# Somebody please prove this isn't true. **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 12, 2020, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601 "2020-04-12T03:21:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/1 "2020-04-12T03:21:48Z")
This came up on Facebook. [Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death | Flourish](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/?fbclid=IwAR3BoZnOC6vYwJGM3Ag6JMC9p0frUhYWCVbCbbdBMk-0-BNhq1aHgILUZaA) ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/2 "2020-04-12T03:27:45Z")
Nope, as far as I know it’s right and even if we don’t do anything stupid it will probably get worse before it gets better. CMC fnord! ---
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/3 "2020-04-12T03:32:02Z")
Watch it for 30 seconds and whoa! ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/4 "2020-04-12T03:32:55Z")
Huh. Very interesting graphic if accurate( I assume it is ). Thanks for posting it. ---
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/5 "2020-04-12T03:43:20Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Huh. Very interesting graphic if accurate( I assume it is ). Thanks for posting it. If you watch till the end, it stops at 4/8… ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/6 "2020-04-12T04:22:49Z")
It’s tossing in single-day values with annual per-day averages? ---
**Author:** ![Beckdawrek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beckdawrek/32/3647_2.png) [@Beckdawrek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beckdawrek)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/7 "2020-04-12T04:34:32Z")
That’s scary. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/8 "2020-04-12T05:52:18Z")
> [@SayTwo](#): > > It’s tossing in single-day values with annual per-day averages? Yes. It seems to use the actual number of deaths per day against unchanging averages of deaths per day. Still, I cannot see much wrong with that. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/9 "2020-04-12T06:14:35Z")
> [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](#): > > Yes. It seems to use the actual number of deaths per day against unchanging averages of deaths per day. Still, I cannot see much wrong with that. My guess is the effect would be different if we graphed deaths by year and watched the virus make its progress. ---
**Author:** ![Doug\_K](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5ac83/32.png) [@Doug\_K](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Doug_K)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/10 "2020-04-12T06:23:13Z")
It can’t be the actual number of deaths per day. If you pause it and slowly slide it from 04/07 to just before 04/08 it starts at 1971 and goes down to 1941. I don’t think 30 people came back to life between the beginning of the day and the end of the day. Rather than asking if anyone can prove it’s not true, how about asking for proof it is true? Whoever this Robert Martin is, he gives no source for any of his numbers. ---
**Author:** ![russian\_heel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f05b48/32.png) [@russian\_heel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/russian_heel)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/11 "2020-04-12T06:23:39Z")
The only problem you will encounter with this is there is a contingent of assholes on Social Media arguing that the medical profession is “mislabeling” the cause of death as COVID-19 when they “really” died of pre-existing conditions. To which I reply, who says? You or a trained Coroner? And surely that person would have lived longer without COVID-19 knocking them off early. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Aspidistra](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspidistra/32/3894_2.png) [@Aspidistra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspidistra)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/12 "2020-04-12T06:29:48Z")
> [@Doug\_K](#): > > It can’t be the actual number of deaths per day. If you pause it and slowly slide it from 04/07 to just before 04/08 it starts at 1971 and goes down to 1941. I don’t think 30 people came back to life between the beginning of the day and the end of the day. > > Rather than asking if anyone can prove it’s not true, how about asking for proof it is true? Whoever this Robert Martin is, he gives no source for any of his numbers. 1971 people died from covid on the 7th Another 1941 people died from it on the 8th. It’s not cumulative. You can check the numbers on here - [An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC](http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/) - the covid numbers are basically fine, though I haven’t looked up the other mortality figures ---
**Author:** ![Carryon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9fc29f/32.png) [@Carryon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carryon)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/13 "2020-04-12T06:40:26Z")
> [@russian\_heel](#): > > The only problem you will encounter with this is there is a contingent of assholes on Social Media arguing that the medical profession is “mislabeling” the cause of death as COVID-19 when they “really” died of pre-existing conditions. > > To which I reply, who says? You or a trained Coroner? And surely that person would have lived longer without COVID-19 knocking them off early. > Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk But that is way too often subjective. If the coronavirus triggers a heart attack, which is it? Since the person probably would’ve lived without a heart condition, then the coronavirus didn’t cause the death. You can’t simply dismiss people as ‘asshole’ for raising valid questions. ---
**Author:** ![Carryon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9fc29f/32.png) [@Carryon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carryon)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 6:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/14 "2020-04-12T06:43:17Z")
I also think people read too much into this, as it’s simply a statement reflecting a current trend. That trend will not continue long term, whereas heart problem and cancer certainly will. It’s like comparing ebola with malaria. One is endemic one is epidemic. They are apples and oranges in a statistical sense. ---
**Author:** ![Triskadecamus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b19c9b/32.png) [@Triskadecamus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Triskadecamus)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/15 "2020-04-12T06:47:37Z")
One of the problems in asking “are you a trained coroner?” is that there is no standard to which you might be referring. Coroners are appointed by towns, counties, or cities. It’s a political job with virtually no future, and very little pay. There is no requirement for any particular level of education or training. State law confers authority on coroners. Funeral parlor owners are the default choices in small jurisdictions, because they deal with dead people a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Francis\_Vaughan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/francis_vaughan/32/3093_2.png) [@Francis\_Vaughan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Francis_Vaughan)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/16 "2020-04-12T08:06:34Z")
Yup. As it stands it is simply representation of what has already happened. There is nothing more to be said. Trends are another matter. There is no trend depicted other than what your mind places on things. There is of course a trend, and that is reflected in understanding of what is happening. For instance, the animation could be showing the effect of a mass poisoning. People people getting sick and the cases coming in thick and fast. Find the source and you stop it dead. We know that isn’t what is happening, and because of that we can apply more nuanced analysis. Since we know it is an infection, we can apply knowledge of how epidemics spread. Have a watch of this: [https://www.3blue1brown.com/videos-blog/exponential-growth-and-epidemics](https://www.3blue1brown.com/videos-blog/exponential-growth-and-epidemics) ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/17 "2020-04-12T11:13:55Z")
> [@Carryon](#): > > But that is way too often subjective. If the coronavirus triggers a heart attack, which is it? Since the person probably would’ve lived without a heart condition, then the coronavirus didn’t cause the death. > > You can’t simply dismiss people as ‘asshole’ for raising valid questions. What would be \*really \*useful is to show that actual deaths from heart disease alongside the C19 deaths, day by day. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/18 "2020-04-12T12:12:52Z")
Yep, exponential growth will do that. But note that the big exponential growth seems to have ended and we are entering more linear-like territory. On the other, other hand: There’s going to be a noticeable increase in the next two weeks due to all the Easter and Passover gatherings. ---
**Author:** ![lobotomyboy63](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobotomyboy63/32/2900_2.png) [@lobotomyboy63](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lobotomyboy63)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/19 "2020-04-12T13:05:21Z")
> [@Francis\_Vaughan](#): > > Have a watch of this: > [https://www.3blue1brown.com/videos-blog/exponential-growth-and-epidemics](https://www.3blue1brown.com/videos-blog/exponential-growth-and-epidemics) The only thing to fear is the lack of fear itself…touché ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2020, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601/20 "2020-04-12T13:07:32Z")
I’m not sure what is surprising about this. It’s nicely presented and makes its point. But we all know deaths due to coronavirus have been increasing, and if in some place more people die from that than other common causes, this is what can happen during a pandemic. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/somebody-please-prove-this-isnt-true/851601.md?page=2)