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/563 "2012-12-17T20:48:07Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > I don’t think that’s an answer to my question. > > I really would like an answer as it would help me to understand your position. > > It sounds like you are saying that even if the Palestinian Arab leaders explicitly, credibly, unequivocally, and unanimously announce that they want a Palestinian State solely for purposes of assisting them in their goal of destroying Israel, you would consider it irrelevant to the question of whether a Palestinian state is a good idea. > > Do I understand you correctly? A simple yes or no will do. Okay then, yes. I thought that was explicit in my last answer. Though how much longer I’ll bother to answer if this thread is conducted like a cross-examination in a law school moot, I dunno. 😃 > [@](#): > > Apparently so. Are there any specific facts on which you base your optimism? Lots of 'em. In 1967, the entire Arab World positvely rejected the very notion of recognition of or negotiation with Israel - the famous “three Nos”. Since that time, the pivotal characters on the Arab side have either (a) violated each one of the “three Nos” - like Egypt and the PA, or (b) been marginalized by subsequent events - like the Syrian dictatorship; or (c) are isolated and relatively powerless - like Hamas. Instead of an Arab world united in unwavering hatred, Israel faces a very different political landscape today. This makes peace with the PA at least much more possible than in the past. The fact that the process has been intensely frustrating doesn’t mean that peace is impossible. No-one would ever have thought peace with Egypt was possible. Of the two (Egyptians and Palestinians), the Egyptians were by far the more formidable enemy for Israel. Today, there is no enemy the ME that is really capable of an existential threat - bar the Iranians, and they don’t share a border. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/564 "2012-12-18T00:06:53Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > Elvis is, simultaneously, claiming his camp’s being persecuted and referencing the common fiction that 'you can’t criticize Israel without being an anti-Semite", and also claiming that it’s an issue of Jewish privilege and we want the whole world to get on board with Jewish Exceptionalism. > > It’s a tightrope to walk, but I’m sure Elvis can manage. I have no idea how you got that from what I said, but then again I have no idea how you can possibly hold some of the beliefs you express here. No, I’m not claiming that the civilized world is “being persecuted”. Please. Yes, you do have to notice the countless times, including in this thread, that any criticism of Israel’s actions is dismissed by the likes of **brazil84** and, well, yourself as antisemitism. That’s a very easy, even attractively self-righteous view, but it is ultimately self-defeating. Yes, you do have to wonder where that attitude comes from. If it isn’t a widespread attitude of narcissism among the rationalizers, justifiers, exceptionalizers, “Israel, fuck yeah!” yahoos, some of whom actually live there, then there isn’t an alternative explanation at hand. No tightrope there. It’s calling it like virtually the entire rest of the world sees it. Maybe it’s time to give it a thought yourself, hmm? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/565 "2012-12-18T00:08:33Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > I sense and exluded middle here…the other hand, IMO no it isn’t possible that Israel commits more human rights abuses than any other country, or indeed the rest of the world combined. That simply is not factually true. Again, IMO. How do you sense an excluded middle in something that wasn’t said? :dubious: Or did you sense that too? ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/566 "2012-12-18T00:28:05Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Okay then, yes. I thought that was explicit in my last answer. Not really. > [@](#): > > Though how much longer I’ll bother to answer if this thread is conducted like a cross-examination in a law school moot, I dunno. 😃 I’m trying to figure out exactly where we disagree. Let me ask you this: If the Arabs get a Palestinian State, and then they use that state primarily to attack Israel diplomatically and militarily, can we agree that in hindsight, it was a bad idea to give them a Palestinian State? > [@](#): > > Lots of 'em. > > In 1967, the entire Arab World positvely rejected the very notion of recognition of or negotiation with Israel - the famous “three Nos”. > > Since that time, the pivotal characters on the Arab side have either (a) violated each one of the “three Nos” - like Egypt and the PA, or (b) been marginalized by subsequent events - like the Syrian dictatorship; or (c) are isolated and relatively powerless - like Hamas. > > Instead of an Arab world united in unwavering hatred, Israel faces a very different political landscape today. This makes peace with the PA at least much more possible than in the past. > > The fact that the process has been intensely frustrating doesn’t mean that peace is impossible. No-one would ever have thought peace with Egypt was possible. Of the two (Egyptians and Palestinians), the Egyptians were by far the more formidable enemy for Israel. Today, there is no enemy the ME that is really capable of an existential threat - bar the Iranians, and they don’t share a border. Ok, so your reasoning is that (1) peace is possible; therefore (2) it’s possible that giving the Arabs a Palestinian State will make peace more likely? ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/567 "2012-12-18T02:00:33Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I have no idea how you got that from what I said, but then again I have no idea how you can possibly hold some of the beliefs you express here. > > No, I’m not claiming that the civilized world is “being persecuted”. Please. > Yes, you do have to notice the countless times, including in this thread, that any criticism of Israel’s actions is dismissed by the likes of **brazil84** and, well, yourself as antisemitism. That’s a very easy, even attractively self-righteous view, but it is ultimately self-defeating. > Yes, you do have to wonder where that attitude comes from. If it isn’t a widespread attitude of narcissism among the rationalizers, justifiers, exceptionalizers, “Israel, fuck yeah!” yahoos, some of whom actually live there, then there isn’t an alternative explanation at hand. > > No tightrope there. It’s calling it like virtually the entire rest of the world sees it. Maybe it’s time to give it a thought yourself, hmm? So, what did the acronym IOKIAJ mean and why did you write it? Also, while I don’t agree with Finn on Israel, I don’t see where in this thread he dismissed all criticism of Israel as anti-Semitism. Could you show me where he did? ---
**Author:** ![Sleeping\_Synapse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7ab992/32.png) [@Sleeping\_Synapse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sleeping_Synapse)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/568 "2012-12-18T02:32:19Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I don’t think you’ll be shocked to learn this comment looks a lot like hate speech and we don’t tolerate that kind of thing around here. If you want to continue posting here for any length of time, you won’t do this again. Then let me rephrase for the hypersensitive and suggestible types: Do not underestimate the propensity for a people inculacted in hard line superstition to partake in terrorist-like activites to achieve their goals. After all, Israel was acquired by its current occupants through terrorism - [The King David Hotel](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:KD_1946.JPG) A balanced discussion means acknowledging _both_ sides of the story. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/569 "2012-12-18T03:41:33Z")
> [@Sleeping\_Synapse](#): > > A balanced discussion means acknowledging _both_ sides of the story. Which pretty much means that we can ignore your comments, as you have provided only one (seriously skewed) personal interpretation of events and applied them to an entire people. Claiming that your rephrasing of insults is only in deference to “the hypersensitive and suggestible types” is also a good way to lead the staff to believe that you are only here to troll hatred. If you have nothing to offer but nasty comments, take them elsewhere. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/570 "2012-12-18T03:53:16Z")
> [@Sleeping\_Synapse](#): > > Then let me rephrase for the hypersensitive and suggestible types: > > Do not underestimate the propensity for a people inculacted in hard line superstition to partake in terrorist-like activites to achieve their goals. After all, Israel was acquired by its current occupants through terrorism - [The King David Hotel](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:KD_1946.JPG) > > A balanced discussion means acknowledging _both_ sides of the story. You’re entitled to your own opinions but not to your own facts. The Irgun was a terrorist group but was supported by a minority of the Palestinian Jews and rather than “acquire” Israel, they dramatically hindered the creation of a Jewish state. Moreover, most of the fighting during Israel’s war for independence was done by the Hagannah not by either the Irgun or Lehi. I’d recommend reading up on the situation if you’re so upset by it and wish to show people how much you hate Jews. Next time, however I would choose a far more appropriate atrocity. Try the Deir Yassin massacre next time. It was vastly worse, had a higher body count, and unlike the King David Hotel all the victims were innocent Arab civilians. Also, unlike the King David Hotel bombing, it actually took place during the Israeli War for Independence. Moreover, most Palestinians care vastly more about it than they do about the King David Hotel bombing(which was directed at the British not them). If you wish to portray yourself as someone who really cares about the Palestinians and their cause and has more than a superficial understanding and knowledge of the region and is just looking to show off how much you hate Jews it’s a much better example. That being said, perhaps you could help us out and explain why you despise all Jews, think they can’t be trusted and have a propensity for murder based on one single event which members of just about all nationalities have committed. Thanks in advance. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/571 "2012-12-18T04:03:26Z")
