# Speculate on a McMullin presidency. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 14, 2016, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504 "2016-10-14T13:05:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/21 "2016-10-14T20:07:49Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > It looks like the guy’s polling has jumped from 12% last month to 20-22% this month. That’s not a powerball fantasy. 538 currently pegs him at a 3% chance of winning. That’s not powerball level odds. > > There’s a derth of polling in Utah so it’s difficult to make out exactly what’s going on. If Utahns’ disgust with the current election keeps up, maybe he can steal 5 more points from each of them or get a lot of undecideds/Johnson voters. I would never have thought it a few months ago but it’s no longer something to laugh off if polling continues this way. 3% chance of winning \*Utah. \* 0% chance of winning the Presidency. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/22 "2016-10-14T20:12:30Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > 3% chance of winning \*Utah. \* 0% chance of winning the Presidency. The bit of conversation you jumped in the middle of was about Utah. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/23 "2016-10-14T20:20:00Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The bit of conversation you jumped in the middle of was about Utah. From the OP: **Speculate on a McMullin presidency.** \*What would a McMullin presidency look like? Would he preside as a good chap? A micro-manager? A Putin-wannabe? \* ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/24 "2016-10-14T20:27:07Z")
You responded to my post, not the OP, and my post was clearly talking about him winning Utah. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/25 "2016-10-14T20:56:36Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > The steps that would be needed for McMullin to become President: > > 1. He has to beat Trump in Utah. > 2. He has to beat Clinton in Utah. > 3. Trump and Clinton have to virtually tie in the Electoral College. > 4. The Republicans in the House of Representatives have to decide they’d rather have McMullin than Trump as President. > 5. The Republicans in the House of Representatives have to decide they’d rather have McMullin than Clinton as President. > 6. The Democrats in the House of Representatives have to decide they’d rather have McMullin than Clinton as President. > 7. The Democrats in the House of Representatives have to decide they’d rather have McMullin than Trump as President. > 8. The House of Representatives would have to be willing to choose a candidate who got six electoral votes over either of the two candidates who got 266 electoral votes. Just to add to your list. He also has to beat Johnson for third place in the EC to be an option. Which isn’t super unlikely, but a world where Clinton’s support falls enough for her to fall under 270 is one where Johnson probably does a lot better than his current polling suggests. And since he’s in the ballot in a lot more states than McMullin, Johnsons a lot more likely to pick up those votes. And in the event of no one getting the majority of the EC, the two parties actually have a six way choice, since they can effectively decide to chose one of the VP candidates as well by having the House consciously gridlock and than having the Senate chose a VP-elect, who would become President on inauguration day. Since I suspect Kaine or Pence are both more palatable compromise choices than Clinton, Trump, McMullen (or Johnson) I think even in the extremely unlikely event that the choice came to the Congress, McMullin would still be unlikely to find himself in the Oval Office. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/26 "2016-10-14T23:06:21Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Or all the Johnson voters could move to McMullen. And people abandoning Trump could continue to move towards McMullen. Quit trying to make it more complicated than it is. He needs a plurality. It’s not likely, but that’s all that’s necessary. Well, all Jill Stein needs to do to win Utah is get a plurality. But at the moment, she’s running in fifth place. So to get that plurality, Jill Stein needs to beat Donald Trump and she needs to beat Hillary Clinton and she needs to beat Evan McMullin and she needs to beat Gary Johnson. That’s four different people she needs to beat and if she misses any one of them, she loses the state. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/27 "2016-10-14T23:24:54Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Well, all Jill Stein needs to do to win Utah is get a plurality. But at the moment, she’s running in fifth place. So to get that plurality, Jill Stein needs to beat Donald Trump and she needs to beat Hillary Clinton and she needs to beat Evan McMullin and she needs to beat Gary Johnson. That’s four different people she needs to beat and if she misses any one of them, she loses the state. And yet 538 puts McMullin at a 3% chance of winning Utah but no mention of Stein or write in candidates DrDeth and Little Nemo. It must puzzle you. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/28 "2016-10-14T23:37:06Z")
