# Social Security watch thread -- from rumor to fact to speculation and back again **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [March 23, 2025, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976 "2025-03-23T13:20:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2025, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/121 "2025-03-28T01:34:44Z")
I’m glad to hear it. I hope that it goes as well for me in a few months. ---
**Author:** ![Ellecram](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellecram/32/18948_2.png) [@Ellecram](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ellecram)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2025, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/122 "2025-03-28T02:09:12Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > I’m glad to hear it. I hope that it goes as well for me in a few months. I hope it goes well for you also. I was a bit anxious about the whole thing. Good luck! ---
**Author:** ![WolfpackJeep](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpackjeep/32/2921_2.png) [@WolfpackJeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WolfpackJeep)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2025, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/123 "2025-03-28T07:32:46Z")
When I started college in 2000, they were still using social security numbers, but I vaguely remember them switching over to student ID numbers at some point before I graduated. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2025, 9:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/124 "2025-03-28T09:56:36Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > The news is reporting this morning that a new policy will start today regarding folks who were overpaid benefits. Instead of paying back 10%, they will now have 100% of their check held until the balance is paid off. > > This is going to cause some problems for those who live check to check, which I imagine is a lot of people. Remember: cruelty is the point. I have often heard wealthy people in my life insist people should not depend solely on SS to survive their old age. Well, OK, maybe in an ideal world they shouldn’t but the fact is many DO. It’s a denial of reality. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2025, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/125 "2025-03-28T09:59:16Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Pilot certificates (licenses) used the SSN as the certificate number. A page on the FAA site that was last updated in 2022, they say that certificates are now issued with unique certificate numbers. (Also, you can change your SSN certificate number to the new number scheme.) Last time I updated my pilot’s certificate (from cardboard to plastic) there wasn’t an option - they were removing the SS#'s. It now has a non-SS# When I first got my license there was an option to NOT use your SS# as the ID, but the examiner had jumped over that already and seemed to have no clue why I would opt out of using my SS#. I was mad about it, but it didn’t seem like getting in an argument with my examiner at the start was a good tactic for wrapping up training and getting the certificate. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2025, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/126 "2025-03-28T23:58:07Z")
So has anyone here ever been involved in a major software project? > **[DOGE Plans to Rebuild SSA Code Base in Months, Risking Benefits and System...](https://www.wired.com/story/doge-rebuild-social-security-administration-cobol-benefits/)** > > Social Security systems contain tens of millions of lines of code written in COBOL, an archaic programming language. Safely rewriting that code would take years—DOGE wants it done in months. As of 2016 it had 60 million lines of code, mostly COBOL. My guess is there will be major problems and it will result in a large number of people having delays in getting benefits. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/127 "2025-03-29T00:41:47Z")
Isn’t this the type of thing AI is perfectly suited for? Analyze 60 million lines of COBOL code, then output C++ (or whatever) to replicate the functionality? ---
**Author:** ![duality72](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duality72/32/3910_2.png) [@duality72](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duality72)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/128 "2025-03-29T00:54:36Z")
Theoretically, yes, but only theoretically. That hasn’t been proven out with a significant number of small projects, much less any number of large projects of this size. Expect a complete clusterfuck. ---
**Author:** ![leahcim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b4bc9f/32.png) [@leahcim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leahcim)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/129 "2025-03-29T02:04:54Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Analyze 60 million lines of COBOL code, then output C++ (or whatever) to replicate the functionality? If they are content with 80%-correct code, sure. Code translation problems tend to require more precision than unsupervised LLMs tend to provide. _(Not to mention that 60 million lines of undocumented, untested, spaghetti logic don’t magically become tractable just because it is written in a different language. The code isn’t an unmaintainable mess just because it is written in COBOL. It’s written in COBOL because it is an unmaintainable mess to the point that people have given up on trying to update it)._ ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/130 "2025-03-29T13:50:05Z")
I was kinda expecting two weeks. My next-to-last job before I retired was infrastructure support for a major project to replace a system that calculated and collected unemployment taxes. The project had been awarded to an outside contractor, which had been less than accommodating when it came to sharing information. I was present at one meeting where the topic of parallel testing (which involves running the same datasets through the old and new systems and comparing the results) came up. The exchange between the department manager and project manager went something like this: > DM: When are you going to schedule a parallel test? > PM: Why would you want to do that? > DM: (Once he’d regained some composure): To make sure the results match. > PM: They’re not going to. We’re talking about two different systems. The impact of jaws hitting the floor probably registered on seismographs all over the region. Short story long, the initial production run was so wildly off that the agency was inundated with angry calls and a revised (but still only about 90% accurate) run had to be done. If this cockamamie idea goes through, I expect something similar. If not worse. ---
