# Space X Launch Today--Return to Space
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556
**Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
**Created:** [May 27, 2020, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556 "2020-05-27T17:50:50Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/1 "2020-05-27T17:50:50Z")
So who else has go fever? I’m excited to see us launch people back into space after nine years. 4:33pm Eastern.
I’ve tried to research, but how safe is this launch? Better than the shuttle?
I would hope that after 40 years there have been improvements. What are the most noticeable improvements? Does it have bluetooth? 🙂
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### Author:  [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/2 "2020-05-27T17:52:16Z")
You can watch the live NASA feed here: [https://www.nasa.gov/nasalive](https://www.nasa.gov/nasalive)
The assistants helping the astronauts look like dystopian executioners of the future. Maybe they could choose a different color.
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### Author:  [@Darryl\_Lict](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darryl_Lict)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/3 "2020-05-27T18:25:22Z")
Completely stoked. Astronauts seated!
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### Author:  [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/4 "2020-05-27T18:45:45Z")
Another question: Are these missions as sensitive to the weather as others? I remember shuttle launches being scrubbed because of cloud cover over the emergency landing area.
Is that the same with this vehicle or is it boys, turn on the lights and wipers because we are a go?
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### Author:  [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/5 "2020-05-27T18:45:46Z")
I gotta admit those suits sure are spiffy.
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### Author:  [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/6 "2020-05-27T19:03:37Z")
It should be safer than the Shuttle (STS).
I don’t think anyone, even today, really knows how reliable the STS was. Before the Challenger disaster, NASA management had wildly optimistic views on STS reliability: 1 failure in 10,000 launches, for example. That was obviously not true. Based on how it actually behaved, a 1-2% failure rate is more likely.
The Falcon 9 has had 87 launches, 85 full successes, and one partial success (primary payload was placed in orbit). Very roughly speaking, that is on par with the STS failure rate.
However, the STS had few realistic abort options. Although they planned a number of contingencies, some of these sound like a joke–for example, if they can get the Shuttle into a stable glide over the ocean, they can extend a pole from the door and slide out, parachuting to safety. But the odds that a launch anomaly can result in the Shuttle flying away without significant damage seem negligible to me.
In contrast, the SpaceX capsule (like all capsules) has a launch abort system that can pull the capsule away from the booster. It has a heat shield on the bottom, adding some protection, and is basically a simple system that can work under a wide variety of situations (including an exploding rocket). The capsule would have been just fine in the one Falcon 9 full failure.
Unlike other capsules, the Dragon keeps its abort system all the way into orbit. Most use solid rocket motors that are jettisoned sometime during flight, and so lack a working abort during that time. Dragon can abort for the entire launch.
So while the launchers are probably comparable in reliability (though I’d still give the nod to SpaceX), the chance of launch of life should be significantly lower for SpaceX. NASA gives the odds at 1/270 (or at least that was the standard they had to hit).
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### Author:  [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/7 "2020-05-27T19:12:36Z")
When they talk about the astronauts Bob and Doug…
I can’t be the only one who thinks of Bob and Doug McKenzie.
‘Take off, eh! No, really. _Take off!_’
ETA: [Bob and Doug talk about the Space Arm](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pOU-SKj9jQ)
.
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### Author:  [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Asking_Questions)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/8 "2020-05-27T19:22:12Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#):
>
> When they talk about the astronauts Bob and Doug…
>
> I can’t be the only one who thinks of Bob and Doug McKenzie.
>
> ‘Take off, eh! No, really. _Take off!_’
>
> ETA: [Bob and Doug talk about the Space Arm](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pOU-SKj9jQ)
>
> .
Coupla hosers!
For those of us of a certain generation, they really should call them Robert and Douglas. I can’t help it, every time they say “Bob and Doug”, I turn into a teenager.
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### Author:  [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/9 "2020-05-27T19:33:14Z")
Said weather is a no go right now but hope it will clear.
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### Author:  [@2gigch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2gigch1)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/10 "2020-05-27T19:52:25Z")
Fueling begins!
Launch Escape System armed!
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### Author:  [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/11 "2020-05-27T20:03:20Z")
> [@UltraVires](#):
>
> Another question: Are these missions as sensitive to the weather as others? I remember shuttle launches being scrubbed because of cloud cover over the emergency landing area.
Your memory is correct. [This article](https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/spacex-may-launch-today-but-weather-is-a-huge-concern/) mentions those emergency sites (in the Azores, Spain, and France). I’d guess that these launches will be slightly less sensitive as a result.
You can see a list of the launch criteria for the Crew Dragon [here](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/falcon9_crewdragon_launch_weather_criteria_fact_sheet.pdf), and the Shuttle [here](https://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/news/releases/2003/release-20030128.html). They’re a bit hard to compare, although several elements are identical: for example, no launch within 10 miles of a thunderstorm anvil cloud.
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### Author:  [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/12 "2020-05-27T20:17:52Z")
Scrubbed. Dammit.
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### Author:  [@2gigch1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2gigch1)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/13 "2020-05-27T20:18:27Z")
Oh well, see ya Saturday!
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### Author:  [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/14 "2020-05-27T20:18:30Z")
Scrubbed due to weather. Try again in a few more days.
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### Author:  [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/15 "2020-05-27T20:20:02Z")
They just mentioned the weather trending against them and they are monitoring it for a possible no-go. Meanwhile, the countdown is still proceeding. T-30:00!
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### Author:  [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/16 "2020-05-27T20:23:16Z")
Can this craft reuse this fuel? I remember that on the Shuttle it cost several hundred thousand dollars to scrub after the fuel was loaded.
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### Author:  [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/17 "2020-05-27T20:23:25Z")
Huh, I guess I was watching the “live feed” with a few minutes delay, so I learned about the scrub here. Well, too bad. The next try is Saturday.
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### Author:  [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/18 "2020-05-27T20:36:00Z")
I stayed up for _this_. The Russians launch in snowstorm FFS.
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### Author:  [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/19 "2020-05-27T20:38:35Z")
> [@UltraVires](#):
>
> Can this craft reuse this fuel? I remember that on the Shuttle it cost several hundred thousand dollars to scrub after the fuel was loaded.
Shuttle [reused its fuel, too](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/shuttle/launch/sts-115/qa-leinbach_prt.htm):
> [@](#):
>
> Leinbach: This is a great question and something we’ve struggled with as a team for quite some time. There are folks that believe we could leave the external tank loaded and go for the next launch attempt the next day. The fuel is reused. We drain back from the external tank into the large spheres that you see out at the launch pad. **So, we do recover the fuel. Some of it is lost in boiling off during the attempt, but never-the-less we do reuse about 90% of the fuel.** We do it really for one major reason: If we have to enter the launch pad after a scrub, it’s a lot more safe for ground crews to do so with the external tank empty than it is full. So, that’s the principle reason we drain the tank. There are other considerations. One being the fatigue of our engineers in the control room who would have to monitor the tank continuously if it were to remain full. The principle reason is the safety of the ground crews that we always send out to the pad after a scrub. That’s really why we drain back.
I have no doubt that SpaceX reuses their propellant as well. If for no other reason than that it’s annoying to get rid of kerosene–it doesn’t evaporate and it would take forever to flare off.
The LOX is so cheap to be basically free. They probably reuse it since it’s simpler to do that, but it doesn’t really matter. SpaceX uses supercooled LOX, so they would need to chill it back down to the proper temperature after draining.
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### Author:  [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)
#### Post date: [May 27, 2020, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/space-x-launch-today-return-to-space/854556/20 "2020-05-27T20:43:45Z")
1522 Saturday?
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