# Speculation for and/or Consequences to the US and Elsewhere for Engaging in the Bombing of Iran and Other Targets **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [March 4, 2026, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210 "2026-03-04T22:01:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2026, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/481 "2026-04-20T09:14:33Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > Iran has been emboldened. This is something that the world will surely not accept. It’s probably not intentional, but this sounds like the kind of retrospective justification for the war that much of right wing media is engaged in. Closing the strait was a desperate act from a country that was attacked by the world’s biggest military. The strait was completely open and free before Israel decided to start a war. And it needs to be reopened now through negotiation. Unfortunately, now that the genie is out of the bottle and Iran knows the strait is easy leverage to invoke at any time, plus they have every reason to distrust the US, it’s an extremely challenging negotiation. IMHO the only solution at this point is to give Iran everything they want, including reparations up front, on the singular proviso of a free and open strait. This will be hard to sell to Americans, but the real tough part will be getting Israel to stop. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2026, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/482 "2026-04-20T11:54:09Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > Oh, yes, that’s the objective reality of the situation, of course, which means our Mad King is utterly oblivious to the facts. No doubt the auto execs humored him while extracting as much financial gain as they could. “Sure, we will tell Fred to stop making Impalas and start making missiles. We’ll start tommorow” Trump is such a dumb ass, he would believe it. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2026, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/483 "2026-04-20T14:24:54Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > plus they have every reason to distrust the US, it’s an extremely challenging negotiation. Agreed. I don’t think the Iranian negotiators _should_ trust the US one little bit. At this point, I don’t blame them for not wanting to be in the same room with Vance, Hegseth or whoever they send. It’s possible they’d just pull out a gun in the middle of negotiations and take hostages. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2026, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/484 "2026-04-20T19:44:11Z")
Trump is demonstrating that the _reason_ governments normally don’t go around casually breaking agreements, ignoring treaties and so on is that when you do things like that, you can’t get agreements even when you want one. Not because they are all “losers” or whatever justification he uses in his head. The fundamental barrier to any meaningful negotiations with Iran is that Trump _is still there,_ so we _can’t_ make any promises they can trust. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2026, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/485 "2026-04-20T20:01:03Z")
This. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [April 22, 2026, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/486 "2026-04-22T18:22:59Z")
[Who knew driving up the price of oil would have a negative impact?](https://www.aol.com/news/airlines-starting-cancel-flights-face-214736993.html) > [@](#): > > All but one of the world’s 20 largest airlines are reducing capacity in the coming months, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. > > Its analysis found the planned global capacity for May has dropped three percentage points since early March. Cirium revised its initial prediction of 4%-6% growth this year, saying it could decline by up to 3% under some potential scenarios. > > The war has disrupted supply chains, trapping oil in storage facilities across the Middle East. > > That saw the [price of Brent crude oil](https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-prices-rise-ahead-us-iran-peace-talks-in-pakistan-2026-4?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=yahoo.com)rocket past $100 a barrel in early March, before dipping back below that benchmark once ceasefire talks began this month. > > [Jet fuel prices](https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-rising-fuel-costs-make-plane-ticket-more-expensive-2026-4?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=yahoo.com) have risen even faster, doubling in price to almost $200 a barrel. And as the war drags on, jet fuel is getting harder to come by for countries that don’t produce it or have limited supplies. > > “In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,” the International Energy Agency’s executive director, Fatih Birol, told the Associated Press on April 16. > > Willie Walsh, the director general of the International Air Transport Association, an airline trade group, said the next day that “by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel.” > > “This is already happening in parts of Asia,” he added in the statement. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2026, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/487 "2026-04-23T16:31:10Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > (Quoting a news article) > That saw the [price of Brent crude oil](https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-prices-rise-ahead-us-iran-peace-talks-in-pakistan-2026-4?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=yahoo.com)rocket past $100 a barrel in early March, before dipping back below that benchmark once ceasefire talks began this month. Brent has gone back up past $100/barrel in recent days. Also the national average seems to have stopped going down. It had maxed out around $4.17/gallon a couple weeks ago, then dropped a penny or two a day to about $4.02. Today it’s changed direction again and gone back up a penny. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2026, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/488 "2026-04-27T03:22:29Z")
I apologize if predictions have been made and my skim of this thread missed them: what will be the facts on the ground by, say, August, and what will be the path to get there? Is the stand off just going to persist that long with all of the US, the world, and Iran in increasing pain? Does Trump find a way to accept complete capitulation and declare it the biggest bestest victory ever achieved? Does Iran actually give some small something that is enough that Trump has something to spin? I’m not seeing off ramps but also can’t see the current circumstances as sustainable over Spring and Summer? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2026, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/489 "2026-04-27T03:57:28Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I apologize if predictions have been made and my skim of this thread missed them: what will be the facts on the ground by, say, August, and what will be the path to get there? The US is continuing to move additional forces into the area, so I wouldn’t be surprised if hostilities resume or even escalate long before then. I’m mostly surprised that these negotiations have lasted this long considering how little substance there has been to them. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2026, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/490 "2026-04-27T04:03:20Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I’m mostly surprised that these negotiations have lasted this long considering how little substance there has been to them. We’re at the “stall for time and hope a miracle occurs” stage of negotiations, I think. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2026, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/491 "2026-04-27T16:52:00Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I wouldn’t be surprised if hostilities resume or even escalate long before then That’s a different statement than saying you predict it. I wouldn’t be surprised by a wide variety of possibilities. That one, wouldn’t surprise me … but wouldn’t think it is the most likely one. I would be less unsurprised by Iran offering a token that leaves the hardliners in strong control, and in a stronger position than they were before Trump intervened, with Trump declaring it the best result ever in history. And his base eating it up. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2026, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/492 "2026-04-27T16:57:09Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Iran offering a token that leaves the hardliners in strong control, and in a stronger position than they were before Trump intervened, with Trump declaring it the best result ever in history. And his base eating it up Except he’d probably blow it by promptly announcing he got them to give something else that was not even discussed and that they have two weeks to make it be so. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210.md?page=24)