# Soccer: chance of a comeback **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 17, 2010, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501 "2010-06-17T03:03:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/1 "2010-06-17T03:03:54Z")
(I asked this in the World Cup thread, but the discussion swept right on by.) I heard a guy assert that in high-level football, the team that scores first rarely loses. It’s easy to believe, but what are the statistics? My specific question would be: What are percentages for: Games in which the team to score first wins Games that are drawn Games in which the team that scores first is the loser These stats should exclude scoreless games; games decided by penalty kicks should count as draws. Perhaps another question is: what percentage of games see a lead change? Is there any standard source for this sort of trivia? ---
**Author:** ![markdash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@markdash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markdash)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/2 "2010-06-17T04:23:18Z")
FWIW, in the 2006 World Cup the team that scored first won 40 times, drew 9 times, and lost 7 times. ---
**Author:** ![Bam\_Boo\_Gut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8c91f0/32.png) [@Bam\_Boo\_Gut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bam_Boo_Gut)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/3 "2010-06-17T16:50:43Z")
Standard source? The bloke next to you. Football fans always amaze me with their memories. After the SA goalie was sent off I said - well, I wonder when was the last time a goalie got a red card. Cue bloke at the bar "_well, the last time I remember was in European Cup Winners Cup, in what? 2002, 14 minutes into the second half etc etc_ I’ve made up his response there, because I can’t remember what he actually said but you get the idea. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/4 "2010-06-17T18:03:02Z")
> [@Bam\_Boo\_Gut](#): > > Standard source? The bloke next to you. Football fans always amaze me with their memories. After the SA goalie was sent off I said - well, I wonder when was the last time a goalie got a red card. Cue bloke at the bar "_well, the last time I remember was in European Cup Winners Cup, in what? 2002, 14 minutes into the second half etc etc_ I’ve made up his response there, because I can’t remember what he actually said but you get the idea. The last one I remember very clearly (although there have certainly been others) was Jens Lehmann in the 2006 Champions League Final getting sent off for Arsenal. Made even more dramatic because Arsenal actually scored to take the league before half-time after being reduced to 10 men, but ended up losing to Barcelona 2-1. ---
**Author:** ![UncleRojelio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/unclerojelio/32/3160_2.png) [@UncleRojelio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleRojelio)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/5 "2010-06-17T18:39:11Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > The last one I remember very clearly (although there have certainly been others) was Jens Lehmann in the 2006 Champions League Final getting sent off for Arsenal. Made even more dramatic because Arsenal actually scored to take the league before half-time after being reduced to 10 men, but ended up losing to Barcelona 2-1. I saw that game. He was robbed. But I missed the SA game. What did the keeper get sent off for? ---
**Author:** ![markdash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@markdash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/markdash)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/6 "2010-06-17T19:48:00Z")
> [@UncleRojelio](#): > > I saw that game. He was robbed. > > But I missed the SA game. What did the keeper get sent off for? A player for Uruguay had the ball in front of the net with no defensemen around, and made a move on the keeper, so the keeper just slid and took him out in front of the goal. Pardon my American-ish. I’m sure this would sound better coming from a Brit. ---
**Author:** ![UncleRojelio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/unclerojelio/32/3160_2.png) [@UncleRojelio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleRojelio)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/7 "2010-06-17T20:02:28Z")
> [@MD12](#): > > A player for Uruguay had the ball in front of the net with no defensemen around, and made a move on the keeper, so the keeper just slid and took him out in front of the goal. Thanks, I’ll look around for a clip. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/8 "2010-06-17T20:11:09Z")
[Here ya go.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDwlu3e_XjM) ---
**Author:** ![UncleRojelio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/unclerojelio/32/3160_2.png) [@UncleRojelio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleRojelio)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/9 "2010-06-17T20:23:45Z")
> [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > [Here ya go.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDwlu3e_XjM) Yeah, the keeper was late and there was contact. Bad move. He should have stood his ground. ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/10 "2010-06-17T20:31:36Z")
> [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > [Here ya go.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDwlu3e_XjM) That clip is backwards (mirrored, that is). Bizarre. ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Sensitive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/58956e/32.png) [@Darth\_Sensitive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Sensitive)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/11 "2010-06-17T21:13:22Z")
> [@MD12](#): > > A player for Uruguay had the ball in front of the net with no defensemen around, and made a move on the keeper, so the keeper just slid and took him out in front of the goal. > > Pardon my American-ish. I’m sure this would sound better coming from a Brit. Yep. Automatic send off for “Denying an Obvious Goal Scoring Opportunity” (DOGSO among officials) And when Mexico scored today, ESPN flashed a graphic saying that the team scoring first in the WC wins 70% of the time, though no breakdown of draws and PK wins. ---
**Author:** ![Ximenean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/aca169/32.png) [@Ximenean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ximenean)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/12 "2010-06-17T21:34:49Z")
I still don’t think it was DOGSO. He was, like the _General Belgrano_, heading away from the area of conflict, and the ball was running away from him. Imagine that the keeper didn’t foul him – I doubt that he would “obviously” have scored. Looked to me more like one of the many defenders in the area would have collected the ball and blasted it 50 yards forwards. ---
**Author:** ![Gotterfunken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/58956e/32.png) [@Gotterfunken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gotterfunken)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2010, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/13 "2010-06-17T22:09:29Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > The last one I remember very clearly (although there have certainly been others) was Jens Lehmann in the 2006 Champions League Final getting sent off for Arsenal. Made even more dramatic because Arsenal actually scored to take the league before half-time after being reduced to 10 men, but ended up losing to Barcelona 2-1. I think that was the first time (and thus far only time) a 'keeper had ever been sent off in a European Cup/Champions League final, although keepers have been sent off in earlier stages of that tournament. Also in 2006, the goalkeeper for Turkey was sent off in one of the group games of Euro '06. What made that red card all the more hilarious was that Turkey had used up all 3 of their subs by that point, so Tuncay–who normally plays as a striker or midfielder–had to take the keeper’s place in goal. There have certainly been goalkeeper red cards in less high-profile matches since 2006, but I can’t think of any memorable ones off the top of my head. ---
**Author:** ![Cubsfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Cubsfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cubsfan)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2010, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/14 "2010-06-18T22:11:02Z")
Ironic that the US came back from 2-0 just today. [http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/soccer/world-cup-2010/writers/grant\_wahl/06/18/us.slovenia/index.html?eref=sihp](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/soccer/world-cup-2010/writers/grant_wahl/06/18/us.slovenia/index.html?eref=sihp) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stafford\_Cripps](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stafford_cripps/32/7167_2.png) [@The\_Stafford\_Cripps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stafford_Cripps)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2010, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/soccer-chance-of-a-comeback/543501/15 "2010-06-19T00:25:50Z")
> [@Gotterfunken](#): > > What made that red card all the more hilarious was that Turkey had used up all 3 of their subs by that point, so Tuncay–who normally plays as a striker or midfielder–had to take the keeper’s place in goal. Until not that long ago you saw this happening several times a season, when a keeper got injured or sent off.