# Speaker Ryan: Will it be and if so for how long? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 23, 2015, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589 "2015-10-23T23:18:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/1 "2015-10-23T23:18:01Z")
So having demanded the preconditions of endorsement from the Freedom Caucus, their dropping of the “vacate the chair” rule, and dropping their insistence on diminishing the power of the position, and having received none of his demands … accepting instead “support” and a promise to “discuss” what he wants procedurally later and a promise that he won’t have to spend too much extra time fundraising … it looks like Ryan will be elected Speaker. Yes? If so, if he is willing to step into the stinking pile that is that position at this point in time with backing down from his stated lines in the sand as his first tone-setting action even before getting voted upon, how long will he last? I give him less than a year. Other more informed guesses? ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/2 "2015-10-23T23:43:18Z")
Yes, I think so. I don’t know for how long though. I think there are just too many variables, especially the election next year, that could affect it. I don’t know a lot about him. I’ve heard he can be reasonable, but I’ve also heard the opposite, so I have no idea how he will do in the position. From the speech he gave, I am hopeful, but that could just be wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/3 "2015-10-24T00:18:42Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I give him less than a year. Other more informed guesses? As I alluded to in the other thread, he just threw away any leverage he might have had. He played the game of “I don’t really want this, so I can walk away any time.” When they said no, and he decided to run anyway, this little ruse was exposed. So, yeah, I think we’ll see Speaker Ryan. And he won’t have any more authority than Boehner did, and will see the same results. How long he lasts in the role is dependent on how much he’s willing to put up with a powerless Speakership. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/4 "2015-10-24T02:23:54Z")
I think his future will be known fairly quickly. It will come down to how he handles the debt ceiling limit deadline. He only has one and a half weeks to figure out a way to get the Tea Partiers in line. I assume that he won’t actually let the country default. ---
**Author:** ![Stringbean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Stringbean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stringbean)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/5 "2015-10-24T14:34:09Z")
Paul Ryan is largely respected among Tea Partiers. Saying he will not garner no more authority than Boehner, the prototypical establishment guy, is questionable. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/6 "2015-10-24T14:37:23Z")
I find it amusing that a guy who voted against family leave has been denied same. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/7 "2015-10-24T15:36:00Z")
Well, so they say. What are they gonna do, have the House bailiff detain him at the airport? I think his family thingy is a ruse so that he has a viable excuse not to campaign and fund raise for those House members who aren’t cooperative enough. But all of this boils down to one as yet unanswered question: Just how crazy is the Batshit Cadre? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/8 "2015-10-24T16:50:05Z")
Well, clearly he will be Speaker but I doubt it will be very long before the Freedom Caucus lunatics starting kicking the shit out of him as hard as they can since he strikes me as someone willing to work with the devil Obama. How long he puts up their antics remains to be seen. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/9 "2015-10-24T17:11:48Z")
> [@Stringbean](#): > > Paul Ryan is largely respected among Tea Partiers. > > Saying he will not garner no more authority than Boehner, the prototypical establishment guy, is questionable. Ryan is a former VP candidate and now on the cusp of Speaker of the House. He’s establishment. As for being respected, that may be true now, but his choices going forward are to either try to get things done (budgets passed, debt limits increased) and lose that respect, or completely destroy the party. He’ll likely do the former. It’ll be interesting to see how long that “respect” lasts. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/10 "2015-10-24T21:31:04Z")
He is not going to go along with the dumbass caucus, how does this end any different than Boehner? there is no talking your way out of “no, you can’t fucking sink the country because you didn’t get your stupid demands met”. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/11 "2015-10-26T13:32:34Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > He is not going to go along with the dumbass caucus, how does this end any different than Boehner? there is no talking your way out of “no, you can’t fucking sink the country because you didn’t get your stupid demands met”. It’s not just that he’s not conservative enough for the caucus, but also some voters are turning on them for not being conservative enough. [Here’s an interesting article from Washington Post about how upset people are:](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/fuming-over-ryan-some-conservative-voices-turn-on-the-freedom-caucus/2015/10/25/8194f3ce-7999-11e5-a958-d889faf561dc_story.html?tid=sm_tw) > [@](#): > > Things may never be the same for the Freedom Caucus after most of its members moved last week to support Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as the next House speaker. Suddenly, they may not be conservative enough for some in the party. > [@](#): > > The anger over Ryan’s ascent has been fueled by voices across the conservative media landscape. On the Internet, sites such as [Breitbart.com](http://Breitbart.com) and the Drudge Report have pumped out a steady stream of anti-Ryan stories casting doubt on his record, while such prominent commentators as Erick Erickson, Ann Coulter and Mickey Kaus have sharpened their teeth and urged conservatives to contact lawmakers and tell them to spurn Ryan. > > Particularly brutal have been the syndicated talk-radio hosts who have helped foment the anti-establishment outrage that has kept Donald Trump atop the GOP presidential race and forced Jeb Bush, a well-financed mainstream conservative, to undertake a campaign shake-up. > > Laura Ingraham last week called Ryan “basically John Boehner with better abs” and featured segment after segment attacking Ryan’s positions on trade and immigration. She also mocked his desire to spend his weekends with his family. It sounds like Ryan isn’t going to have a much easier time than Boehner. And if he follows through with some of his demands, like not helping out with fundraising for candidates because he’s spending time with family that will definitely not help. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/12 "2015-10-26T16:00:13Z")