Honestly, I suspect what would happen if McMullin won Utah and no candidate won a majority of the EC is that McMullin would instruct his Electors to vote for Hillary. The point of his candidacy is to prevent Trump, not make himself President, and in the case where the choice went to the House, the overwhelming odds are that they would choose a Trump Presidency. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/29 "2016-10-15T02:38:03Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > And yet 538 puts McMullin at a 3% chance of winning Utah but no mention of Stein or write in candidates DrDeth and Little Nemo. It must puzzle you. I don’t see why I would be puzzled by it. It’s what I’ve already explained. Here’s the order of the candidates, according to recent polls: 1. Trump 2. Clinton 3. McMullin 4. Johnson 5. Stein DrDeth and I are not running for President. (At least, I’m not. For all I know to the contrary, DrDeth may in fact be Alyson Kennedy of the Socialist Worker’s Party.) So McMullin is behind two other candidates. Stein is behind four other candidates. DrDeth and I are behind all of the five candidates I’ve listed. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/30 "2016-10-15T03:02:14Z")
McMullin would probably govern a lot like Mitt Romney would have, with a little Bush 41 mixed in given his background. As for his chances, if he wins Utah and Clinton doesn’t have a majority of electoral votes, he’s in. Or Pence is in if the House deadlocks. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/31 "2016-10-15T14:34:44Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Simplicio** : > > He also has to beat Johnson for third place in the EC to be an option. Which isn’t super unlikely, but a world where Clinton’s support falls enough for her to fall under 270 is one where Johnson probably does a lot better than his current polling suggests. And since he’s in the ballot in a lot more states than McMullin, Johnsons a lot more likely to pick up those votes. Johnson is going to beat McMullin in the popular vote, but that’s irrelevant. It doesn’t matter how many states Johnson gets 10% or 15% in, because he’s not going to win any of them. McMullin, however, just might win Utah. In McMullin’s best state, he’s six points behind the first-place candidate. How far behind the leader is Johnson, in his best state? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/32 "2016-10-15T18:15:54Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Johnson is going to beat McMullin in the popular vote, but that’s irrelevant. It doesn’t matter how many states Johnson gets 10% or 15% in, because he’s not going to win any of them. McMullin, however, just might win Utah. In McMullin’s best state, he’s six points behind the first-place candidate. How far behind the leader is Johnson, in his best state? He’s at 10% in his best states. He certainly is currently unlikely to win any if polls remain how they are. But than, Hillary is very unlikely to need Utah to push her over 270, so the OP’s scenario pretty much requires some sort of large national shift in polling to come true. A shift to Johnson is unlikely, but not any less likely than any of the other things that would need to happen to make a McMullin Presidency. If we’re going to list the unlikely things that would need to happen to make McMullin Prez, it seems worth noting that there are equally unlikely things that could block him. But in any case, I think the best argument against the OP’s scenario is the one in my last post. Even in the extremely unlikely event of his winning Utah and none getting an EC majority, McMullin himself probably would take steps to keep it going to the House. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/33 "2016-10-15T19:24:25Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I don’t see why I would be puzzled by it. It’s what I’ve already explained. > > Here’s the order of the candidates, according to recent polls: > > 1. Trump > 2. Clinton > 3. McMullin > 4. Johnson > 5. Stein > > DrDeth and I are not running for President. (At least, I’m not. For all I know to the contrary, DrDeth may in fact be Alyson Kennedy of the Socialist Worker’s Party.) > > So McMullin is behind two other candidates. Stein is behind four other candidates. DrDeth and I are behind all of the five candidates I’ve listed. You found me out!:eek: :D:p ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/34 "2016-10-15T19:30:30Z")
Of course there are unlikely events that could block McMullin. But there are also a lot of highly likely events that could block him. Given the existence of those highly likely events, it’s not worth considering the unlikely ones. By contrast, there is an unlikely set of events that could result in someone other than Clinton or Trump becoming President (McMullin’s path). But there is not any likely set of events that results in that. So even though McMullin becoming President is unlikely, it’s still an interesting possibility to discuss. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/35 "2016-10-15T20:23:01Z")
