# So you killed your kid while cleaning your gun. **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [March 26, 2013, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020 "2013-03-26T17:03:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/321 "2013-04-09T02:38:04Z")
Kids are now[fighting back.](http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/04/08/4-year-old-grabs-loaded-gun-at-family-bbq-and-accidentally-kills-wife-of-tennessee-sheriffs-deputy/) I think that day care workers should consider arming themselves as protection against the toddlers. The answer seems to be; More Guns. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/322 "2013-04-09T02:49:30Z")
> [@Kable](#): > > Actually, I think this is more correct… > > [Confidence Intervals Introduction](http://onlinestatbook.com/2/estimation/confidence.html) > > …but it’s wordier. It also directly contradicts you. [QUOTE=you] He should have said there is a 95% chance the real value was within the interval, [/QUOTE] [QUOTE=your cite] It is natural to interpret a 95% confidence interval as an interval with a 0.95 probability of containing the population mean. However, the proper interpretation is not that simple. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/323 "2013-04-09T03:14:51Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > It also directly contradicts you. Hey, he said he _took_ a stats course in college, he didn’t say he _passed_ it. ---
**Author:** ![Kable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kable)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/324 "2013-04-09T03:26:18Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > It also directly contradicts you. Yeah, but I always thought the difference in wording to be a bit semantical. However Hentor’s interpretation isn’t even close. Bullshit, I think is the best descriptor. ---
**Author:** ![Kable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kable)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/325 "2013-04-09T03:27:19Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Hey, he said he _took_ a stats course in college, he didn’t say he _passed_ it. Got an A in fact. ---
**Author:** ![outlierrn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/outlierrn/32/3005_2.png) [@outlierrn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/outlierrn)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/326 "2013-04-09T03:47:52Z")
> [@Kable](#): > > Got an A in fact. What’d’ja do, pull a gun on your teacher? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/327 "2013-04-09T04:12:57Z")
> [@outlierrn](#): > > What’d’ja do, pull a gun on your teacher? He reported it as a “defensive gun use” ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/328 "2013-04-09T04:15:02Z")
> [@Kable](#): > > Yeah, but I always thought the difference in wording to be a bit semantical. However Hentor’s interpretation isn’t even close. Bullshit, I think is the best descriptor. If bullshit…say why. Your inability to explain your point very seriously undermines your credibility…even in the Pit! I mean, yeah, bullshit, buttwipe, dongblister, shitsnorter, etc. We love a good round of cussin’ here. But, dude, this is MATH! It’s one of the very few topics where you can actually PROVE what you believe. Does God exist? Fuck all if anybody knows. Is holism superior to reductionism? Nobody even really understands the question. Is Bluegrass good music? Well, okay, that goes without saying. But, math, guy. Math. Prove your fucking point! If you can’t, then just cussing ain’t gonna carry the day. ---
**Author:** ![Kable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kable)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/329 "2013-04-09T04:34:11Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > If bullshit…say why. Your inability to explain your point very seriously undermines your credibility…even in the Pit! I gave you the link that explains why. If you can’t figure it from that, then nothing I say will help you. And yeah, my guess is you can’t figure it. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/330 "2013-04-09T05:32:32Z")
> [@Kable](#): > > I gave you the link that explains why. If you can’t figure it from that, then nothing I say will help you. And yeah, my guess is you can’t figure it. Ah, the good old ad hominem. Noooope, you got nothing. You probably lied about getting a good grade in the class, too… Sheesh. You had every chance, too, to make a good showing. It’s called math, and you’ve demonstrated ineptitude. But ineptitude at name-calling? Now that’s feeble. Statistically, we shouldn’t judge all gun-advocates by this sample of one… ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/331 "2013-04-09T11:30:08Z")
Actually, in trying to expediently find a way to simplify it for **Damuri Ajashi** , I did end up misspeaking. My previous descriptions are correct - in this case, we can be 95% confident that the zero effect is among the possible true values (given by the specified range), not that it is the true value. The fact that I’ve repeatedly described it as such up until that point kind of makes **Kable’s** triumphalism a little weasely, but hey, he did purport to getting an A in a 270 level stats course somewhere. ---
**Author:** ![Kable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kable)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/332 "2013-04-09T11:43:50Z")
See Trinopus, I will be happy to hear your apology now. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/333 "2013-04-09T12:10:51Z")
> [@Kable](#): > > See Trinopus, I will be happy to hear your apology now. I’m just pleased to see that some of what I’ve been saying all along sunk in a little bit. But boy are you a smarmy little pussy. ---