> [@Sleeping\_Synapse](#): > > Then let me rephrase for the hypersensitive and suggestible types: > > Do not underestimate the propensity for a people inculacted in\*\* hard line superstition\*\* to partake in terrorist-like activites to achieve their goals. After all, Israel was acquired by its current occupants through terrorism - [The King David Hotel](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:KD_1946.JPG) > > A balanced discussion means acknowledging _both_ sides of the story. Oh, I just noticed this line. It makes no sense since the Irgun terrorists who carried out the massacre where secular Jews who didn’t practice Judaism in any meaningful way and many of them didn’t even believe in God. Making judgements about Judaism or even connecting Judaism to that bombing would be as stupid as suggesting that radical Islam, or even orthodox Islam, could be connected to the Munich massacre or that Christianity could be connected to the various hijacking of airliners in the 70s by Palestinian guerillas. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/572 "2012-12-18T04:23:24Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > No, I’m not claiming that the civilized world is “being persecuted”. Of course you are. That’s what it means when you claim that the persecution fantasy you have invented, that of a slander campaign against anybody who criticizes Israel, actually exists. Glad I could clear that up for you. > [@](#): > > Yes, you do have to notice the countless times, including in this thread, that any criticism of Israel’s actions is dismissed by the likes of **brazil84** and, well, yourself as antisemitism. I don’t read Brazil’s posts, but the fact that you imagined accusations of anti-semitism coming from me does not inspire confidence in your argument’s ability to rationally analyze let alone integrate new data without sifting it through a persecution fantasy first. Of course, I didn’t think you’d grok the tightrope, but then again, that post wasn’t for your benefit. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 10:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/573 "2012-12-18T10:09:17Z")
> [@Sleeping\_Synapse](#): > > Then let me rephrase for the hypersensitive and suggestible types: > > Do not underestimate the propensity for a people inculacted in hard line superstition to partake in terrorist-like activites to achieve their goals. After all, Israel was acquired by its current occupants through terrorism - [The King David Hotel](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:KD_1946.JPG) > > A balanced discussion means acknowledging _both_ sides of the story. Umm, you forgot to insinuate that the Zionists are just like the Nazis. Step up your game a bit, ok? ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/574 "2012-12-18T14:24:55Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > How do you sense an excluded middle in something that wasn’t said? :dubious: Or did you sense that too? Did you by chance miss the exchange you were commenting on? Go back an re-read post #533: > [@](#): > > Can’t imagine why. It couldn’t be that they commit more human rights violations than the rest of the world combined. Could it? ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/575 "2012-12-18T14:30:31Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > I’m trying to figure out exactly where we disagree. > > Let me ask you this: If the Arabs get a Palestinian State, and then they use that state primarily to attack Israel diplomatically and militarily, can we agree that in hindsight, it was a bad idea to give them a Palestinian State? You are changing the scenario. Your first question dealt with what the leadership says is is going to do. My point in response was that no matter what the leadership says, the facts on the ground have their own momentum. The leadership of Egypt at one point said that even talking to Israel was impossible … Now, you are saying that if the Palestinian state is in fact simply used as an offensive weapon … but that scenario presupposes the very thing that is in dispute. > [@](#): > > Ok, so your reasoning is that (1) peace is possible; therefore (2) it’s possible that giving the Arabs a Palestinian State will make peace more likely? Yes. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/576 "2012-12-18T14:53:19Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I suppose a cite would be too much to ask for? I guess that’s a yes, **brazil**? ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/577 "2012-12-18T15:29:56Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > You are changing the scenario. Yes of course – I’m trying to figure out exactly where we disagree by presenting you with a different scenario. > [@](#): > > Now, you are saying that if the Palestinian state is in fact simply used as an offensive weapon … but that scenario presupposes the very thing that is in dispute. No, what’s in dispute is whether the intentions of Palestinian Arab leadership are relevant to whether a Palestinian state is a good idea or not. It sounds like you are saying that (1) Yes, if the Palestinian Arab leadership uses a Palestinian state primarily to attack Israel, then in hindsight it was a bad idea to give them a state; and (2) The current intentions of the Palestinian Arab leadership are completely irrelevant to prediction of their future actions. Do I understand you correctly? > [@](#): > > Yes. Well you have presented no evidence at all to get from (1) to (2). One could just as easily say that dropping a nuclear bomb on Ramallah is likely to engender peace. After all, we know that peace is possible. Therefore it is possible that nuking Ramallah will lead to peace. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/578 "2012-12-18T15:46:37Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Yes of course – I’m trying to figure out exactly where we disagree by presenting you with a different scenario. > > No, what’s in dispute is whether the intentions of Palestinian Arab leadership are relevant to whether a Palestinian state is a good idea or not. Incorrect. The actual intentions of the Arab leadership are unknowable. What is in dispute is whether their _stated_ intentions should be a factor in determining whether their state is a good idea or not. > [@](#): > > It sounds like you are saying that > > (1) Yes, if the Palestinian Arab leadership uses a Palestinian state primarily to attack Israel, then in hindsight it was a bad idea to give them a state; and > > (2) The current intentions of the Palestinian Arab leadership are completely irrelevant to prediction of their future actions. > > Do I understand you correctly? “Stated” intentions. Surely you yourself must believe some version of (2), as the current leadership of the PA does not in fact say that they will use Palestine as a weapon, yet if I understand you correctly you think that they will nonetheless. In short, you do not believe that their actions can be predicted from their words. Nor do I. The difference is that you appear to only not believe it when they claim that they have only good intentions. I do not believe anything they say, good or bad, will actually accurately predict what actually happens, because I remember that past Arab leaders said “fire and brimstone”, but did not actually deliver “fire and brimstone”. > [@](#): > > Well you have presented no evidence at all to get from (1) to (2). One could just as easily say that dropping a nuclear bomb on Ramallah is likely to engender peace. After all, we know that peace is possible. Therefore it is possible that nuking Ramallah will lead to peace. I have presented lots of evidence - you may not believe it is determinative (I’m on the fence myself), but that is not the same as there not being any. Remember the three points “pro” I made above? Of course by “evidence” I mean stuff like arguing from history and logic. You can’t really have hard “evidence” about future predictions. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/579 "2012-12-18T16:21:38Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Incorrect. The actual intentions of the Arab leadership are unknowable. What is in dispute is whether their _stated_ intentions should be a factor in determining whether their state is a good idea or not. Don’t weasel. You already agreed that if the Arab leadership CREDIBLY stated that its intentions with a Palestinian State was to destroy Israel, it would be irrelevant to whether a Palestinian State is a good idea. Also, are you claiming that you can never come to a reasonable conclusion about anyone’s intentions based on their words and actions? > [@](#): > > “Stated” intentions. Are you abandoning your earlier position? > [@](#): > > Surely you yourself must believe some version of (2), as the current leadership of the PA does not in fact say that they will use Palestine as a weapon, Lol, try actually looking at the facts. Abbas came right out and said in a New York Times editorial that a Palestinian State would be used for lawfare against Israel: > [@](#): > > Palestine’s admission to the United Nations would pave the way for the internationalization of the conflict as a legal matter, not only a political one. It would also pave the way for us to pursue claims against Israel at the United Nations, human rights treaty bodies and the International Court of Justice. And a senior Fatah leader said the following last year: > [@](#): > > The agreement is based on the borders of June 4. While the agreement is on the borders of June 4, the President [Mahmoud Abbas] understands, we understand, and everyone knows that it is impossible to realize the inspiring idea, or the great goal in one stroke. If Israel withdraws from Jerusalem, if Israel uproots the settlements, 650,000 settlers, if Israel removes the (security) fence - what will be with Israel? Israel will come to an end. If I say that I want to remove it from existence, this will be great, great, [but] it is hard. This is not a [stated] policy. You can’t say it to the world. You can say it to yourself." What do you think he meant by the “great goal”? And do you seriously believe that his intentions are unknowable? Seriously? > [@](#): > > In short, you do not believe that their actions can be predicted from their words. Of course I do. When you look at all their words and actions in context, it’s very easy to predict what they will do. > [@](#): > > The difference is that you appear to only not believe it when they claim that they have