# Speculation for and/or Consequences to the US and Elsewhere for Engaging in the Bombing of Iran and Other Targets **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [March 4, 2026, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210 "2026-03-04T22:01:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2026, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/81 "2026-03-12T20:54:49Z")
> [@Ancient\_Nerd](#): > > > [@Roderick\_Femm](#): > > > > some sort of Iran-sponsored attack on California, possibly drones from offshore > > It seems like a boat big enough to launch one of those things coming all the way from Iran would be pretty easy to spot. Perhaps, I couldn’t say. It could be that the FBI is drumming up unjustified fears of Iran because the war is, so far, unpopular. That wouldn’t surprise me a great deal. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/82 "2026-03-13T01:02:49Z")
Is there any intelligent speculation about how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain mostly closed? I was going to post asking for speculation over two options – one where U.S. ground troops occupy the shores of the Strait, and one where we do not. However, this intelligent article claims that the ground invasion option does not exist: [Ghost of Gallipoli: US warships cannot control the Strait of Hormuz](https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ghost-of-gallipoli-us-warships-cannot-control-the-strait-of-hormuz/) > [@](#): > > There is no defensible line that US forces could ever secure. The attempt would be Gallipoli times 10, with the difference that the Iranians could always pull back to interior lines of defence. It is inconceivable that the US would try. With Trump, sometimes the inconceivable happens. But that’s totally unpredictable, and I guess Netanyahu would talk him down from that cliff. So let’s say Trump will not launch a land war in Asia. What’s the speculation on the strait closure timeframe after Trump stops bombing? ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/83 "2026-03-13T01:28:30Z")
If the Iranian government does not collapse, and it looks like it won’t, I think the most probable result is that at some point in the next two months or so Trump declares victory and stops military operations, a bit later Iran, needing the money, stops closing the Straits. Or may be, after some months of closing the Straits, and with the U.S. bombing campaign reduced by sheer logistic fatigue to sporadic attacks, Iran will open the Straits out of economic necessity and save face saying that any new massive attacks or assassinations will be met with another closure of the Straits. That said, knowing the people involved anything can happen, In one extreme if occupying the Straits is impossible Trump may try to occupy the whole country, in the other the Iranian government may fall and be replace by who knows what. TLDR: I would say no more than 4 months or so. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/84 "2026-03-13T01:44:42Z")
Forgot one possibility, the U.S. armed forces somehow open the Straits by force without putting boots on the ground, it looks very hard to me, but I’m not a military expert. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/85 "2026-03-13T02:09:52Z")
I don’t see how. There’s too much Iran that can serve as a launchpad for very long-range munitions (like the 1600-mile Shahed drones). There isn’t enough force that can be usefully projected over that much area. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/86 "2026-03-13T02:38:14Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > If the Iranian government does not collapse, and it looks like it won’t, I think the most probable result is that at some point in the next two months or so Trump declares victory and stops military operations, a bit later Iran, needing the money, stops closing the Straits. > Or may be, after some months of closing the Straits, and with the U.S. bombing campaign reduced by sheer logistic fatigue to sporadic attacks, Iran will open the Straits out of economic necessity… I think you’ve made an assumption not in evidence. Iran is exporting more oil through the Hormuz Strait now than before the war. [Iranian oil exports up about 30% month over month amid U.S.-Israeli war - CBS News](https://share.google/BF5zr6M0X8Qr80mAe) ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/87 "2026-03-13T02:40:59Z")
I expect Trump will try more “shock and awe” to get Iran to back down. I also expect it to not work. Unless he goes nuclear, which he well might; but that would have its own, very unpredictable consequences. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/88 "2026-03-13T02:41:47Z")
I didn’t view the article since I couldn’t find a text version but if so then it’s literally the stupidest thing about the war so far. Not by itself: it’s conceivable that the US only wished to engage in limited warfare and so wouldn’t target tankers. But compare it to Venezuela, where we were capturing tankers without even being in an acknowledged state of combat with them. You’d think that there would be a better case for Iran than for Venezuela. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/89 "2026-03-13T03:10:42Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Iran is exporting more oil through the Hormuz Strait now than before the war. This is something the US could probably “fix”, if they’d had the wit to plan for it. Denying Iran the use of the strait for at least as long as Iran denies the strait to the rest of the world seems the obvious play, and exactly the kind of thing a first-class navy is designed for. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/90 "2026-03-13T10:26:34Z")
But removing Iranian oil from the market just makes the oil price spiral worse. That’s why Trump removed the sanctions from Russian oil. Trump is more afraid oil prices rising than he is of Iranian missiles. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/91 "2026-03-13T11:22:18Z")
In the meantime, back here in Israel Netanyahu is getting flack from the opposition for not attacking Iranian oil facilities. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/92 "2026-03-13T11:26:46Z")
Well, we can’t have this war getting messy, can we? ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/93 "2026-03-13T12:08:32Z")
It is genuinely mindboggling to take out political leadership, initiate a bombing campaign on this scale, not have a plan for Hormuz and also not have the will to hit their oil and face that economic fallout. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/94 "2026-03-13T12:09:13Z")
Maybe we shouldn’t be starting a war with no mission, no plan, and idiots in charge? ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/95 "2026-03-13T12:12:32Z")
Oh of course not. It’s still probably (maybe) better to have this shooting war than fully commit all things considered. But its insane what Israel and the US think they’re going to get out of it with moddling it the way they have. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/96 "2026-03-13T12:14:04Z")
Yes, fully committing (assuming you mean ground invasion) would be much, much worse. This is already catastrophic and accomplishing pretty much nothing. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/97 "2026-03-13T12:16:18Z")
That or (metaphorically) going nuclear on the global economy. Either way itll just add to the suffering while still not actually achieving any positive. The only benefit to pushing further is the failure might come faster. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/98 "2026-03-13T12:16:30Z")
I don’t either, but may be there’s some way, just contemplating the possibility. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/99 "2026-03-13T12:19:18Z")
But if the Strait gets dangerous with mines that will surely be impacted. Also, while I hadn’t considered it in my response, as **gnoitall** says the U.S. could very easily deny the Straits to Iranian exports to pressure Iran. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2026, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210/100 "2026-03-13T12:36:56Z")
I think the big winner is China, who clearly will be able to establish more control and ultimately take Taiwan. Also, their development of electric vehicles and solar tech will serve the energy needs of the 21st century. Russia is a short term winner with its energy sector wins. Oil,and gas to Europe, the easing of sanctions means bad news for Ukraine. America has lost its global hegemony. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-for-and-or-consequences-to-the-us-and-elsewhere-for-engaging-in-the-bombing-of-iran-and-other-targets/1028210.md?page=6)