# Splitting the Difference--Dead Thread for The Split

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/splitting-the-difference-dead-thread-for-the-split/486357>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [February 18, 2009, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/splitting-the-difference-dead-thread-for-the-split/486357 "2009-02-18T03:10:03Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 273

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**Author:** ![Telcontar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3bc359/32.png) [@Telcontar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telcontar)\
**Post date:** [April 5, 2009, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/splitting-the-difference-dead-thread-for-the-split/486357/273 "2009-04-05T17:41:13Z")

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> [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](#):
>
> That’s an interesting and fairly complete theory of the game. That isn’t quite where I thought you were coming from.
> 
> Really. Very interesting.

I mean, I could be wrong, and you’d certainly be the one to know if i was, but I was very serious about:

[QUOTE=Telcontar;10973015T]  
**Jimmy** has bugged me for a few days and I have this paranoid fantasy in which both he and **mhaye** are wolves. I’m impatient and I want to find out if i’m right.  
[/QUOTE]

> [@Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split \[Signups--In progress\]](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1479):
>
> **mahaloth** is also pseudo confirmed innocent.
> 
> I want to kill primarily because 1.) I don’t think it hurts the villagers as a whole 2.) anything that helps end the game earlier helps my faction 3.) we’re a fragging lynch mob, killing people is what we do.
> 
> Anyway, in the even that i’m not around tomorrow i have really good feelings about \*\*rex \*\*and **oredigger77** , and I trust the test results of **mahaloth**. That means that, from my perspective, dawn tomorrow would see
> 
> Innocent:  
> **Mahaloth  
> Oredigger77  
> Rexnervous**
> 
> Potentially guilty:  
> **Allwalker  
> [Undecided] Adrian the II  
> Jimmy Chitwood  
> MHaye**
> 
> If I’m right about **oredigger77** and\*\* rexnervous\*\* (and people agree i’m right) the game is trivial. Test 1. If not guilty, lynch 2. Next day: test 3, if not guilty lynch 4.
> 
> Why **Mhaye** is less innocent than **Oredigger77** and **Rex** :  
> Looking at the voting around the death of **EH** , I noticed that **Mhaye** was happy to vote for me, but didn’t want to tie it. He said this right before the vote and was definitely around to break any future ties that developed. The aversion to ties makes jack sense, but I’m willing to pass on that per se. Had **EH** switched his vote twenty minutes earlier (perfectly sensible defensive voting) then mhaye could have swept in and broken the new tie (justifying it by his aversion to ties). **EH** lives, I die, wolves are in a much better position. It would also reframe the **mhaye** - **justin** standoff as wolf wolf, which explains why\*\* justin\*\* was so willing to die and makes\*\* mhaye’\*\*s testerizer analysis look like a bold wolf play. **Jimmy** broke the \*\*mhaye-justin \*\*tie near the end, which would count in his favor, but only if **mhaye** wasn’t also a wolf.
> 
> Anyway, i’d say test **jimmy** tomorrow. if he’s a wolf deal with him and then take a hard look at **mhaye** for the next day.

> [@Werewolf (Mafia)--The Split \[Signups--In progress\]](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/werewolf-mafia-the-split-signups-in-progress/485692/1521):
>
> If Jimmy is a wolf we should test MHaye next, for reasons that should be fairly clear.

Anyway, town has a very clear path to victory if the testerizer is correctly solved regardless of whether I’m right. Only advantages to being right today are speed and guaranteed tie. If we wait until tomorrow to be right then there is a 33% chance of a random faction winning outright.

I suppose adriann would be my next suspicion, but that’s primarily due to lack of better options.

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