# Starship development and progress \[previous title: Will Musk's starship reach orbit this year?\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** elon-musk\ **Created:** [July 7, 2022, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583 "2022-07-07T22:05:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 22
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2023, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/421 "2023-09-08T20:57:41Z")
Yeah, 63 is a surprisingly small number. And some of those are just procedural, apparently. SpaceX says they’ve made over 1000 improvements to the new booster. Interestingly, SpaceX [led the investigation](https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1700149076400951476), with the FAA acting as observer: > The FAA oversaw the SpaceX-led investigation to ensure the company complied with its FAA-approved mishap plan and other regulatory requirements. > > The FAA was involved in every step of the mishap investigation and granted NASA and the National Transportation Safety Board official observer status. > > The mishap investigation report contains proprietary data and U.S Export Control information and is not available for public release. Perfectly fine as long as the FAA stays impartial. Don’t want another 737MAX situation, though. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2023, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/422 "2023-09-10T18:20:03Z")
Musk posted the list of 63 actions: [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5pq9CsWgAA7T5V?format=jpg&name=large) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5pq9CsWgAA7T5V?format=jpg&name=large) [![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5pq9CtXcAAvRWO?format=jpg&name=large) ](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5pq9CtXcAAvRWO?format=jpg&name=large) Turns out that only 57 are needed for the next flight, while another 6 are for some future flight. These are all very high-level descriptions, of course, like “redesign of launch pad deck”, but still interesting to read through. I’m not sure if they’re specified in more detail elsewhere, or if it’s up to SpaceX discretion. So presumably, it is now a matter of SpaceX convincing the FAA that they’ve finished the list, and then the FAA actually finishing the process on their end. Hopefully fairly quick. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2023, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/423 "2023-09-11T16:21:25Z")
I wonder if the FAA go in and check compliance or if SpaceX just sign a bit of paper to swear they’ve done it? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2023, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/424 "2023-09-11T18:10:25Z")
Typically the FAA will approve a pile of paperwork showing the SpaceX engineers did their homework on what was changed. And the Feds of course retain the right to go see if the new hardware matches the new paperwork. How much they actually clamber around looking at factories and and installed hardware I cannot say. But I can predict how much shit there’d be if the Feds found widespread intent to pencil-whip the changes. Ask Boeing how well that’s going for them. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2023, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/425 "2023-09-13T23:40:40Z")
Sounds like mid-October: > **[US could advance SpaceX license as soon as October after rocket exploded in...](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/faa-could-advance-spacex-starship-license-soon-october-2023-09-13/?utm_source=reddit.com)** > > The acting head of the Federal Aviation Administration said on Wednesday the agency could advance a launch license as early as next month for the SpaceX Starship rocket after a prior one exploded following a test launch in April. > “We’re working well with them and have been in good discussions. Teams are working together and I think we’re optimistic sometime next month,” acting FAA Administrator Polly Trottenberg told reporters on the sidelines of a conference. Not great, not terrible. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2023, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/426 "2023-09-22T15:01:40Z")
Perhaps another bureaucratic delay. This time, not FAA. [https://www.chron.com/culture/article/spacex-starship-boca-chica-18378307.php](https://www.chron.com/culture/article/spacex-starship-boca-chica-18378307.php) The US Fish and Wildlife Service has to complete an environmental assessment of SpaceX’s environmental impact mitigation measures (like the deluge system) from an endangered species and clean water perspective. Apparently, this assessment can require between 30 and 135 days and allegedly hasn’t started yet. ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2023, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/427 "2023-09-22T15:28:10Z")
D D Harriman would not have put up with this bullshit, dammit! ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2023, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/428 "2023-09-22T18:14:17Z")
There will be blood. ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2023, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/429 "2023-09-22T20:15:23Z")
Undoubtedly. But whose, and where? I hadn’t heard of that movie; guess I’ll have to find & watch it! Meanwhile, I’m waiting for the spindizzy to be invented by some left-field genius in Latvia or somewhere using a couple of tin cans and bits of an old TV set. Quantum gravity? No, you’re looking at it all wrong… just wind the coil THIS way and use uranium instead of iron for the armature… ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2023, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/430 "2023-09-22T20:25:13Z")
Musk has flamethrowers. But the US Fish and Wildlife Service has flamethrower boats: > I think F&W win this one. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2023, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/431 "2023-09-22T22:41:55Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > But the US Fish and Wildlife Service has flamethrower boats: > **[https://i.redd.it/y5641gfqufp41.jpg](https://i.redd.it/y5641gfqufp41.jpg)** ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2023, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/432 "2023-09-23T00:43:40Z")
