Could I see a cite for this?
Regards,
Shodan
Would you accept an anti-cite? Below is a post I made in responce to this exact assertion about a month ago, in a thread that gonzomax participated in. Conclusive proof that, not only are we not making “less and less products all the time,” but we’re actually making more and more products all the time (with the exception of the current recession).
Gladly accepted, thanks. I think I remember that thread.
Some ignorance won’t stay fought. 
Regards,
Shodan
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/indprd.htm Perhaps you geniuses can see the slope of production. It does not seem hard but your inability to see the facts is well demonstrated.
Democratic Underground - U.S. industrial production chart: America makes nothing but weapons - Democratic Underground How revealing is this?
Industrial Production (Graph) | All American Investor This one so obvious, that even you with hands over your eyes and fingers in your ears can not escape the truth.
But they are still going to work because they have to in order to make a living. How anyone, precious Hippocratic-oath doctors included, chooses to do so is beyond your purview.
I haven’t seen a mention in this thread (and I haven’t read it all) about the exorbitant loans most people that become doctors have to pay off for their medical training, which by default require a bigger salary just to make the loan payments, let alone the shitty hours and residency most if not all doctors are required to perform as they climb the ladder towards the BMW.
It isn’t all peaches and cream getting there. Most of them EARN it through insane hours of hard work and actually (gasp!) caring for patients.
Once a doctor has his own practice (read: business), it’s his or her decision to make regarding how much time they spend treating patients versus playing golf or whatever.
I think **Jack Batty **has a glorified/idealized vision of doctors as some elite jet-set group of people that spend more time jacking off than earning money to pay their gigantic bills (did I mention malpractice insurance? It’s awfully expensive).
I just don’t think it is so for the majority of doctors.
Are you serious? Those are your cites? You really need to find something that makes it at least a little bit difficult to debunk your assertions. Let’s go through them, one by one:
First, your link from Briefing.com. Why don’t you go ahead and open up the link so you can follow along easily. Don’t even look at the graphs just yet, scroll down to the very bottom of the page. There, you’ll find a bullet point that says “Raw Data Available At: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/g17.txt.” Now, scroll up to my previous post, put your mouse over the link titled “Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization” and look down into the status bar. See anything that looks familiar? Because, in fact, the data from briefing.com comes from the exact same Federal Reserve report that I linked to earlier. Funny, that.
Now, go ahead and scroll back up to the first graph, and take a look at the title “Production and Capacity y/y%”. Now, since I’d really like to do a convincing debunking, I did a bit of legwork and actually looked at the raw data, and I’ve determined that the blue line measuring production in this graph actually comes from Table 11 in the Federal Reserve release that they linked to, and I kindly re-linked to above. What they mean by “y/y%”, and the raw data makes this clear, is the percentage change in industrial production, relative to the year before. Go ahead and locate the line that represents 0%. What percentage change means is: every time the blue line is above the that 0% line the country is producing more than it was a year ago; every time the blue line is below that 0% line the country is producing less. Now, genius, ask yourself this: does the blue line spend more time above or below the 0% line? Hint: the answer is “above”. Except in times of recession, the industrial output of the US is growing and growing, exactly what I said before.
There are two more graphs on that page, why don’t you see if you can figure out what they mean on your own.
Now, I’ll move onto your third link, from “All American Investor.” This blog isn’t quite so professional, and they don’t cite exactly where they get their data. But, if you look down in the “Labels” section, you’ll note the two words “federal” and “reserve”. Hmm. Take a look at the ordinate on the graph, where it says “Index 2002 = 100”. Which is funny, because the Federal Reserve report I originally linked to also uses a scale that sets the output in 2002 to 100. In fact, now that I look at it, that chart looks eerily similar to the 1999-2009 section this one that I posted a month ago. Oh. My. GOD! I think they’re the same chart! Which means, of course, that everything that I said a month ago still applies. You are right about one thing, this graph is “so obvious, that even you with hands over your eyes and fingers in your ears can not escape the truth.” Take a look again, and notice that the peak of the graph in the All American Investor, and even the peak of the original Federal Reserve graph, both take place in late 2007. What this means is that the United States has NEVER produced more than it did in 2007. RickJay mentioned in the other thread that the US is the world’s largest manufacturing country. If you think about it, this means that no country, in the history of the world, has ever produced more than the United States did in 2007. And yet, you somehow still find a way to claim that we’re making less and less all the time. Maybe you can escape the truth with your hands over your eyes and your fingers in your ears.
Finally, we’ll move on to the second link that you posted, from the Democratic Underground, titled “U.S. industrial production chart: America makes nothing but weapons”. You’ll be happy to know that this didn’t just come from the one graph that I linked to a month ago. One out of three… not too shabby.
Anyway, onto actual content. I had not realized that shipments of military durable goods have more than doubled since 2000. It makes sense, given that we’re involved in two wars, but I hadn’t really thought of it before. Shipments in nonmilitary durable goods took a hit in the recession of 2001, but if you look at the chart it had recovered, and even gone above 2000 levels when the recession of 2008 hit. So this chart is, aside from the stagnation between late 2005 and early 2008, more or less what I would expect to see. The description below the graph, that “we have so hollowed out our industrial plant that the only thing we are now producing is weapons of war” is completely wrong. Take a look at the original New York Times article that had the graph, which says that military shipments only make up 8% of the total. In other words, nonmilitary durable goods still make up 92% of shipments. So, according to Democratic Underground, 92% = nothing. Gotcha.
