# Speculation for and/or Consequences to the US and Elsewhere for Engaging in the Bombing of Iran and Other Targets **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [March 4, 2026, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210 "2026-03-04T22:01:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![CaveMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cavemike/32/16379_2.png) [@CaveMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaveMike)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2026, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/441 "2026-04-11T12:35:12Z")
A couple more consequences. 1. An [NPR article](https://www.npr.org/2026/04/10/nx-s1-5771612/military-iran-war-trump-conscientious-objector) that military retention is suffering. After finally stabilizing under the Biden administration, it is reversing course again. While it is more than the war in Iran (Hegseth’s leadership purge, DEI rollbacks, attacks on Venezuela ships, and NG deployment to cities), the war is bringing the issue to a head. Regarding callers to the GI Rights Hotline: > Galvin says nearly all the callers he talks to mention the bombing of a girls school in Iran on the first day of the war, which killed at least 165 civilians, many of them children. And it’s not just grunts that want out: > “People with really accomplished careers, people in very elite jobs, people who are in Special Forces, people who are Top Gun fighter pilots, physicians, surgeons. … Our highest-ranking CO client right now is a major in the military,” he said. It’s become obvious that renaming the Department of Defense was not just a symbolic change. I think the fallout is that we will find out just how much of our volunteer military draws a red line between defending the US and naked aggression. ---
**Author:** ![CaveMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cavemike/32/16379_2.png) [@CaveMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaveMike)\ **Post date:** [April 11, 2026, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/442 "2026-04-11T12:43:51Z")
1. This [Bulkwark article](https://www.thebulwark.com/p/donald-trumps-unfreedom-of-the-seas-iran-war-hormuz-trade-economy-oil) makes the case that empowering Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz will up-end the policy of open seas across the globe. > The secret of sea power—the secret Mahan exposed to the world in 1890—was that naval power wasn’t the its real measure. The true source of sea power was peaceful commerce and trade, not in lethal strikes or daring descents and raids. The US might be motivated to cede control of the strait to Iran (and Oman) as a way of getting out of the war on the false assumption that it won’t affect the US because we don’t make heavy use of the strait. What happens if other waterways follow suit? ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/443 "2026-04-12T03:54:16Z")
.. and to take up the OP’s “and Elsewhere” invitation, what would happen if, to exploit the situation, and to test the fraying bindings of NATO, Putin was to send a mechanised battalion a mere few hundred meters across the border into central Narva, Estonia? Or the strategists around Xi Jinping determine that there may be a limited window of opportunity to annex Taiwan between now and the end of the 45/47 presidency while the US administration focuses on the American hemisphere, leaving the Asian hemisphere and European hemisphere to whichever strongman wants hegemony? ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/444 "2026-04-12T05:02:10Z")
[Causing the Strait of Hormuz to be closed massively backfires on US.](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/desperate-fuel-us-allies-asia-090055494.html) > [@](#): > > The US has negotiated [a fragile ceasefire](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/09/politics/trump-iran-ceasefire-deal-deadline?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_yahoo) that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Asian allies that depend on the waterway are already being forced to rely on others for energy security– to the benefit of America’s top adversaries. > > After the initial airstrikes by the US and Israel in February, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows. > > Allies in Europe and Asia were not informed in advance of the war or asked to take part from the outset. Nonetheless as the price of crude oil surged, US President Donald Trump [lambasted other nations](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5o3s8eNmEv4) for not sending military support and said those that need it should “take the lead” and “go get your own oil.” > > They now seem to be heeding his words, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, whose economies suddenly [lost their biggest source](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/25/asia/asia-hormuz-energy-austerity-fuel-intl-hnk?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_yahoo) of energy imports and have been hit first by the historic global oil crisis. > > US allies Japan, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines have looked to broker deals with Iran to ensure the safe delivery of oil and natural gas. Asian countries are also buying up more natural resources from US rival Russia, while China has signaled its willingness to help alleviate fuel shortages and deepen energy collaboration with nearby economies such as Australia, the Philippines, and even Taiwan. [Trump says empty tankers are lining up to buy American oil.](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-signals-tankers-headed-us-141132393.html) > [@](#): > > President Trump said Saturday morning that “massive numbers” of empty tankers are headed to the U.S. to stock up on [oil and gas](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/ceasefire-may-bring-modest-respite-100000970.html), as Iran continues to restrict movement in the [Strait of Hormuz](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-says-iran-not-living-224556648.html). > > “Massive numbers of completely empty oil tankers, some of the largest anywhere in the World, are heading, right now, to the United States to load up with the best and ‘sweetest’ oil (and gas!) anywhere in the World,” Trump [wrote on Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116385843841281126). > > “We have more oil than the next two largest oil economies combined — and higher quality,” he continued. “We are waiting for you. Quick turnaround!” [Israel gets Trump’s imprimatur to reduce the chance of peace in Gaza.](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-blessing-israel-expels-spain-165123551.html) > [@](#): > > Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Friday he was ousting Spain from the U.S.