And during that extremely high tax period, gov’t revenue as a percentage of GDP didn’t change very much.
That is a chart of federal corporate and income taxes as a percentage of GDP. The grey bars are recessions. I chose 1954 as the starting point becuse that’s when the top marginal rate was set to 91%. The gray bars mark periods of recession in the U.S.
What you’ll notice is that tax revenue has fluctuated between 14.5% of GDP up to about 19.5%. But also note where the dips and valleys are: The dips tend to coincide with recessions, and the rises with periods of stable economic growth between recessions.
Now here are some major tax rate changes during that period:
1964: Top marginal rate lowered to 70% from 92%
1982: Top marginal rate lowered to 50%
1988: Top marginal rate lowered to 28%
1988-2000: Top marginal rate slowly increased to 39.6%
The top marginal rate then slowly slid back a bit to around 35% now.
The chart also includes corporate taxes. At the start of the chart, corporate tax rates were 52%. Around 1986 they were lowered to 35% from I believe around 46%. Then in 2018 they were lowered to 21%. We don’t have data for that, though.
As you can see, even with a 52% corporate tax and a 92% top individual marginal tax, government revenue as a percentage of GDP was scarcely different than it was in 2008 before the crash.
The two largest increases in government revenue as percentage of GDP came in several places:
- the 70’s, when inflation took hold and bracket creep temporarily forced people into higher brackets, followed by a reversion to the mean when inflation was broken by a recession
1990-2000, with a ten year expansion of the economy and the dot-com boom which drove corporate profits up, followed by a reversion to the mean with the inevitable crash.
2011-2016: reversion to the mean from the low of the crash, plus gov’t stimulus
But what if we don’t compare it to GDP, but just look at government revenue in constant dollars?
As you can see, revenue goes up because of economic growth. The only big changes on the curve came in 1999 and 2009. One was due to the dot-com bust, and the other the 2008 crash. Notice revenue hardly moves off the graph with the big tax changes mentioned above.
The idea of using corporate or income taxes to fund a vastly expanded welfare state has to contend with the reality shown in this graph. It is extremely hard to extract money from people past a certain point in a free society, as the incentives you create will be used to either thwart your plan through creative financing, tax avoidance, or shifting of assets, or will cause a commensurate reduction in economic activity amongst the people most highly taxed.
So how do other countries have higher overall taxes? One way is a national sales tax, which could probably bump taxes up by a few points of GDP, but that’s a regressive tax that falls mainly on the working class.
The other places that have managed higher revenues from their income taxes generally have high-trust societies with a fairly homogenous population, such as in Sweden.