**Author:** ![Kable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kable)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/334 "2013-04-09T12:37:40Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > I’m just pleased to see that some of what I’ve been saying all along sunk in a little bit. > > But boy are you a smarmy little pussy. Pride is unbecoming. You should be more humble when you are backpedalling your prior bullshit statements. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/335 "2013-04-09T12:43:16Z")
> [@Kable](#): > > Pride is unbecoming. You should be more humble when you are backpedalling your prior bullshit statements. You appear to not even know the meaning of the word backpedaling. Could you please explain for everyone the implications of the misstatement that I made? ---
**Author:** ![Kable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed655f/32.png) [@Kable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kable)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/336 "2013-04-09T12:57:10Z")
What this? > [@Hentor the Barbarian](#): > > I don’t think there’s any way to say it any simpler than we can be 95% confident that the effect here is zero. I’ll leave it to someone else to give a stats lesson. I just know bullshit when I smell it, and Hentor, you stink. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2013, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/337 "2013-04-09T21:30:25Z")
> [@Kable](#): > > See Trinopus, I will be happy to hear your apology now. Why? He told the truth, and you’re still lying. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2013, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/338 "2013-04-10T03:01:03Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > 1 + 1 = 3, if you sort of squint a little, and try really hard to make it so. > \*\* > Damuri Ajashi\*\*, I’m afraid you’re using neo-con logic here - “if the facts, science and logic don’t fit your thesis, then just claim that “common sense” says you are right.” I’m afraid that the ignorance and irrational fear is mostly on your side on this one. > [@Cartooniverse](#): > > -Shrug- I’m not the one who murdered his kid. If nobody has murdered their kid, you could call my statement irrational. > > As it is, as we are all firmly in agreement of, it is the absolute truth that this man murdered his son. > > Before you go calling people’s fear of gun owners irrational, tell me something. Before the bullet entered that child’s brain, do you think he had a moment of irrational fear? And would you sit there criticizing him if he did? > > Irrational? Please. :dubious: Having fear of guns is not irrational, the level of and the manifestation of that fear is irrational. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2013, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/339 "2013-04-10T04:26:04Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > I’m afraid that the ignorance and irrational fear is mostly on your side on this one. If you really don’t understand what numbers and mathematics say, then it’s quite hard to have a logical conversation with you. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2013, 8:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020/340 "2013-04-10T08:01:13Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Just to be crystal clear, **Measure for Measure** is entirely correct in what he says, but it is ultimately irrelevant to the issue here. This is because long guns were not significantly associated with homicide even at the univariate level. Huh. Well, then I’m disappointed in **Kable**. Somebody who has taken 1 semester of college statistics can be forgiven for not appreciating multivariate analysis, but they really should know about confidence intervals. Maybe the odds ratio context is confusing him. Or perhaps he’s just another internet jackass. > [@elucidator](#): > > Well, this is very educational! Before this, I had no idea about univariate associations versus multivariate modeling. Now, I know that they exist. > [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > You and me both. Good catch: multivariate analysis is a pretty important concept actually, as it allows social scientists to do something analogous to a controlled experiment. > [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Once again, putting aside the mutlivariate stuff, it seems to me that the word “significant” might have a special meaning in statistics that is different from the common understanding. ## Another good catch. It might be better to use the phrase, “Statistically discernible”, but unfortunately the proper technical term is “Statistically significant”. A statistically significant effect can be miniscule in size-- all significance means is that the investigator rules out that what he is measuring was produced by chance (or if it was produced by chance, that would only happen 5% of the time or whatever ). Conversely, a large effect can be statistically insignificant if the power of your test is weak. A herd of elephants can have a pretty devastating impact on a one acre farm, but if the viewer is on the moon, it won’t be clear to him what is happening. The magnitude of the effect is high, but crude measurement prevents it from being confirmed. There’s probably some Bayesian argument that a gun advocate could make, but it wouldn’t involve challenging the integrity of the author of the original piece. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/so-you-killed-your-kid-while-cleaning-your-gun/654020.md?page=18)