only good intentions. If I actually saw such a claim, I would of course be skeptical. After all, admissions carry a lot more weight than self-serving statements. But let’s do this: Give me a quote from a senior Palestinian Arab leader demonstrating their good intentions and then we can discuss how credible it is. > [@](#): > > I have presented lots of evidence - you may not believe it is determinative (I’m on the fence myself), but that is not the same as there not being any. Remember the three points “pro” I made above? You presented evidence for a compound hypothesis; that’s a fallacy. > [@](#): > > Of course by “evidence” I mean stuff like arguing from history and logic. You can’t really have hard “evidence” about future predictions. Well you could cite actual facts supporting portion of your claim which is in dispute. Which you have failed to do. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [December 18, 2012, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182/580 "2012-12-18T18:29:22Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > Don’t weasel. Huh? My position all along has been totally consistent. This isn’t going to impress me, or indeed anyone. > [@](#): > > You already agreed that if the Arab leadership CREDIBLY stated that its intentions with a Palestinian State was to destroy Israel, it would be irrelevant to whether a Palestinian State is a good idea. > > Also, are you claiming that you can never come to a reasonable conclusion about anyone’s intentions based on their words and actions? I’m saying that stated intentions often do not match future actions, particularly in this conflict. So “quote mining” to gather evidence of irredemable hostility is an ultimately futile activity. No doubt many if not most Palestinians would prefer Israel to disappear in a puff of (no doubt bad-smelling) smoke. No doubt may Israelis feel the same about Palestinians - though probably less so than the Palestinains, as the Israelis happen to be doing rather better out of the status quo. Those facts (together with whatever quotes one could find from one side or the other) do not and should not affect what steps ought to be taken to ultimately lessen that hostility in the future and bring the sides into some sort of reasonable agreement. > [@](#): > > Are you abandoning your earlier position? Huh again? > [@](#): > > Lol, try actually looking at the facts. Abbas came right out and said in a New York Times editorial that a Palestinian State would be used for lawfare against Israel: That isn’t a reasonable interpretation of what Abbas said. He’s not claiming to use the international court to destroy Israel, but to pursue “claims” - a reasonable interpretation being, as a way of increasing his bargaining position. Not that I approve of that tactic, but it is a far cry from what you are claiming. > [@](#): > > And a senior Fatah leader said the following last year: > > What do you think he meant by the “great goal”? > > And do you seriously believe that his intentions are unknowable? Seriously? This is closer to what you want, but seriously - it is no secret, as I said above, that many Palestinains wish Israel would disappear. Some “senior Fatah leader” saying as much means exactly nothing. > [@](#): > > Of course I do. When you look at all their words and actions in context, it’s very easy to predict what they will do. You aren’t scoring very well so far, given that you are interpreting Abbas’ statement as a declaration of unwavering hostility. > [@](#): > > If I actually saw such a claim, I would of course be skeptical. After all, admissions carry a lot more weight than self-serving statements. But let’s do this: Give me a quote from a senior Palestinian Arab leader demonstrating their good intentions and then we can discuss how credible it is. This isn’t a court of law. As for “admissions” why do you not consider the “three Nos” as “admissions”? > [@](#): > > You presented evidence for a compound hypothesis; that’s a fallacy. > > Well you could cite actual facts supporting portion of your claim which is in dispute. Which you have failed to do. No idea what, other than hand-waving away the evidence you do not like, you are claiming here. How about this: it is an actual fact that following the 1967 War, Arab leaders met and issued a joint statement in which they claimed that there would be no negotiations and no peace with Israel. Do you agree? It is also an actual fact that, despite this statement, the primary Arab enemy of Israel - Egypt - did in fact make peace. Still agreeing? Therefore, it is _reasonable_ to hold the position that statemernts of eternal and unwavering emnity made by Arab leaders in this conflict cannot be taken at face value in this conflict, based on historical precedent. Is that not a position based on “actual facts”? Mind you, if you go back to my original post I was of the opinion that there were legitimate aruments both for and against statehood. I myself am undecided on this point. It is only your insistance that there are no legitimate arguments which is requiring me to argue the “pro” position. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182.md?page=28) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-will-the-sky-fall-if-the-un-declare-palestine-a-state/595182.md?page=30)