If this delays Starship too long, Musk should announce that Fish and Game is putting the Artemis program at risk. Starship HLS has to be ready in just two or three years. That’s already a stretch, but a four month delay or more for bureaucracy is crazy. They already did the environmental assessment. I can’t believe it would take 30-135 days to check if a water deluge system might affect the environment in an area that receives torrential rain on a regular basis. At the very least they should issue a flight permit and THEN do the analysis of the effect of regular flights while SpaceX preps for the next one. They could examine the aftermath of this flight to inform their decision. Maybe if Artemis is at risk someone in the government will get their head out of their ass and move this along. ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2023, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/433 "2023-09-23T14:51:47Z")
If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would be starting to suspect that there is some well-organized group behind the scenes that has an interest in stopping Starship. Did SpaceX have to wade through this level of regulatory nonsense when they were developing Falcon? I must admit I can’t remember… ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2023, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/434 "2023-09-23T16:52:11Z")
> [@gnoitall](#): > > The US Fish and Wildlife Service has to complete an environmental assessment of SpaceX’s environmental impact mitigation measures (like the deluge system) from an endangered species and clean water perspective. > > Apparently, this assessment can require between 30 and 135 days and allegedly hasn’t started yet. You would think that someone as smart as Musk and with as much experience as Musk would have seen this coming back when he started planning for the new equipment and worked with all the regulators to get things started. You know, like any normal company. OTOH, this gives SpaceX 3 months more to work on their system AND someone else to pin the delays on. So there is that. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2023, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/435 "2023-09-23T16:59:55Z")
> [@rbroome](#): > > You would think that someone as smart as Musk and with as much experience as Musk would have seen this coming Musk is immune to bureaucratic interference. Until he discovers he isn’t. Every time. It’s like a particularly stupid toddler who refuses to believe the stove will burn them again _this time_. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2023, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/436 "2023-09-23T17:12:29Z")
> [@rbroome](#): > > You would think that someone as smart as Musk and with as much experience as Musk would have seen this coming back when he started planning for the new equipment and worked with all the regulators to get things started Yeah. I am not a Musk hater by any means, and I think SpaceX is doing awesome things, but I don’t see how you can lay the blame for not meeting basic environmental requirements on anyone other than SpaceX. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2023, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/437 "2023-09-23T17:15:24Z")
I would say to those conspiracy theorists that there is not a very good record from rich guys that demand the dismissal of regulations when making their cutting edge creations. > **[Who is Stockton Rush? The OceanGate CEO killed in Titanic tourist submarine](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/stockton-rush-oceangate-expeditions-ceo-b2365633.html)** > > Princeton graduate and Titan submarine entrepreneur insisted Atlantic dives were not dangerous and once said: ‘At some point, safety just is pure waste. If you just want to be safe, don’t get out of bed’ ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2023, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/438 "2023-09-23T18:18:55Z")
Musk has not called for the end of any significant regulations. In fact he’s said recently that there are no Federal agencies he’d like to see the end of, and that the FAA is only rarely a bottleneck in their current operations. Though I do remember a time when they had to delay a test launch because the FAA couldn’t get a person on site on the day they promised–like the guy missed his flight or something. He _has_ regularly complained about the speed at which these agencies operate, which I don’t think is completely unwarranted. 135 days to perform an environmental review of a water deluge system seems a little ridiculous. They aren’t discharging some toxic waste stream. It’s less water than you’d get in an ordinary rainfall. He has also said repeatedly that the current FAA framework for launch isn’t compatible with a space-based economy. This isn’t a call for ending all regulation–just make it work more like their airplane operations. The FAA safely handles thousands of plane flights a day. But the current setup doesn’t support even a single rocket launch a day. SpaceX wants to fly many times a day. The Falcon 9 is the safest rocket in the business. They haven’t had a failure in the last 230 flights, and have _landed_ their rocket more times in a row than any of their current competition has _launched_ in a row. That’s not due to adherence to regulation; the FAA doesn’t care if your rocket has a 10% failure rate if you do the right paperwork. But they do recognize that a reliable rocket is also a more competitive one. They have the lowest insurance rates around. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2023, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/439 "2023-09-23T18:58:25Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > The Falcon 9 is the safest rocket in the business. They haven’t had a failure in the last 230 flights, and have _landed_ their rocket more times in a row than any of their current competition has _launched_ in a row. That’s not due to adherence to regulation Uh… > **[ea\_fonsi\_f9\_boostback\_vafb.pdf](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/licenses_permits/media/ea_fonsi_f9_boostback_vafb.pdf)** In essence, I was replying to the conspiracy theorists (and I would not trust that Elon is not falling for that nowadays), not the previous poster. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2023, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/440 "2023-09-23T19:22:58Z")
I’m saying that their high degree of reliability is not due to regulation. The F9 is of course subject to all kinds of regulation. But the reason they have \>99.5% reliability instead of 90% is not because of conditions the FAA or anyone imposed on them. The FAA mainly cares about impacts to human life. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=21) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=23)