# Speculation Thread: If No WMD Are Found, What Strategy Will the USA Employ? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 3, 2003, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233 "2003-04-03T16:47:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Desmostylus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@Desmostylus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desmostylus)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2003, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/21 "2003-04-04T12:37:41Z")
A similar story came out a few days ago, **december**. It turned out that the “vials of white powder” were some sort of test kit for the presence of chemical weapons. Big deal. This is just another “Wolf!” call. ---
**Author:** ![FriarTed](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/friarted/32/1052_2.png) [@FriarTed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FriarTed)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2003, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/22 "2003-04-04T14:27:18Z")
if no WMD’s are found, the Bush Administration announces- “Ooops!” or “Well, exCUUUUUUUSE ME!” ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2003, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/23 "2003-04-04T14:36:42Z")
From [MSNBC](http://www.msnbc.com/news/895185.asp?0cv=CA01): > [@](#): > > \*\*[MSNBC.com](http://MSNBC.com) tests reveal evidence of the deadly toxins ricin and botulinum at a laboratory in a remote mountain region of northern Iraq allegedly used as a terrorist training camp by Islamic militants with ties to the al-Qaida terrorist network. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency is conducting its own tests at the same area, but has not yet released the results, according to officials in northern Iraq. \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Alcibiades](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/cab0a1/32.png) [@Alcibiades](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alcibiades)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2003, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/24 "2003-04-04T14:42:26Z")
Another option: [WMDs are at sea.](http://www.thisislondon.com/news/articles/3453118?source=Evening%20Standard) > [@](#): > > Three huge cargo ships feared to be carrying Iraqi weapons of mass destruction are being tracked around the world by British and American intelligence. > > The vessels, which have been at sea for three months, are believed to be carrying weapons smuggled out through Syria or Jordan. Although this story seems to have dropped out of the limelight for some time now… ---
**Author:** ![rsa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/839c29/32.png) [@rsa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rsa)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2003, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/25 "2003-04-04T14:51:10Z")
\*\*Looks like this debate might be academic… \*\* Or not (although I think ultimately we will find something). [Updated AP story.](http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=540&e=11&u=/ap/war_iraq_chemical) > [@](#): > > “Initial reports are that the material is probably just explosives, but we’re still going through the place,” the official said. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2003, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/26 "2003-05-28T19:25:31Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by rsa \* > \*\*Looks like this debate might be academic… \*\* [Apparently not.](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2942978.stm) And the Administration seems to be going with **Option 1** , which I see no one had any money on. Will wonders never cease… ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2003, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/27 "2003-05-28T20:07:06Z")
Well, it is certainly possible that SH had less WMD than we thought. But he did have them, at least at one time. And Blix, and us both asked for prove he had destroyed them. And SH could not do so- which even Blix found fishy. SH kept records on eerything- so where were those records? Dog ate 'em? :dubious: Like I have said before- Saddam had plenty of time after the ultimatum. Thus, he moved some, hid a few, and estroyed the rest. SH was arrogant & maybe crazy. But NOT stupid. He could have though if the war dragged on ah la Stalingrad (which appeared to be his plan) , and the casualties started mounting up- and no WMD’s were found; popular pressure would force Bush to withdraw. And you know, that could have been a very good plan indeed, it could have worked… There have been clues & evidence of WMD, mind you. The empty but wiped clean bio-weapon vans. Possible they were never placed into service? Then why wipe them clean? The Iraqi’s are really not known for being clean in their warfare. True, up to now, there is nothing clear cut, no “smoking gun”. ---