Folks, play the hypothetical! Let’s have some fun. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/36 "2016-10-15T20:43:19Z")
You mean, speculate about what his presidency would be like, in the unlikely event that he won? There’s not much to go on, there, based on his lack of political background, and his (thus far) low public exposure. Most likely, he’d be leaning pretty heavily on his slate of advisors. I can see three ways that could go: One, he could be dominated by a single Cheney-type, which means that his presidency would be very similar to one held by that chief advisor. Two, he could just use a typical selection of Washington Republicans for advisors, meaning that his presidency would be about as close to “Generic Republican” as it’s possible to get. Three, he might know enough about politics and about management to be able to choose a slate of advisors on his own, in which case one can hope that he might end up with a pretty decent set (which might even be influenced by the compromises and deals he’d need to make to get elected at all). ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/37 "2016-10-15T21:19:38Z")
Well for fun (!? what’s wrong with me?) I watched a couple interviews. He didn’t dive deep into policy in the ones I saw but he came off kind of like a wonk. If they hadn’t introduced him as a candidate you could easily mistake him for some expert they brought on by his demeanor and careful answers. Given his time as an adviser to the Committee on Foreign Affairs and as policy director to the Republican Conference, I would assume he would have a decent idea about who he would want on his team and some sense of direction. Being a newb to the politics game he would have to leave a lot of heavy lifting to his team and not have any grand goals. So my guess would be generic, caretaker Republican presidency. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2016, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/38 "2016-10-16T05:17:33Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > You mean, speculate about what his presidency would be like, in the unlikely event that he won? There’s not much to go on, there, based on his lack of political background, and his (thus far) low public exposure. Most likely, he’d be leaning pretty heavily on his slate of advisors. I can see three ways that could go: One, he could be dominated by a single Cheney-type, which means that his presidency would be very similar to one held by that chief advisor. Two, he could just use a typical selection of Washington Republicans for advisors, meaning that his presidency would be about as close to “Generic Republican” as it’s possible to get. Three, he might know enough about politics and about management to be able to choose a slate of advisors on his own, in which case one can hope that he might end up with a pretty decent set (which might even be influenced by the compromises and deals he’d need to make to get elected at all). McMullin’s resume actually suggests someone who while not ready to be President, knows a lot of stuff. You don’t become head of policymaking for a faction of your party and a CIA analyst without knowing a lot of stuff about both domestic and foreign policy. That being said, knowing stuff doesn’t make you ready to govern, but it does mean he has enough knowledge to at least build on once he’s in office. But he will be a generic Republican if he wins. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/39 "2016-10-19T17:22:36Z")
I think that if he wins Utah and no one gets a majority of EVs, he still doesn’t have much of a shot at the Presidency. The Republicans have a pretty large majority in the House, so effectively they get to choose the President. Given the choice between McMullin and Trump, I _think_ that most Democrats would be willing to vote McMullin. I think Clinton has basically no chance in that case. It would take 31 Republican representatives willing to vote for Clinton and every Democrat. Even right now, when Trump is a total dumpster fire, most Republicans aren’t willing to distance themselves from him. And the case that we’re talking about is one where he’s somehow recovered enough to basically be in a dead heat with Clinton. If Republican elected officials were going to reject Trump on grounds of principle, they’ve had many months to do so, and generally haven’t. ETA: Sorry, I misread the OP, and followed the same line of discussion most others had. I think most of us don’t really know enough about McMullin to reasonably speculate on how he’d actually be as a President. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/40 "2016-10-19T17:30:39Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > If Republican elected officials were going to reject Trump on grounds of principle, they’ve had many months to do so, and generally haven’t. But many of them have dumped him, haven’t they? Anyway, that’s not the point of this thread. Are there any interviews with him or articles by him on which we can prognosticate and speculate? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504.md?page=3)