**Author:** ![Ellecram](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellecram/32/18948_2.png) [@Ellecram](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ellecram)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/131 "2025-03-29T17:54:14Z")
My personal experience so far with the current SS system has been exemplary. I already have the back pay in my bank account from my Wednesday phone appointment and my first actual check is scheduled for the third Wednesday in May. So at least I know the direct deposit information is correct lol. I really hope they just leave it alone. Just happy to have this personal systemic battle done for now. Then on to the Medicare system (which gives me nightmares trying to figure out). ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/132 "2025-03-29T18:45:53Z")
I very highly recommend getting an advocate for Medicare. The insurance companies pay into a fund that pays for the advocates so it’s free to you. They are outstanding. I used one for ACA and will again for Medicare in a few years. My mom uses one for Medicare. You should be able to find one by Googling. ---
**Author:** ![Ellecram](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellecram/32/18948_2.png) [@Ellecram](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ellecram)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/133 "2025-03-29T19:26:51Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > I very highly recommend getting an advocate for Medicare. The insurance companies pay into a fund that pays for the advocates so it’s free to you. They are outstanding. I used one for ACA and will again for Medicare in a few years. My mom uses one for Medicare. > > You should be able to find one by Googling. Thank you for your response. It’s good advice. I have already talked to a couple of brokers locally and one of the people assigned to advise people at the Area agency on Aging. One of the local brokers seems very knowledgeable. My problem is I take an expensive blood thinner medication. One of the other similar medications is currently in the process of going generic so I am just keeping an eye on things. Also a bit cautious with all of the unfolding chaos. But I was thankful that the Social Security system worked so well. I hope their efficiency continues for everyone. I wanted to share my experience here to give people some hope. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/134 "2025-03-29T22:26:53Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > **Long waits, waves of calls, web crashes: Social Security is breaking down:** A flood of cuts led by Elon Musk has sent the agency into chaos as a new commissioner prepares to take charge. I am quite sure that the dysfunction and inconvenience is the point. Social security is a program that provides more benefit to the poor than to the wealthy, and so i somehting they really want to cut. But they can’t just cut benefits or raise the entry criteria, with it being the third rail of politics and all that. So they cut staff which saves them a hundred million dollars or so. Small potatoes relative to a 1.6 Trillion government program. But that’s not where the real savings are. Doing this and taking other actions to root out “fraud and abuse” will much harder to access the benefits. Not so hard that nobody can get in but just so that some 10-15% can’t access it. That’s the same savings as cutting 10-15% cut in benefits, but you don’t have to announce a benefit cut. Further anyone who was not able to access the benefits must have either been committing fraud, or else just wasn’t motivated enough to make a simple trip and so probably didn’t need the benefits anyway. ---
**Author:** ![doreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/858c86/32.png) [@doreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doreen)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/135 "2025-03-29T22:39:54Z")
Is the advocate for original Medicare or for Medicare advantage or for supplements? ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/136 "2025-03-29T22:48:19Z")
You’re not asking me, but I believe every state has a SHIBA contact (Senior Health Insurance Benefits Assistance program). These are staffed by certified volunteers who are unaffiliated with insurance in any way. They can guide you through the Medicare process. I tried to find a general phone number to provide more information for you, but all I’m getting is information for my own state. I suspect a search on “SHIBA” plus the name of your state will give you what you need. Good luck! ---
**Author:** ![doreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/858c86/32.png) [@doreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doreen)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/137 "2025-03-29T22:58:07Z")
I understand how to find them - but what I am asking is exactly what does “guide you through the Medicare process” mean ? My understanding (which could be easily be wrong - or could change) is that if you start receiving SS benefits before you are eligible for Medicare , you will automatically be enrolled when you are eligible. I don’t need a supplement or Medicare advantage because I have coverage from my former employer, so I’m wondering if there is any reason for me to contact an advocate. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/138 "2025-03-29T23:05:06Z")
Out of an abundance of caution, I would. There are implications for your costs to enroll in Medicare down the road should that ever become necessary for you. If it’s not a concern ever, then you probably don’t need to speak with them. Personally, I found them enormously helpful when my time came to understand all this stuff, and it was nice to talk to advisors who had no skin in the game, so to speak. Just help. I, too, began receiving Social Security benefits before I reached Medicare age. I believe I was automatically enrolled in Medicare when I hit 65, but even though it’s not that long ago, don’t quote me on that! Contacting a SHIBA rep won’t cost you or obligate you to anything. They’re great. ---
**Author:** ![doreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/858c86/32.png) [@doreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doreen)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/139 "2025-03-29T23:14:37Z")
Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [March 29, 2025, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976/140 "2025-03-29T23:35:38Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > You’re not asking me, but I believe every state has a SHIBA contact (Senior Health Insurance Benefits Assistance program). These are staffed by certified volunteers who are unaffiliated with insurance in any way. They can guide you through the Medicare process. Hopefully the federal government won’t lean on the states to axe their SHIBA’s, considering Elmo still holds a flame for the DOGE meme after all these years. Now let’s just figure out a way to make memeified abbreviations of other critical positions. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/social-security-watch-thread-from-rumor-to-fact-to-speculation-and-back-again/1015976.md?page=8)