In conclusion gonzomax, your cites fail to support your beliefs about industrial production and manufacturing in the US because your beliefs are wrong. Industrial production in the US is doing fine. The country produces an unbelievable amount of stuff, and does so extremely efficiently. We’re in a recession now, but we’ll be comming out of it. In fact, industrial production has begun to increase once again. So calm down a bit about this subject, and find something different to direct your vitriol against.
Every single graph shows a steep drop in industrial production over the last few years. Every single one. You are proof that people can chose to believe what they want to believe in.
http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2009/02/industrial-production-cycles.html The bold one is recent production. can you see what direction it is taking?
http://multimedia.belointeractive.com/attack/economicimpact/1116economy.html This article explains it dropped at that point 13 months in a row. You have to go back to 1932 to find a streak like that.
Do you understand that you’re looking at the results of a recession, and not the results of a long-term trend? Industrial production is dropping everywhere. It’s not a sign that the U.S. is losing its manufacturing to other countries, it’s a sign that world production has declined.
Your own cites show that industrial production has increased year over year from 2001 to 2008, and only started declining because of the recession.
In the last few months the trend has reversed as the U.S. claws its way out of recession. Industrial manufacturing increased beyond expectations last month.
Wow, gonzomax, this is getting increasingly sad. Take another look at Chart 1 from the Federal Reserve. Like Sam Stone said, we’re in a recession, and industrial production drops every time we’re in a recession. You can clearly see this in the historical data, going back to 1967.
You’re cite from Angry Bear is from February, right when we were at the worst of the recession. Since then, the drop has stopped, and industrial production has started growing again.
The first five words of your Belo Interactive cite are:
BUt, I don’t remember any terrorist attack against the US since this recession started. But then I looked down at the bottom of the page, and noticed that the story was from November of 2001! But then the downslide ended, and US industrial production started to increase again, and hit its all time high in 2007. Then we got into another recession, and industrial output dropped to the level it was at in 1997 (which is still twice as much as it was in 1970…). But now it’s rising again. We’re working our way out of the recession, and everything will turn out fine. We haven’t shipped all our manufacturing off to anyone else. As a nation, we’ll soon be producing more than we ever have before.
You dead end belief does not make it so. Our manufacturing base went to India and China. Our textiles went to Mexico and then further away. Our machine building is cut way down. Our auto building and the suppliers have been moving for years. It has been chopped apart and moved.I was involved in the manufacturing business for 40 years and almost every place I worked with are out of business or moved abroad.
You have no idea what you’re talking about. I work in manufacturing today. I work in factory automation, making hardware and software for mostly American manufacturing companies. Until the recession hit, our revenue was up dramatically year over year, as was that of our competitors. I have attended many, many meetings where we discussed the state of manufacturing and whether the market was growing or shrinking.
So far, you’ve ignored every cite, posted cites that don’t say what you seem to think they say, been refuted multiple times, been given more cites which conclusively show that American manufacturing is growing, and now you come out and just call it all wishful thinking and claim that it’s all gone.
Moon Landing hoaxers are on more solid ground than you are.
And yet, you’ve somehow been unable to demonstrate this. You’ve posted out of date infomation, completely misinterpreted at least two gaphs, and posted two cites that outright agree with me. Your best bet is to claim that this selling off of our manufacturing base is a brand new trend, one that only started in 2008, but there’s not even any evidence for that.
I mean, really, you don’t even have to give up your blood-lust for conservatives. There are pleanty of other problems in the world to blame on people that you don’t like. Why not get behind one of them for a while?
gonzomax, I find myself agreeing with you quite often, but in this case I think you’re mistaken. The graphs you linked to are indeed insightful, but the message they convey is just that the current recession has gone after manufacturing with a baseball bat. In several years, when the economy has recovered, it may very well be interesting to see if manufacturing recovers along with it. If it doesn’t, then I agree your case could be made more effectively.
Where do you get that from? **Shodan **was the one claiming that they need cadre’s of lawyers to cover their asses whenever their taxes go up.
My point remains: A doctor’s tax situation shouldn’t affect how he treats his patients.Period. The twain should never meet.
That’s not a point - it is an assertion, and a fairly silly one as well.
Maybe you don’t want doctors to try to reduce their tax burdens. So what? They’re gonna, whether you want them to or not. People act in their own self-interest. Get used to it. You do the same thing yourself - why should doctors be any different?
Regards,
Shodan
I think both sides are correct. While according to this chart, industrial capacity and production has increased over the past several decades, according to this article, manufacturing as a percentage of the US economy has been shrinking. IOW, more people are going into services jobs than manufacturing - accounting, finance, law, technology, sales & marketing and so on.
One positive thing that has come out of the recession is that kids in college are shifting from careers in finance to engineering, energy, green industries and other fields. I think that can only be a positive having our best and brightest working in fields inventing and improving products instead of becoming investment bankers and lawyers.
Even as a greedy capitalist MBA type, you have a hard time convincing me any 28 year old kid should be making millions of dollars unless he invented a freakin longer lasting lightbulb or built his own multi-million dollar company from scratch or some shit like that.