# Speculate on a McMullin presidency. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 14, 2016, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504 "2016-10-14T13:05:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/41 "2016-10-19T17:43:48Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > I think that if he wins Utah and no one gets a majority of EVs, he still doesn’t have much of a shot at the Presidency. > > The Republicans have a pretty large majority in the House, so effectively they get to choose the President. Given the choice between McMullin and Trump, I _think_ that most Democrats would be willing to vote McMullin. > > I think Clinton has basically no chance in that case. It would take 31 Republican representatives willing to vote for Clinton and every Democrat. To nitpick: If the house votes, they vote as states, not as representatives. You’d need 26 state delegations, not 218 representatives. Since so many of the small states are republican, the Dems would have a much smaller effect on the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/42 "2016-10-19T21:10:00Z")
Well, it’s starting to look like McMullin will indeed win Utah: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah\_trump\_vs\_clinton\_vs\_johnson\_vs\_stein\_vs\_mcmullin-6154.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein_vs_mcmullin-6154.html) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/43 "2016-10-19T21:13:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, it’s starting to look like McMullin will indeed win Utah: > > [2016 Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin | RealClearPolling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein_vs_mcmullin-6154.html) Umm, no.:dubious: One out of five polls has him in a small lead.:rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/44 "2016-10-19T21:16:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, it’s starting to look like McMullin will indeed win Utah: > > [2016 Utah: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein vs. McMullin | RealClearPolling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein_vs_mcmullin-6154.html) Oh noz! McMullin broke Real Clear’s formatting! Still, it’s one poll. Hard to say whether or not he will follow the pattern of other 3rd party polling, i.e. collapse in the voting booth. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/45 "2016-10-19T21:43:11Z")
He’s gaining fast, probably because the media has highlighted his high poll standing in that state. 538 says he has a 10% chance now to win Utah, although their model is not used to the kind of dynamic we’re seeing. I say he’s got more like a 60% chance at this point. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/46 "2016-10-19T21:52:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > He’s gaining fast, probably because the media has highlighted his high poll standing in that state. > > 538 says he has a 10% chance now to win Utah, although their model is not used to the kind of dynamic we’re seeing. I say he’s got more like a 60% chance at this point. OK, I say he doesnt win. Bets? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/47 "2016-10-19T22:25:30Z")
Let me see another couple of polls first. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/48 "2016-10-19T22:57:43Z")
Ladbrokes have McMullin at 500/1. Perhaps a fun punt? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/49 "2016-10-19T23:10:14Z")
For Utah, or the Presidency? For Utah I’ll take those odds in a heartbeat. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/50 "2016-10-19T23:38:37Z")
> [@yellowjacketcoder](#): > > To nitpick: If the house votes, they vote as states, not as representatives. You’d need 26 state delegations, not 218 representatives. Since so many of the small states are republican, the Dems would have a much smaller effect on the outcome. Oh, right. That’ll teach me to stop reading the Amendment 3 paragraphs in. So, yeah, even less chance, then. You don’t just need any 30 republican defectors, you need specific ones from certain states. Sorry, OP, I bet hardly anybody really knows anything about this guy to opine, but lots of us like to speculate on elections! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2016, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/51 "2016-10-21T11:18:57Z")
Three straight polls now showing McMullin either ahead, or one point behind: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah\_trump\_vs\_clinton\_vs\_johnson\_vs\_stein\_vs\_mcmullin-6154.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein_vs_mcmullin-6154.html) He’s clearly got momentum here, which does not happen to third party candidates in October. I think Utah’s actually going to give their votes to their favorite son. Good on them. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2016, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/52 "2016-10-21T11:59:52Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > Sorry, OP, I bet hardly anybody really knows anything about this guy to opine, but lots of us like to speculate on elections! And that is why I love the Dope. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2016, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/53 "2016-10-21T14:37:51Z")
A McMullin victory in Utah would do wonders for 3rd parties. Showing it can actually be done. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2016, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/54 "2016-10-21T14:50:49Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > A McMullin victory in Utah would do wonders for 3rd parties. Showing it can actually be done. I don’t know about that since this is a pretty peculiar set of circumstances. He’s a “favorite son” candidate running against two unusually unfavorable candidates. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2016, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/55 "2016-10-21T16:57:32Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > A McMullin victory in Utah would do wonders for 3rd parties. Showing it can actually be done. Which is a _bad_ thing. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2016, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/56 "2016-10-21T17:02:58Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I don’t know about that since this is a pretty peculiar set of circumstances. He’s a “favorite son” candidate running against two unusually unfavorable candidates. Sure, but I don’t think the average voter would analyze that deeply. They’ll just read, “For first time in 48(?) years, a 3rd-party candidate wins a state!” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2016, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/57 "2016-10-22T03:32:38Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > A McMullin victory in Utah would do wonders for 3rd parties. Showing it can actually be done. I don’t think that’s really true, since McMullin is actually the darling of the Never Trump movement. He’s the de facto Republican candidate, if a Republican candidate had no money. I think the real lesson of McMullin is that despite it not being a thing for about 40 years, favorite son candidates can still be a factor if the two major party candidates suck. And that might be something for a third party like the LP to try: instead of running one national candidate, perhaps just recruit as many popular state candiddates who can possibly win their own state instead. So Johnson in New Mexico, Weld in Massachusetts, Ron Paul in Texas, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2016, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/58 "2016-10-22T04:51:56Z")
OMG, he’s a Conehead!: [http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/evan-mcmullin-utah/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/evan-mcmullin-utah/index.html) Here’s more on his running mate: [Mindy Finn - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mindy_Finn) ---
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2016, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/59 "2016-10-22T17:46:55Z")
> [@dracoi](#): > > As the 538 article explains, Utah is all he needs, if everything else aligns correctly. > > Which is why I ultimately agree with you that it’s not worth speculating about. It is an interesting lesson in obscure governmental procedures, but hinges on a lot of unlikely events all aligning. If I believed in such alignments, I’d be out buying lottery tickets. > > I do hope he wins Utah though. That would be a nice middle finger to set the Donald’s defeat apart from a run of the mill loss. It also gives him someone to blame, but at least it would be a real someone and not a fantasy conspiracy theory. His chances are far better than your chances of winning the lottery, at least the big prize. Heck so are my chances. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2016, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504/60 "2016-10-22T18:10:59Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Folks, play the hypothetical! Let’s have some fun. It would be more fun were the candidate more fun. I’ve known Mormons and “fun” only enters the conversation when preceded by “not a lot of.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculate-on-a-mcmullin-presidency/768504.md?page=4)