Er…you are talking apples and oranges if you are comparing SS payments to T-Bills. If the government defaults on T-Bills it means there basically IS no US gvmt anymore. You understand this, right?
As for another stock market crash, you have to think in the long term. In the long term even with a major crash like that in '29 the trend of the market is up. And since there are now breaks in place to prevent another really bad crash like that, another one of that magnitude is unlikely.
-XT
Of course, but how many more of these T-Bills are now being issued? What’s the difference, now, between the SS “Trust” and a big heap of T-Bills? I just feel like a lot of this is a shell game.
I do need to read more, I admit fully, and haven’t had a chance yet. I will. I don’t know if I’ll have more of substance to add, but I’ll try. Maybe next week when I can devote more than fifteen minutes to something other than work. Sorry, I should probably hold my tongue until I know more.
Why not? Keith Richard and David Bowie are in great shape at their ages. Maybe some recreational drugs are actually preservatives in high enough concentrations.
It’s true that life expectancies, being simple averages, can be misleading, skewed as they are by infant mortality, something that has gone way, way down over the last century. But you have to consider also what the risk factors the elderly had when SS started. A long, comfortable retirement was a rarity. Few people lived into their eighties at all, much less healthily. Many or even most environmental factors were worse - air and water were more often and more heavily polluted, sanitation was spotty, etc. Also, almost everyone smoked then, and now it’s uncommon. I just don’t see the overall picture for those of us who will retire in the next decade or two being anything short of much better than for our parents.
BTW, the government never has to default on its obligations, no matter how irresponsibly run. It can always inflate the currency to the point where they become affordable out of cash flow. There are certainly other consequences, but it’s nowhere near unprecedented.
But what is the trust fund made up of, xtisme?
Isn’t that what Bush and others are saying when they claim there is no trust fund? Aren’t they suggesting that they will be defaulting on the treasury bills that make up the trust fund?
If by ‘trust fund’ you are talking about SS, then basically there is no trust fund. Basically payroll taxes are exacted from those who work (up to a certain cap) and payments are dispensed from that same stream. And the excess (while there still is an excess) goes back into general funds IIRC. The SS system is not the same as a T-Bill…unless you want to define things extremely loosely. T-Bills (again, off the top of my head) are bills the government sells in return for a promise to pay a certain (fixed) amount in a short period. They have completely different mechanisms they use, and there is a completely different level of ‘trust’ that goes into them. As I said, if the government stops paying on T-Bills we are in serious problems…while the government could default on SS, and in fact WILL default on part of the payments if things stay the way they are with no changes.
Well Hentor my friend, Bush et al say a lot of stupid things. For myself, when they start talking trash like this I usually chalk it up to’bullshitting the masses’ who don’t know better and probably think there IS some kind of ‘trust fund’ out there…maybe all their little pennies in a bank somewhere snug and secure.
-XT
You’re wrong.
Federal workers, as has been stated here already, switched to FERS a little over 20 years ago. I know this because my mother retires under FERS on Tuesday and she just turned 60 a couple of weeks ago. Under FERS, your age plus your years of service must be 80 or higher. Mom is 60; you do the math.
No state or municipality worker is exempt from FICA. Neither is the military. Military retirement is a non-contributory benefit received for making your ass available to be shot at for twenty or more years.
No. Actually, SS is very different from “other forms of welfare.” What most conservative folks think of as a welfare program involves middle class people giving their money to various miscreants, ne’er do wells and layouts so they can enjoy the life of Reilly off the sweat of others. But most middle class folks, with the exception of right wing nutjobs, understand that in social security, you pay money out but will get money back at retirement time. So you’re paying for your own retirement (in a sense).
I know the far right doesn’t see this at all, and far be it from me to persuade you to see it, because I’ve been enjoying watching Bush and his supporters stick their dicks in that pencil sharpener, and hope to enjoy it some more.
On preview, I see that Debaser actually agrees with my point about how Social Security is perceived, therefore my previous post is moot.
The next point would be, most middle class folks have NO IDEA how the federal government handles the trust fund, and they don’t comprehend Bush’s saying there isn’t one – their parents are getting SS checks, the money has to come from SOMEWHERE, right?
What they figure is that if a crisis comes the feds will pull the money from the same magic moolah basket they ALWAYS get money from, somehow. If that doesn’t work, they’ll vote whoever’s in office at the time out wholesale and get in some guys who’ll take care of biz.
Sorry if I sound cynical, but George Bush IS our president.
:eek:
Not quite. The trust fund is quite separate from the general fund. The trust sells special treasury bills to the government.
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/fundFAQ.html#n1
No, that’s not correct. Here’s what the t-bills that make up the social security trust fund actually say:
I think you are confusing the trust fund, which consists of t-bills purchased with the surplus taxes collected since the 80’s, with current payments to recipients. The government could no more default on trust fund t-bills than it could on the t-bills others are suggesting you invest in.
Please educate yourself on this issue. There is a trust fund, made up of treasury bills, that cannot be defaulted on. The government must pay back the bills - it is an obligation that it cannot default on. That money has been borrowed from all of the folks who paid extra taxes in for many years. It is owed to us, and we must understand that we must demand it back.