**Author:** ![blowero](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/41988e/32.png) [@blowero](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blowero)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2003, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/28 "2003-05-28T20:26:58Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by jr8 \* > \*\*[Apparently not.](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2942978.stm) And the Administration seems to be going with **Option 1** , which I see no one had any money on. Will wonders never cease… \*\* It’s not really Option 1, though, because they are not admitting they were wrong. The Administration’s tack seems to be "They had the WMDs during the UN inspections, but then they quickly ditched them all when the U.S. invasion was imminent. Seems pretty unlikely. What’s _really_ going on is Option 4 - downplay the WMD angle in favor of the “liberation” angle, coupled with… **Option 5: All’s Well That Ends Well** - We’re better off now that Saddam is gone, so the ends justified the means. And anyone who disagrees is a whiney liberal pinko un-American Saddam-lover. And that Iraqi oil is OURS now, so hands off! ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/29 "2003-05-29T06:46:24Z")
Ah the wonderful dance of lost credibility has started. Now I wonder where our usual suspects are now that our own Rumsfeld has floated the idea. It does rather look like that Financial Times article I cited here about 2 weeks ago was a trial balloon. I believe december questioned its validity. What say you now? ---
**Author:** ![Desmostylus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@Desmostylus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desmostylus)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/30 "2003-05-29T07:12:27Z")
**Option 6: Make up more bullshit** [http://asia.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=2840293](http://asia.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=2840293) > [@](#): > > Wolfowitz said another reason for the invasion had been “almost unnoticed but huge” – namely that the ousting of Saddam would allow the United States to remove its troops from Saudi Arabia, where their presence had long been a major al Qaeda grievance. > > “Just lifting that burden from the Saudis is itself going to open the door” to a more peaceful Middle East, Wolfowitz was quoted as saying. > > The magazine said he made the remarks days before suicide bombings, attributed to al Qaeda, against Western targets in Riyadh and Casablanca two weeks ago that killed 75 people. ---
**Author:** ![sezyou](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b77776/32.png) [@sezyou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sezyou)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 7:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/31 "2003-05-29T07:26:03Z")
Have we had enough yet? Probably not. Stand up and say “Bush, you lied”. If I grasp at straws in my world I get shouted down real quick. If the Bushistas do it, it is for the “War On Terrorism”. Call as spade a spade. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/32 "2003-05-29T08:10:26Z")
He didn’t lie. Of that we can be certain. Everyone, even those who opposed the war, thought Saddam had WMD. And we didn’t believe it on Bush’s say-so. We believed it on the say-so of years of inspections, Bill Clinton, the heads of the Senate Intelligence Committees, the British government, the French government, independent military analysts… If Iraq did in fact destroy their weapons, Bush is very unlikely to have known about it. And it raises the question of why Saddam refused to fully cooperate with the inspectors and provide proof of their destruction. ---
**Author:** ![Spiny\_Norman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@Spiny\_Norman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiny_Norman)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/33 "2003-05-29T10:11:43Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by adaher \* > \*\*He didn’t lie. Of that we can be certain. \*\* Yeah, the presidant wouldn’t lie, would he ? “There are no war plans on my desk” sound familiar ? (They were in the filing cabinet, I’m sure…) As for WMD, I’m sure that Bush wrapped it up in proper politico-speak so that he wasn’t technically telling an untruth. Nonetheless, it seems safe to say that he was either trying to deceive or at least seriously overstating the case. As for Wolfowitz: He argued before the war that Iraq’s WMD were enough of a threat to justify an invasion. Now WMD is a “bureaucratic reason”. Either he was telling the truth about the motives then or he is now, but both can’t be true. > [@](#): > > **Everyone, even those who opposed the war, thought Saddam had WMD. And we didn’t believe it on Bush’s say-so. We believed it on the say-so of years of inspections, Bill Clinton, the heads of the Senate Intelligence Committees, the British government, the French government, independent military analysts…** Yup, even a notorious war opponent like me is still half expecting something to show up. (Not the hundreds of tons that we were led to believe. I would have thought that some theatre defense weapons would appear. I’m pretty damn surprised that there’s not even a single shell…) Anyway, the central pre-war issue was whether the Iraqi WMD constituted a threat severe enough that the US was justified in flipping the UN the bird and attack preemptively. A lot of the people who were against the war said that no, there was no evidence of a serious threat. And it’s beginning to look like they were right, no ? ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/34 "2003-05-29T10:12:16Z")
> [@](#): > > We believed it on the say-so of the British Government …who only wanted a “[sexy document](http://politics.guardian.co.uk/iraq/story/0,12956,966208,00.html)”, if there is such a thing. ---
