A post was merged into an existing topic: Speculation for and/or Consequences to the US and Elsewhere for Engaging in the Bombing of Iran and Other Targets
Ace reporters Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman get the inside scoop on the OP. In fact they are prepping a book that covers the subject: “Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump”. Gifted
It walks through the thin decision making process which, using the framework of Daniel Kahneman, involves a President who can think fast (intuitively) but not slow and methodically. Readers of the above article should do so critically. Rubio helpfully distinguished between destroying Iran’s missile program (do-able they thought, which is partly true, partly false, which means that Trump only absorbed the first part) and regime change (which Rubio termed as bullshit). Note that consequences, i.e. the blocking of the Strait, received short shrift.
Proper war policy involves getting a little bit granular. Trump sees things not from 30,000 feet, but rather satellite height. He doesn’t do memos. GW Bush’s decision making process was highly problematic, but I don’t think he would have started an Iran War without considering things that any casual viewer of CNN would. Here is a partial list of incidents regarding the Straits of Hormuz from wikipedia. The full list goes back decades.
U.S.–Iran disputes, threats to close the Strait
I say a war like this can’t occur without a sidelining of expert opinion. Which is indeed what happened, very much connected with the cognitive limitations of the President and the appointment of supine courtiers. The Republican business class and political class - the gatekeepers - failed us.
From the prediction thread:
Agreed, and this is reflected in the absence of high level discussion regarding the Straits of Hormuz as reflected in the Swan/Haberman piece above. Also note the small number of people in the relevant meetings. The head of the CIA was in the room (Ratcliffe), but there were no experts or specialists. In Trump I, the leader of the Joint Chief of Staff (Milely) would push back against Trump’s stupidity, but the Trump II replacement (Caine) would just list options and challenges (like the Strait). Well, what would be done about that? That’s a multi-step discussion that Trump would not follow, so it didn’t happen.
No contingency planning, no set goals: they would lean into Trump’s lies and conflicting remarks. It makes sense, as it permits his supporters to hear what they want to hear.
One benefit to Trump, with this war and particularly with his insane, blasphemous, obscenity-ridden rant, was that he got to identify those senior officers who were willing to follow his illegal orders, and those who weren’t. Now he’ll have Hegseth fire those who, up to almost the last minute, were expressing doubts about their willingness to do his bidding, or even making suggestions that maybe he could stay away from the more blatantly illegal acts he was threatening to do. Within a few weeks, we will have an all-MAGA senior officers corps.
I’m sure this falls under speculation for the current White House occupant’s reasons for starting the war.
The article lists some of the stated claims for the war and the current status of said claims. The bolding is mine.
The rest of the article is equally damning.
Everyone around the world with either internet access or television reception, except American Republicans, is aware of this. There will be no convincing American Republicans, as they are preoccupied drawing cartoon images of Trump with bigly muscles and a superhero cape.
Quoting myself from March 6. Trump is.in this to make money. Also to wave his dick around (assuming he can find it with his tiny hands under all that blubber) but mostly to make money.
I said that in March. All the insider trading revelations appear to prove me right. Yay me. Sigh.
It’s also a deflection from a deflection from a deflection… from the Epstein files.
But yeah, he and his traitorous crew are making a ton of money. USA be damned. They don’t care.