# Sports that grade you based on what "should have happened" **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [March 9, 2021, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531 "2021-03-09T14:46:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/21 "2021-03-10T00:57:24Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > > [@k9bfriender](#): > > > > If they toss a fly ball to the outfield, they did not perform well. The fact that the outfielder missed it doesn’t improve _their_ performance any. > > What if I did it _because_ I knew the sun would be in the outfielder’s eyes and that particular outfielder was known fumble the ball or lose it in the sun more often than others? - If you can control the bat that well at the MLB level, you wouldn’t need to. 😉 > **[The Kid Who Batted 1.000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Kid_Who_Batted_1.000)** > > The Kid Who Batted 1.000 is the name of two separate books, both juvenile baseball novels. The key plot device – the advent of a young batsman who is able to achieve a walk (base on balls) at every plate appearance – is identical in both novels. > "1.000" is a perfect baseball batting average – a hit for every at bat – and by convention is pronounced "a thousand" rather than "one point oh", so the title of the books is generally spoken as "The kid who batted a thousand". Achieving a base on balls ... ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/22 "2021-03-10T01:02:30Z")
In the NFL they have a stat called completion probability. > **[Next Gen Stats: Introduction to Completion Probability](https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-introduction-to-completion-probability-0ap3000000964655)** > > Next Gen Stats' new metric for the 2018 season, Completion Probability, seeks to improve on the limitations of raw box score statistics and is intended to contextualize passing and receiving performance. You’ll often see it mentioned during football games where a really impressive catch is made. The entire stat is based on whether or not the receiver should be able to catch the ball. So this seems to fit the OP’s request. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/23 "2021-03-10T01:05:27Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > In the NFL they have a stat called completion probability. > > [Next Gen Stats: Introduction to Completion Probability](https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-introduction-to-completion-probability-0ap3000000964655) > > You’ll often see it mentioned during football games where a really impressive catch is made. The entire stat is based on whether or not the receiver should be able to catch the ball. So this seems to fit the OP’s request. There’s a similar system for MLB. Route efficiency and catch probability for outfielders (if I’m remembering it correctly). ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/24 "2021-03-10T01:22:31Z")
A distinction between the OP and the case for DLS in cricket is that while DLS has an impact on the game result, there is no impact on individual player stats. ---
**Author:** ![Kimble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kimble/32/19185_2.png) [@Kimble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimble)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/25 "2021-03-10T01:26:53Z")
In addition to the NFL examples above, hockey and soccer both have the concept of expected goals. [Here’s a writeup of one specific version for soccer](https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/); depending on how many variables you use, you can get significantly different results (the link above mentions a goal that can range from 0.5 to 0.97 xG because the shooter’s the only player from either side in the penalty area and other models might only consider where the ball was shot from). Of course, neither of those are “official” stats. ---
**Author:** ![TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thegunismightierthanthepen/32/2981_2.png) [@TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheGunIsMightierThanThePen)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/26 "2021-03-10T02:04:13Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > I think the goaltending call in basketball is like this. In [goaltending](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goaltending) a team is awarded two (or three) points they didn’t actually score. These are given by a referee when in his/her opinion a defender interfered with a shot in a certain way. Similarly, in ice hockey a goal is [automatically awarded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Awarded_goal) in empty net situations, when the team with the extra attacker commits a penalty in the attempt of preventing the other team from scoring on the empty net. ---
**Author:** ![blabbermeister](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9a140/32.png) [@blabbermeister](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blabbermeister)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/27 "2021-03-10T03:49:45Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > In the NFL they have a stat called completion probability. Thanks! I don’t watch football much but I would find this interesting to hear about during games. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/28 "2021-03-10T03:51:33Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > No, reaching base on an error is actually counted as an out for both batting average and on base percentage. Also a dropped third strike (with a runner on first base, or no runner on first but two outs) is counted as both a strikeout for the pitcher and batsman. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/29 "2021-03-10T04:18:02Z")
I can think of a couple situations in curling that might apply. In large tournaments, spotters evaluate what shot a team is trying to play, and compare the actual result. Curlers have a percentage indicating how well they are performing. However, there are occasions where a team will deliberately throw a stone the length of the sheet and essentially waste the shot. Those don’t count for the players’ percentages. When sweeping, your broom is not allowed to touch the stone. If it does, the stone is stopped and that shot is forfeited. However, if it happens after the hog line, the players are supposed to let the stone keep going. Then the other team has an option; they can let the result of the shot stand as is, return the stones to where they were before the shot, or they can place the stones where they think they would have ended up if the illegal touch hadn’t happened. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/30 "2021-03-10T20:20:59Z")
Par in golf is pretty much the definition of an expected outcome. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/31 "2021-03-10T20:24:40Z")
There’s a big one. The whole game is based on expected outcome, the expected outcome of pros playing golf. Pretty high standard to work for. And welcome back. ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/32 "2021-03-10T20:28:46Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Another example… billiards. I don’t know what the pro term for this is, but occasionally somebody will declare “no shit shots”, meaning if you sink a ball other than the one you called, then you don’t get the bonus shot. Wait-- isn’t billiards the one with the bank shots, where you have to contact certain balls in a certain order? Pool is the one where you want to sink shots. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/33 "2021-03-10T20:59:59Z")
Are you concerned with how statistics are kept, or actual in-game results. I’ve been approaching this with respect to officials seeing what happened, what should have happened, and adjusting the results of the play accordingly. Goaltending in basketball, catcher interference in baseball, defensive pass interference in football; they all rely on the officials seeing what happened and changing the result based on what “should have happened” had it not been a penalty. Interference calls in horse racing, speed skating, cycling, etc. all require the officials to determine what “should have” happened and adjust the results accordingly. A player’s batting average as a result of a walk, HBP, or error doesn’t seem to be the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/34 "2021-03-10T23:46:14Z")
I agree there’s a distinction. All of the former are examples of ensuring that cheating is not advantageous to the cheater. Which is not only a good thing but an _essential_ thing if the rules are to have any meaning at all. The OP seems more interested in individual stats that in effect assume typical highly skilled play by the opposing team, even on those occasions the opposing team goofs or cheats. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2021, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/35 "2021-03-10T23:58:26Z")
Pool, Snooker, and the games without pockets are all forms of billiards. Some versions like 3-Carom Billiards which doesn’t have pockets have ‘billiards’ in the name. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/36 "2021-03-11T00:10:38Z")
I guess the concept of an own goal would be relevant for this. When Steve Smith famously caromed the puck into his own net in the NHL playoffs, the goal was credited to Perry Berezan, who had been the last opposing player to touch it. An equivalent soccer play would go down as an own goal, reflecting that no offensive player was directly responsible for it. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/37 "2021-03-11T00:33:16Z")
Doesn’t football make a distinction between incomplete passes that were aimed at a receiver, but not caught, and throws made to nowhere in particular, with no intended receiver? And unlike the example of baseball errors, that’s a distinction that can have an effect on who wins the game. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/38 "2021-03-11T00:43:43Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Doesn’t football make a distinction between incomplete passes that were aimed at a receiver, but not caught, and throws made to nowhere in particular, with no intended receiver? Not in the commonly-used stats. Throwing the ball away, a pass that sails over a receiver’s head (but was clearly targeted at him), and a pass that bounces off of a receiver’s hands, all look exactly the same in the stat sheet: the quarterback is charged with an incomplete pass. There may well be some manner of advanced stat which differentiates between those, but it’s not something you see in the standard stats, and it’s not something I remember seeing. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/39 "2021-03-11T02:18:07Z")
Whether or not a receiver is in the area where the ball is thrown does matter in the NFL if you are determining whether there is an intentional grounding penalty against the quarterback. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2021, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531/40 "2021-03-11T02:29:59Z")
And any pass that turns out to be a foul won’t count in passing stats. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/sports-that-grade-you-based-on-what-should-have-happened/937531.md?page=3)