**Author:** ![system](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/original/2X/e/e489c3b7d8fce19c4b355dd4fc3f88cc39c34b87.png) [@system](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/system)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 10:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/35 "2003-05-29T10:37:57Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Spiny Norman \* > Yeah, the presidant wouldn’t lie, would he ? “There are no war plans on my desk” sound familiar ? (They were in the filing cabinet, I’m sure…) I direct interested readers to reporting in the Financial Times on this matter and US efforts to split Europe. FT 27 May 2003 “The plot that split old and new Europe asunder” by Quentin Peel, James Harding, Judy Dempsey, Gerard Baker and Robert Graham FT 26 May 2003: “US accused of deserting diplomatic path in Iraq” FT 27 May 2003 “US aware of efforts to split Europe over Iraq” In particular 26 May article cites sources as confirming the decision had been taken already by January, with perhaps decision by December 2002, the article notes “The findings imply that the UN diplomatic process was pre-judged. White House officials told the American public up until March that the president had not decided to use force.” Of course december will point out the sources are unnamed, to which I counter in advance so were the FT sources in re the NBC quoted several weeks ago, and that played out precisely. > [@](#): > > Yup, even a notorious war opponent like me is still half expecting something to show up. (Not the hundreds of tons that we were led to believe. I would have thought that some theatre defense weapons would appear. I’m pretty damn surprised that there’s not even a single shell…) Precisely, I expected some theater defence weapons as well, I expect some may in the end be found, Chemical part of NBCs. > [@](#): > > Anyway, the central pre-war issue was whether the Iraqi WMD constituted a threat severe enough that the US was justified in flipping the UN the bird and attack preemptively. A lot of the people who were against the war said that no, there was no evidence of a serious threat. And it’s beginning to look like they were right, no ? Remember the Maine… ---
**Author:** ![Futile\_Gesture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/f05b48/32.png) [@Futile\_Gesture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Futile_Gesture)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/36 "2003-05-29T10:46:27Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Princhester \* > \*\*If Bush doesn’t otherwise stuff up, he will be re-elected as a strong leader who won a war (everyone likes a winner etc). Whether he should have fought the war will be forgotten. \*\* You have a touching faith in the US population attention span and their ability to live in denial. Unfortunately the rest of the world may not be quite so obliging. But we don’t care about them, do we? ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/37 "2003-05-29T10:52:41Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Collounsbury \* > \*\*Remember the Maine… \*\* Funny you should say that - the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 had a couple of historians on to talk about, among other things, significant dates in history, and the sinking of the Maine was cited as one possible date of the beginning of (what they loosely described as) the “American Empire” (and before anyone gets persnickety, this was in comparison to the British, Roman and Ottoman Empires so the caveats were taken as read). Speaking of the Today programme, I also enjoyed John Humphreys making interviewees squirm about the use of cluster bombs in built-up areas. (You can hear the whole story [here](http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/listen/listen.shtml)). ---
**Author:** ![Futile\_Gesture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/f05b48/32.png) [@Futile\_Gesture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Futile_Gesture)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/38 "2003-05-29T11:16:46Z")
> [@](#): > > _Originally posted by RickJay \* > \*\* > **Option 4: The Big Lie** - The administration could simply start saying that the war was about “liberating Iraq” all along, was never about WMDs, and would just stop talking about WMDs entirely, and change the subject whenever it came up._\* This is not an option. Changing the administration in another country by military force just because, in your opinion, it’s not nice is **illegal**. This is why Bush had to talk up the WMD story in the first place. Those weapons made Iraq in breach of his interpretation of UN resolutions. Without this justification all he had was “Saddam’s a maniac”, which is undoubtedly true but not enough in international law to permit you to invade someone else’s country. If Bush did pick option 4 he would be officially making the US a rogue nation that invades others just because they don’t conform to their opinions of what’s right and proper. He would be making the US the self-proclaimed World Cop and the sole definers and defenders of justice. Personally I think he’ll go with laying on another few layers of BS to try and confuse the issue and then hope people will stop asking about it. Which isn’t going to happen. But then, he never thought much through in his little escapade beyond the oil-fields. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/39 "2003-05-29T11:33:43Z")
Because we thought the regime wasn’t nice? I’ve heard that said before and it’s rather strange. I think we can all agree that Hussein was more than just “not nice” and that his overthrow was a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![yojimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yojimbo/32/232_2.png) [@yojimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yojimbo)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2003, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233/40 "2003-05-29T12:14:28Z")
Doesn’t make it any more legal **adaher**. You don’t like a law get it changed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/speculation-thread-if-no-wmd-are-found-what-strategy-will-the-usa-employ/166233.md?page=3)