-led civil-military strategy center, in charge of maintaining peace in Gaza, following persistent criticism from Spain of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. > > “Israel will not remain silent in the face of those who attack us,” Netanyahu said in a video message [posted on social platform X](https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/2042596981600596128https://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/2042596981600596128). “Spain has defamed our heroes, the soldiers of the IDF, the soldiers of the most moral army in the world,” he added, referring to the Israeli military. > > “Those who attack the State of Israel instead of terrorist regimes will not be our partners regarding the future of the region,” he added. > > From the start of the war at the end of February, Spain has reaffirmed its criticism of and disinvolvement in strikes against Iran, “categorically” denying claims that Madrid had agreed to cooperate with the U.S. It also [restricted the U.S. military](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/spain-says-won-t-let-204922935.html) from using its air bases for operations against Iran, citing a violation of international law. President Trump threatened to cut off all trade with the European country in response to the air base restrictions. Yes, that’s punishing Spain for not caving to the US. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/445 "2026-04-12T05:58:21Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > to test the fraying bindings of NATO, Putin was to send a mechanised battalion a mere few hundred meters across the border into central Narva, Estonia? Just my opinion but I think even without the help of the US, NATO absolutely claps the cheeks of Russia in any theoretical conflict. That is of course unless the US gets involved on Russia’s side. In any case, I’m pretty sure the reason why Europe hasn’t donated their best equipment to Ukraine is because they know they might still need it. And Ukraine has done incredibly well at showing the world how to grind the Russian juggernaut to a halt using, guts, glory and surplus donations of hardware. A military that was purpose-built for fighting the Soviet Union will be pissing in the Moskva in no time. We saw proof of concept for this with Prigozhin’s single day rebellion, which made it about halfway to Moscow basically unopposed. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 7:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/446 "2026-04-12T07:54:01Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > even without the help of the US, NATO absolutely claps the cheeks of Russia This may well be true. I have doubts at Russian capability to fight on a two front war. But this scenario is about probing the political defenses as much as the boots on ground ones. The question really is, in the event of an attack on a fellow NATO member, under [Article 5](https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/collective-defence-and-article-5), would the US make even a nominal contribution to the defense or simply refuse to be involved? If the former, then the combined forces marshalled might escort the Russian forces back across the border without a shot being fired, the strategic aim of the incursion being completed. If the latter, then Putin has achieved one of his primary aims i.e. the functional dismantling of NATO even if formal dissolution requires Congressional approval. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/447 "2026-04-12T13:37:09Z")
Since the U.S. has ended negotiations already, what is the next step? The Strait isn’t open; ships are tiptoeing through it. I wound think that this means that Trump can’t just disengage. So does he escalate the war? Send in ground troops? Or keep flying sorties, risking more downed aircraft? At some point, the stockpile of high tech missiles is going to need to be replenished. I predict that we see some more bombing, then a lull, then a misguided invasion of ground forces. It will surely be ongoing come November, when midterms arrive. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/448 "2026-04-12T15:41:27Z")
Apparently next step is to ALSO block the strait! Presumably to block Iranian or Iranian friendly ships from transiting. It’s an idiotic strategy to be sure, so it’s right up the Trump/Hegseth alley. I assume that he means to spike the world price of oil again and tank the stock market to: A: profit off insider trading B: force the rest of the world to do something or suffer economically. Essentially, Trump is now threatening the entire world, using the US military. He’s showing that he’s just as much an asshole as the Iranians. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/449 "2026-04-12T15:56:38Z")
A _worse_ asshole, since he’s the one that started this shit-war. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/450 "2026-04-12T16:10:08Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Apparently next step is to ALSO block the strait! So now instead of getting kicked in the nuts, Trump is going to kick himself in nuts. Well, it’s a strategy. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/451 "2026-04-12T16:42:23Z")
