# Starship development and progress \[previous title: Will Musk's starship reach orbit this year?\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** elon-musk\ **Created:** [July 7, 2022, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583 "2022-07-07T22:05:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2023, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/521 "2023-11-04T01:04:01Z")
Some new information at [spacex.com](http://spacex.com). No great revelations, but we have a nice infographic of the launch: [https://i.imgur.com/63k36Ci.png](https://i.imgur.com/63k36Ci.png) And two timelines: Countdown: | **HR/MIN/SEC** | **EVENT** | | --- | --- | | 02:00:00 | SpaceX Flight Director conducts poll and verifies GO for propellant load | | 01:37:00 | Booster LOX (liquid oxygen) load underway | | 01:37:00 | Booster fuel load (liquid methane) underway | | 01:17:00 | Ship fuel load (liquid methane) underway | | 01:13:00 | Ship LOX load underway | | 00:19:40 | Raptor begins engine chill on booster and ship | | 00:00:10 | Flame deflector activation | | 00:00:03 | Raptor ignition sequence begins | | 00:00:00 | Excitement guaranteed | Launch: | HR/MIN/SEC | EVENT (IF ALL GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN) | | --- | --- | | 00:00:02 | Liftoff | | 00:00:52 | Max Q (moment of peak mechanical stress on the rocket) | | 00:02:39 | Booster MECO (most engines cut off) | | 00:02:41 | Hot-staging (Starship Raptor ignition and stage separation) | | 00:02:53 | Booster boostback burn startup | | 00:03:47 | Booster boostback burn shutdown | | 00:06:18 | Booster is transonic | | 00:06:30 | Booster landing burn startup | | 00:06:48 | Booster landing burn shutdown | | 00:08:33 | Starship engine cutoff | | 01:17:21 | Starship entry | | 01:28:43 | Starship is transonic | | 01:30:00 | An exciting landing! | ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2023, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/522 "2023-11-04T17:48:36Z")
And specifically that > **SpaceX announced on Friday that the company is targeting “mid-November” for the second flight test of the Super Heavy rocket and its Starship upper stage.** > > The company said the launch date is pending regulatory approval, which means that the Federal Aviation Administration and US Fish and Wildlife Service have yet to complete the environmental review process for the rocket and its launch site, which is surrounded by wetlands in South Texas. > **[It’s almost showtime for SpaceX’s massive Starship rocket](https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/11/its-almost-showtime-for-spacexs-massive-starship-rocket/)** > > SpaceX will again target a morning liftoff for the rocket. ---
**Author:** ![md-2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@md-2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md-2000)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2023, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/523 "2023-11-04T17:57:32Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > 00:02:39 Booster MECO (most engines cut off) Shouldn’t that be RICO - those Remaining Ignited will Cut Off. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2023, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/524 "2023-11-04T19:17:59Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > 00:00:00 Excitement guaranteed I like the sentiment, there. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2023, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/525 "2023-11-04T19:41:20Z")
Likewise the > [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Launch: > > | HR/MIN/SEC | EVENT (IF ALL GOES ACCORDING TO PLAN) | > | --- | --- | > | 00:00:02 | Liftoff | The “If all goes according to plan” is a great touch. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2023, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/526 "2023-11-04T19:51:07Z")
It’s also smart. Setting expectations low is important when you are essentially carrying out integration tests in a potentially explodey way and the eyes of the world (and regulators) are watching. If the thing blows up you want to be able to say, “Yeah, we knew that was a possible outcome, and planned for it.” ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2023, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/527 "2023-11-04T19:53:19Z")
Especially if it’s true that you really did plan for the possibility of failure. Which SpaceX has consistently been doing. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2023, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/528 "2023-11-04T22:21:43Z")
> [@md-2000](#): > > Shouldn’t that be RICO - those Remaining Ignited will Cut Off Not quite! “Most” is correct here. Because they’re hot staging, the center three engines on the booster do not cut off. The Starship starts up and pulls away, despite the remaining thrust from the booster, and as soon as it’s clear, the booster does a quick flip (using thrust vectoring) and starts boosting back. The booster landing ends up being a bit more efficient, which means they can do the staging later, which means more delta-V available for the upper stage. Still–you’re right that I’m not expecting all 33 engines to be still functioning at that point. Hopefully they lose fewer of them than last time, though… ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2023, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/529 "2023-11-10T00:16:49Z")
Hauling explosives for the Flight Termination System: [![](https://i.imgur.com/VaQ0QWT.jpg) ](https://i.imgur.com/VaQ0QWT.jpg) Should make a pretty good boom, if it comes to it. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2023, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/530 "2023-11-10T01:23:37Z")
Those helmets won’t save you. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2023, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/531 "2023-11-10T21:59:02Z")
I feel like there should be a zebra crossing in that picture… ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2023, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/532 "2023-11-10T22:18:48Z")
One of them should be barefooted. The imposter for the guy who is already dead. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2023, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/533 "2023-11-10T22:24:05Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I feel like there should be a zebra crossing in that picture Someone on X [beat you to it](https://twitter.com/geoffdbarrett/status/1722634032666599642?s=46&t=eSS2Inh1EhAIvIgstnYiRA): [![](https://i.imgur.com/nIqrdp4.png) ](https://i.imgur.com/nIqrdp4.png) ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2023, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/534 "2023-11-11T05:04:19Z")
