# Starship development and progress \[previous title: Will Musk's starship reach orbit this year?\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** elon-musk\ **Created:** [July 7, 2022, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583 "2022-07-07T22:05:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2024, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/701 "2024-01-10T03:54:39Z")
Haven’t they established that the booster was terminated by the FTS when the last engine went out, an unrecoverable situation? I think the real question is what caused the raptors to flame out. Inertial damage to the downcomer is a popular theory, or some kind of sloshing issue from the hot staging. Could it even be ullage loss from the vehicle being shaken up by hot staging? As for Starship, I think FTS termination as well is the top candidate. The question is why. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2024, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/702 "2024-01-10T03:56:26Z")
Yeah, I think we have confirmation that the FTS was activated for both stages. We just don’t know why yet. Both stages were showing issues before that point (LOX loss for Starship, Raptor problems for Super Heavy), but the precise cause is unknown. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2024, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/703 "2024-01-10T03:57:41Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > the booster was terminated by the FTS > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > As for Starship, I think FTS termination as well is the top candidate That’s _all_ we’ve heard. The stages blew themselves up. Why? ¯\_(ツ)\_/¯ SpaceX can do better. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2024, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/704 "2024-01-10T04:05:12Z")
Oh, we’ll definitely hear when FAA certification is done. They’ll have to produce a list of problems and mitigations. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 12, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/705 "2024-01-12T23:50:44Z")
I haven’t watched it yet, but Musk delivered a company update with some info: > > > SpaceX @SpaceX Regarding IFT-2 specifically: > "So Flight 2 actually almost made it to orbit. In fact, ironically, if it had a payload, it would have made it to orbit, because the reason that it actually didn’t quite make it to orbit was we vented the liquid oxygen, and the liquid oxygen ultimately led to fire and an explosion. Because we wanted to vent the liquid oxygen because we normally wouldn’t have that liquid oxygen if we had a payload. Some more details in the tweet, and presumably the talk as well. We did see the vending from the IFT-2 videos, as well as a drop in LOX levels, and I think most of us thought it was a bad sign–apparently that was intentional. But it led to a boom which was not intentional. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/706 "2024-01-13T00:06:51Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > We did see the vending from the IFT-2 videos, as well as a drop in LOX levels, and I think most of us thought it was a bad sign–apparently that was intentional In which stage? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/707 "2024-01-13T00:08:46Z")
Upper stage. I’m watching the video now; maybe it’ll have some details about the first stage, but in any case it performed fine in its primary role. Not related to Starship, but apparently they’re qualifying Falcon 9 for 40 flights now. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/708 "2024-01-13T01:21:54Z")
More bits from the presentation: - 100 tons to orbit currently, but path to 200 tons with full resuability - also an upgrade path to 20 M lbs thrust (Saturn V was 7.5 M) - v3 stack will be 140-150 m tall - still looking at point-to-point transport - going to build a second tower in Boca Chica - IFT-3 goal is to reach orbit, perform a deorbit burn, perform header-\>main tank transfer, and demonstrate “Pez dispenser” door for Starlink sats Lots of other details about other projects, too, and a good annual wrapup. Pretty good summary for anyone interested in SpaceX but not really following every launch or news blurb. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/709 "2024-01-13T01:28:54Z")
Oh, and hey, we’ve completed another cycle of the title of the thread going from “maybe” to “probably not” to “definitely not” and back to “probably”! ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/710 "2024-01-13T01:33:46Z")
At least the beginning of each cycle is starting at a higher point each time! ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2024, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/711 "2024-01-13T02:27:04Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > IFT-3 goal is to reach orbit I’ll weep with joy if they just get that first one. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2024, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/712 "2024-01-14T03:47:27Z")
Ahh yes, the joys of “this” year. The gift that just keeps ticking! 😁 ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2024, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/713 "2024-02-02T21:35:05Z")
Three complete boosters, with a fourth partially assembled: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/vjl0rKh.jpeg "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/vjl0rKh) [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/kWyOuep.jpeg "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/kWyOuep) [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/ocHBna9.jpeg "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/ocHBna9) They need to fly some of these just to get rid of them. No FAA report yet, though that was previously rumored to come out sometime in February, and it’s still early. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2024, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/714 "2024-02-02T22:09:39Z")
This is what Musk calls ‘Hardware rich’ development. For iterative development, it’s the way to go. Try not to let your iterations be slowed down because of hardware construction time. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2024, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/715 "2024-02-02T22:10:04Z")
A flight without any mishaps will presumably speed up receipt of the licence for the following flight. So here’s hoping the next flight goes to plan. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/716 "2024-02-03T02:05:43Z")
I just wish the FAA had some means of giving tentative flight approval based solely on a safety evaluation. A long evaluation period made sense after the first flight, given the obvious safety/environmental impact and the failure of the flight termination system. And it makes sense for the FAA to perform a full analysis of the second flight at some point. But it should be possible for them to license a new flight without waiting for a full report, since there was no substantive safety concern with the second flight. The approval process just isn’t designed for a rapid iteration rate. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/717 "2024-02-03T02:11:30Z")
Should I be disturbed that those pix of the SpaceX factory remind me strongly of various scenes in the Star Wars movies where Luke & Darth are battling in some ginormous unimaginably tall space full of shiny stuff? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/718 "2024-02-03T02:18:34Z")
This is the sci-fi future we were promised, and never got. The last photo especially reminded me of the game _Homeworld_, with these huge construction bays that capital ships eventually drift out of once complete. The lighting just needs to be a bit more blue: [![](https://cpyellow165.weebly.com/uploads/1/2/6/6/126698586/938845549.jpg) ](https://cpyellow165.weebly.com/uploads/1/2/6/6/126698586/938845549.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/719 "2024-02-03T02:19:49Z")
Are they making changes to the hot staging design, considering the booster kinda blew up? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/720 "2024-02-03T02:25:07Z")
Not that I’m aware of. The booster failure didn’t seem to directly have anything to do with hot staging (i.e., the rocket exhaust impinging on it). IMO, it’ll basically end up being a software fix. Tweak the throttling of the booster and ship, the way the booster engines relight, the rotation rate, etc. But we don’t really know anything about why it failed. Internal damage due to water hammer effects seems like the best bet currently, but who knows. If so, then it might warrant some new hardware, like some kind of fluid shock absorber system. But again, maybe just software is sufficient. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=37)