I’m figuring through the election. No longer. If he’s out before then it’s a sign of the collapse of the Republican Party. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/13 "2015-10-26T16:12:30Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > It’s not just that he’s not conservative enough for the caucus, but also some voters are turning on them for not being conservative enough. Yeah, I just saw that early this morning. With the pressure being put on some of the members of the Freedom Caucus by the far right talking heads and bloggers this thing could collapse much quicker than I thought. I doubt he makes it to Election Day. One compromise and the rabid right will really go ballistic. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/14 "2015-10-26T17:54:02Z")
How come we don’t actually know who’s in this “Freedumb Caucus”? I keep hearing its “about forty” and some guys are definitely part of it, but whazza deal, here? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/15 "2015-10-26T18:13:53Z")
[Now you do.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Caucus) ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/16 "2015-10-26T18:41:29Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I’m figuring through the election. No longer. > > If he’s out before then it’s a sign of the collapse of the Republican Party. [“Fire Paul Ryan”](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/24/us/politics/conservative-pacs-turn-attack-on-gop-leaders-into-fund-raising-tool.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0) is the new rallying cry from Conservative PACs, and it seems to have traction on blogs: > [@New York Times](#): > > “Conservatives forced John Boehner to resign, Kevin McCarthy to forsake his run for speaker, and we have got to stop the establishment’s latest pick: Paul Ryan,” said the email sent out on Wednesday to nearly one million conservatives around the nation by Constitutional Rights PAC, which is running the “Fire Paul Ryan” campaign. > > Larry Ward, the founder of Constitutional Rights PAC, defended the move to derail the ascension of Mr. Ryan, calling it a worthy goal. > > “Politics is supposed to be bloody. It is supposed to be a battle of will,” Mr. Ward said. “And the one who can get the American people siding with them is the one who wins.” > > But Mr. Ward also has a financial stake in the fight. He runs Political Media, a Washington-based firm that will charge Constitutional Rights PAC a fee for sending out the blast email with the dual purpose of asking conservatives to help dump Mr. Ryan and to donate to Mr. Ward’s political action committee. > > “Help us fund the fight by making an emergency donation of $30, $50 or even $100 today,” the email said, even though records show that Mr. Ward’s PAC spends every dollar it gets on consultants, mailings and fund-raising — making no donations to candidates. Mr. Ward defended his use of his own firm, saying he gave his PAC a discount on his company’s regular service charges. > > Mr. Ward has plenty of competitors. Groups including the Tea Party Leadership Fund, the Madison Project and the Tea Party Patriots have in the past year turned the attack on the Republican leadership into a fund-raising tool, records show. Politics Is Our Profession, and Business Is Good. If they bomb out their own party, I won’t be a bit surprised. It’s certainly painted a big enough target on its back by creating them and nurturing them for so long. Let’s see how well Paul “Romney-” Ryan stands up to the Cashservative assault. The article is absolutely wonderful. I suggest you read it in full. Oh, I can’t resist. Open the spoiler box for the punchline:[spoiler] > [@He said](#): > > “These groups stir people up on issues that don’t exist or solutions that can’t be achieved and hold members to impossible tests,” said Representative Greg Walden of Oregon, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which raises money for candidates. “There needs to be an investigation into these groups. Where does the money go?” [/spoiler] ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/17 "2015-10-26T19:20:20Z")
The budget/debt ceiling fights are the early test on whether he can be effective. If he can’t sooner seems more likely than later. Early internal punches are already being thrown during this cycle. If the primaries swing back towards the more extreme elements of the Party he’s a lame duck speaker just waiting to see who gets the job next. If the last midterm pattern of the more establishment candidates winning the primaries, he’s probably set for as long as he can put up with the headaches without quitting or going postal. ---
**Author:** ![Billdo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/billdo/32/315_2.png) [@Billdo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Billdo)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/18 "2015-10-27T21:21:11Z")
I think Boehner and Obama extended Ryan’s life expectancy as Speaker substantially by reaching a [budget agreement](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/us/politics/congress-white-house-budget-deal-boehner.html)that deals with the issues of the debt limit and temporary spending expiration. If Ryan can avoid having to deal with those issues, which the hard-liners had hoped to use to achieve their aims under the threat of crippling the government (and perhaps the country), he will probably be able to keep Congress together, and thus the Speakership for at least six months, and perhaps through the election. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/19 "2015-10-27T21:41:58Z")
Yeah, Boehner really took a bullet for Ryan on his way out the door. He really didn’t need his first action as Speaker to be a huge fight with the “Freedom Caucus.” Ryan is pretending to be mad about Boehner’s deal, but there’s a case of scotch and a new set of golf clubs waiting in his office. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2015, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589/20 "2015-10-27T21:42:53Z")
With any luck at all the GOP will split, and that’ll be the end. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speaker-ryan-will-it-be-and-if-so-for-how-long/735589.md?page=2)