I’m trying to imagine a way that he could top this. Maybe send arms to Iran? ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/452 "2026-04-12T21:44:36Z")
The could lift sanctions on Iranian oil……. But they already did that > **[US lifts sanctions on some Iranian oil as energy prices soar](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno)** > > The treasury secretary says the move will quickly bring about 140m barrels of oil to global markets. They could go through with today’s threat to intercept ships that pay the new Iranian toll. An unprovoked attack on some Russian or Chinese vessels would be a show of strength that would be certain to end well, no chance of that one backfiring . /s ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/453 "2026-04-12T22:19:23Z")
So, what happens if Iran packs an empty tanker with 3,000 tons of ANFO and aims it at the US Navy blockade ships? ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/454 "2026-04-12T22:59:04Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I’m trying to imagine a way that he could top this. Maybe send arms to Iran? Or announce a sponsorship deal with Hezbollah? ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2026, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/455 "2026-04-12T23:25:39Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > So, what happens if Iran packs an empty tanker with 3,000 tons of ANFO and aims it at the US Navy blockade ships? As far as I know, the USN will typically send a smaller ship, a boat even, maybe covered by a helicopter, with a boarding crew. I imagine a ship approaching our warships would be warned to shove off and failing to follow instructions might result in the USN opening fire. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2026, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/456 "2026-04-13T00:17:41Z")
A similar amount of ammonium nitrate exploded in Beirut, Lebanon in 2020, generating the third largest non-nuclear, man-caused explosion in history, estimated at 1.1 kilotons of TNT. Buildings up to 2 miles away suffered major structural damage. The US Navy won’t be able to blockade many ships if they have to approach them as if they were all floating megabombs. > **[2020 Beirut explosion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Beirut_explosion?wprov=sfla1)** > > On 4 August 2020, a major explosion occurred in Beirut, Lebanon, triggered by the ignition of 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate. The chemical, confiscated in 2014 from the cargo ship MV Rhosus and stored at the Port of Beirut without adequate safety measures for six years, detonated after a fire broke out in a nearby warehouse. The explosion resulted in at least 218 deaths, 7,000 injuries, and approximately 300,000 displaced people, alongside property damage estimated at US$15 billion. The bla... ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2026, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/457 "2026-04-13T06:57:58Z")
[Texas A & M Qatar campus to finish semester online.](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/texas-m-qatar-closes-campus-120000237.html) > [@](#): > > Students at Texas A&M University’s Qatar campus will complete the spring semester remotely as the [war in Iran](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/article/by-the-numbers-us-thrashed-military-targets-in-22199111.php) threatens security across the Middle East. > > The engineering campus switched to online operations several days after the [U.S. and Israel launched strikes](https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/world/article/witnesses-say-they-hear-an-explosion-in-iran-s-21946867.php) on Iran and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28. University officials extended the closure in late March. > > The situation remains unstable in the region. The U.S. and Iran’s [two-week ceasefire](https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-april-7-2026-421ee64fdc9a5c26460df8119c7d1b3f) is shaky, and Israel continues [fighting in Lebanon](https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-april-7-2026-421ee64fdc9a5c26460df8119c7d1b3f). > > A&M and other universities in Qatar were [on guard last month](https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-threatens-us-campuses-in-middle-east/) when Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that U.S.-affiliated campuses in the Middle East could become “legitimate targets” in retaliation for [alleged strikes](https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/31/middleeast/iran-university-campus-attacks-intl) on two Iranian universities. No incidents have been reported at Education City in Doha, where A&M-Qatar is located alongside five other U.S. universities, one Paris-based university and one Iranian university. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2026, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/458 "2026-04-13T08:47:26Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The US Navy won’t be able to blockade many ships if they have to approach them as if they were all floating megabombs. Unless we extend what we are _already_ doing in the Pacific and [just blow ships up](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/strikes-alleged-drug-boats-kill-013858614.html) without bothering to investigate. Of course that would be another victory for Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2026, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/459 "2026-04-13T12:34:32Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > extend what we are _already_ doing in the Pacific Extending the bombing from small drug speed boats with a crew of five to supertankers is **[a bit of a jump, isn’t it?](https://youtu.be/azkFz1ZbXyU?t=131)** ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2026, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/460 "2026-04-13T12:37:19Z")
They already have the ~~hat~~ fleet. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210.md?page=24)