# South Carolina Primary Discussion **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 10, 2020, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733 "2020-02-10T15:19:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/21 "2020-02-12T21:03:30Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > Always the conspiracy theories with Sanders supporters. It gets really old. > > Steyer is probably out soon anyway, it looks like he won’t make the debate stage and I think that’s what he wanted I’m not so sure I would qualify myself as a Sanders supporter given that I will never vote for him (or against him for that matter). I just think Sanders would be good for the USA, if for no other reason, then to dispel a lot of the myths (lies) about socialism and how it would destroy the country. In any case, there is plenty of evidence to suggest strong bias against Sanders in the left progressive mainstream media (MSNBC, Washington Post, etc.), which is a reflection of the DNC (or perhaps vice versa). Again, unfortunately for Americans you have two parties. One party wants to give 11 of 12 cookies to the rich, 1 cookie to the middle class, and crumbs to the poor. The other party wants to give 10 cookies to the super-rich, 2 cookies to the rich, a f\*ck you to the middle class and poor (oh and a promise of no gun control and no abortions to the middle class and poor). ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/22 "2020-02-12T21:18:37Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > No one expected him to win in iowa or NH. His real test is SD. And he is still polling very well. Why South Dakota? ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/23 "2020-02-12T21:35:38Z")
> [@Yankees\_1996\_Champs](#): > > Biden wins South Carolina > > But his campaign is sinking At this point, I really don’t think so. I’m reminded of the fact that Obama didn’t start polling well among black voters until he started winning primaries amongst white voters - I think this reflects a pragmatism that is focused on voting for a winner. But now that Biden isn’t looking like that winner, I think black voters will abandon ship. And I believe that Sanders talks to them about their concerns, so he has the best shot at gathering their votes. If you win the black vote, you win the South Carolina Democratic primary. (I say this as somebody who isn’t a Sanders supporter, although I’m more on the fence than I was before the first two primaries. In the interest of disclosure, I’m also not a black voter). ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/24 "2020-02-12T21:49:48Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > 1. If South Carolina was coming up next and Nevada the week after, I think Biden would have a slight chance to bounce back. However, I assume he will get a weak 3rd at best in Nevada. Unfortunately for him in that scenario the narrative will be that he not only did poorly in two mostly white states, but in a state with a larger minority population. I think that will be enough to crater his support even in a largely African-American state. > > 2. Who does that leave as the beneficiary? I’m going to predict Bernie to finish first in the low 30s on the strength of the white vote. Given Mayor Pete’s problems winning minority voters, that leaves Klobuchar as the likely beneficiary and I’m going to predict she comes in 2nd. 3rd place will be either Mayor Pete or Biden, depending on just how poorly Biden does in Nevada. Warren will end up in 5th. 1. I agree, if SC were next or even NV and SC a few days from now that would be one thing. But it’s likely another weak showing in NV in 10 days and 17 days till SC. With ‘horse race’ media coverage harping that entire time on how badly Biden did, which anonymous (or maybe even on the record) operatives and donors think he should quit, his sinking national poll numbers (and they absolutely will decline), etc. And particularly one the idea for whom is ‘electability’ IOW somebody you vote for because you think he or she is relatively more acceptable to other voters. Striking out in IA/NH doesn’t literally disprove that, since it’s a different electorate in later primaries and the general. But again in reality it tends to undermine that type of candidate particularly badly. Also election discussion on internet is typically among people highly interested in politics. To a lot of people even who vote in primaries, this is just starting now. Previous poll preferences for Biden really were I think in part name recognition or a little less shallowly, Obama’s VP. You’d also expect a challenge for a name recognition based front runner to keep voters engaged with what he’s actually saying v less familiar candidates, once non-political junkies are actually paying attention. If you tank in IA/NH it shows you’re not doing that. It’s not likely to change dramatically in a different part of the country or w/ different color voters. Plus he depends a lot on big ‘establishment’ donor money, which is particularly fickle. There’s no grass roots cult of personality around Joe Biden, for better or worse. He’s basically toast IOW. And that’s not just repeating something till it’s true, it’s just how it tends to work in this kind of situation with that type of candidate 1. That one I think is a lot harder to say. But as you suggest ‘doesn’t do well with black voters\*’ is a label affixed or which plausibly could be to every significant candidate except Biden. But I really do think Biden is a goner, and somebody will get those votes, or rather the implication of votes from polls taken before most people are paying much attention, which really starts after IA/NH, very few polls elsewhere so far reflect what happened to Biden there. \*some comments say ‘minorities’ but I see even less basis to say Latino, Asian or whatever other categories of voter one would include as ‘minority’ won’t vote for various candidates besides Biden or what strong preferences they’d have among them. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2020, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/25 "2020-02-12T22:23:23Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > \*some comments say ‘minorities’ but I see even less basis to say Latino, Asian or whatever other categories of voter one would include as ‘minority’ won’t vote for various candidates besides Biden or what strong preferences they’d have among them. Bernie leads Latinos and the catchall “other minorities” group by a wider margin than Biden leads among blacks, so yeah… ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2020, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/26 "2020-02-13T00:11:31Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > … > If Sanders does well, e.g., first or very strong second, then it is probably all over. South Carolina, as others have pointed out, should be a weakness for Sanders, so if he crushes it there, the only way he doesn’t get the nomination is if the DNC stacks the deck against him hard. …] The DNC can do very little to “stack the deck”. In 2018 they gave Hillary hints as to the questions for one debate, which had no significant difference. It’s the voters, not the DNC that decides things, and in 2016 the voters\* overwhelmingly picked Clinton.\* Your guy lost. Get over it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2020, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/27 "2020-02-13T00:12:40Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Why South Dakota? SC. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2020, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/28 "2020-02-13T00:14:40Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I don’t think it’s a conspiracy theory – it seems pretty clear, and pretty out in the open, that the DNC doesn’t really like Bernie. …s. Why should they? It is the \*\*Democratic \*\*National Committee, and bernie is not a democrat. Should the DNC support trump too? :rolleyes: but there is almost nothing the DNC can do, the voters decide. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2020, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/29 "2020-02-13T00:29:07Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > The DNC can do very little to “stack the deck”. In 2018 they gave Hillary hints as to the questions for one debate, which had no significant difference. > > It’s the voters, not the DNC that decides things, and in 2016 the voters\* overwhelmingly picked Clinton.\* Your guy lost. Get over it. Not my guy so nothing to get over, but uhhh whatever. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2020, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/30 "2020-02-13T00:38:41Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Why should they? It is the \*\*Democratic \*\*National Committee, and bernie is not a democrat. > > Should the DNC support trump too? :rolleyes: > > but there is almost nothing the DNC can do, the voters decide. Where did I say they should? They’re a good foil for Bernie. And I agree, there’s very little they can do - which is why they’ve been so ineffective in their efforts to stop Bernie. So Bernie gets the best of both worlds - a centrist, corporate friendly foil that legit opposes him, giving him major outsider cred, but they’re so weak and ineffective, and yet at the same time so obvious, that their efforts do little more than enhance his credibility and tarnish their own. Thanks, DNC! ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2020, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/31 "2020-02-13T02:15:41Z")
Not seeing much engagement around the Upstate of South Carolina. Zero yard signs along my route to work. Talk among coworkers takes the form of trying to choose the least unpalatable selection with not a hint of excitement about a candidate they are eager to support. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2020, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/32 "2020-02-13T02:21:31Z")
I’m in Charleston. I’ve seen Kamala, Pete, Bernie, Warren and a lot of others here. But we’re a strong blue section of a red state. Though we did elect our first D congressman in SC-01 since Nixon. So we got that going for us, anyway. Still, this thing is a mess here. Everyone seems to assume Biden’s got the African-American vote sewn up but I don’t see it when I talk to people at D committee meetings. I get a lot of ‘we’ll see’ and ‘I’m undecided’ from our AA members. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/33 "2020-02-19T17:46:54Z")
Latest poll shows Biden & Sanders tied with Steyer and Buttigieg as the only above 15%. Interestingly Tulsi has 1% support. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/34 "2020-02-19T17:48:57Z")
I do think Steyer starts to drop after he’s not on the debate stage tonight. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2020, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/35 "2020-02-21T16:43:19Z")
Biden looks like a solid second place in Nevada. IF he does well, will he get a bump in SC and be looking good going into Super Tuesday? ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2020, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/36 "2020-02-22T04:00:18Z")
I am ignoring Nevada. South Carolina will make a difference, I suppose. Super Tuesday will end this primary at long last. ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2020, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/37 "2020-02-22T16:40:00Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Latest poll shows Biden & Sanders tied with Steyer and Buttigieg as the only above 15%. Interestingly Tulsi has 1% support. I traveled through SC a few days before Christmas and saw several Tulsi billboards up along the highway. I did not see any for any other candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2020, 8:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/38 "2020-02-23T08:33:56Z")
Saw my first Democratic yard sign here in the Upstate today — Tom Steyer. Candidate appearances in the coming week seem to largely be focused in other parts of the state. Columbia, Orangeburg, and Charleston will be getting a lot of attention. Bernie supports are advertising for door knocking events in Clemson but no indication he will appear. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 23, 2020, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/39 "2020-02-23T18:09:41Z")
God DAMN it, Steyer is back for the next debate. These fucking billionaires. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2020, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733/40 "2020-02-25T19:14:28Z")
Looks like Biden got a bounce coming out of NV and headed into SC [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/south-carolina-primary-discussion/847733.md?page=3)