> The second flight test of a fully integrated [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) could launch as soon as early as Friday, November 17, pending final regulatory approval. > > A live webcast of the flight test will begin about 30 minutes before liftoff, which you can watch here and [on X @SpaceX.](https://twitter.com/SpaceX) As is the case with all developmental testing, the schedule is dynamic and likely to change, so be sure to stay tuned to our X account for updates. > > [Starship’s first flight test](https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1662251874936934400) provided numerous lessons learned that directly contributed to [several upgrades](https://www.spacex.com/updates/index.html) to both the vehicle and ground infrastructure to improve the probability of success on future flights. The second flight test will debut a [hot-stage separation system](https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1692610662604702138) and a new electronic Thrust Vector Control (TVC) system for Super Heavy Raptor engines, in addition to reinforcements to the pad foundation and a [water-cooled steel flame deflector](https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1685043032616509440), among many other enhancements. > **[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-2)** > > SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2023, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/535 "2023-11-11T05:37:58Z")
Hard to be sure, but given the expressed level of confidence from SpaceX and other parties, I think there must be some behind-the-scenes knowledge that the Fish & Wildlife approval is basically a done deal and will arrive next week sometime. The Lex Fridman interview with Musk had a few funny moments with regard to the calculations they had to make. Specifically, they had to compute the probability of the craft hitting a shark and/or whale as it came in. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/JN3KPFbWCy8/maxresdefault.jpg "Elon Musk: War, AI, Aliens, Politics, Physics, Video Games, and Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #400") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN3KPFbWCy8&t=4742) The seal with headphones also made an appearance. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2023, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/536 "2023-11-13T12:59:31Z")
Not sure how much of the info in this article is new or recent, but it paints an unflattering picture to be sure. > **[At SpaceX, worker injuries soar in Elon Musk’s rush to Mars](https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/spacex-musk-safety/)** > > Reuters documented more than 600 workplace injuries at SpaceX. Employees say they’re paying the price for Elon Musk’s push to reach Mars at breakneck speed. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2023, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/537 "2023-11-13T13:23:19Z")
From that article: > Musk himself at times appeared cavalier about safety on visits to SpaceX sites: Four employees said he sometimes played with a novelty flamethrower and discouraged workers from wearing safety yellow because he dislikes bright colors. Yep, a man-child with enough money to do whatever he wants. The prosecution rests. 🤨 ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2023, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/538 "2023-11-13T13:58:29Z")
The prosecution seems to be more doing a blind eye than resting. Although maybe they’ve been napping, which is two blind eyes. The fines and penalties should just keep adding up. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2023, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/539 "2023-11-13T20:45:24Z")
Holy crud: > [@](#): > > Through interviews and government records, the news organization documented at least 600 injuries of SpaceX workers since 2014. > > Many were serious or disabling. The records included reports of more than 100 workers suffering cuts or lacerations, 29 with broken bones or dislocations, 17 whose hands or fingers were “crushed,” and nine with head injuries, including one skull fracture, four concussions and one traumatic brain injury. The cases also included five burns, five electrocutions, **eight accidents that led to amputations** , 12 injuries involving multiple unspecified body parts, and seven workers with eye injuries. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2023, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/540 "2023-11-13T21:06:41Z")
Classic use of a reporter using [Simpson’s paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox) in order to mislead the public. It’s entirely possible that SpaceX is safer than their competition, but because the breakdown of what they work on is different, the overall statistics can seem reversed. The article states that Brownsville had an injury rate of 4.8 per 100 worker-years. Cape Canaveral is 0.9 and Redmond is 0.8. “Industry average” is 0.8. Let’s see, what are they doing in Brownsville that isn’t being done elsewhere? Something that might not correspond to an industry average? Oh, right! A huge amount of heavy manufacturing, fabrication, construction, and so on! That isn’t typical at all of aerospace. In fact, mostly they just outsource things like launch tower manufacturing to Bechtel or someone. But SpaceX is doing it themselves. Someone on Reddit dug up the [stats for industries](https://www.bls.gov/iif/nonfatal-injuries-and-illnesses-tables/table-1-injury-and-illness-rates-by-industry-2022-national.htm) that seem more comparable to what SpaceX is doing in Brownsville: 1. Average of all private industries: 2.7 2. Fabricated metal product manufacturing: 3.7 3. Machinery manufacturing: 2.8 4. Motor vehicle manufacturing: 5.9 5. Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing: 5.8 6. Motor vehicle parts manufacturing: 3.1 7. Aircraft manufacturing: 2.5 8. Ship and boat building: 5.6 A 4.8 doesn’t seem like a huge outlier among industries on the heavier end of the manufacturing spectrum. When Boeing’s injuries for the SLS program don’t accrue to them because they had Bechtel manufacture the launch towers, it doesn’t mean the injuries didn’t happen. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=26) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=28)