# Starship development and progress \[previous title: Will Musk's starship reach orbit this year?\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** elon-musk\ **Created:** [July 7, 2022, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583 "2022-07-07T22:05:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 54
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1061 "2024-10-09T15:10:37Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > seeking to establish that private launch must obtain permission for its existence within an ultra-strict regulatory environment. They’ve long ago established _exactly_ that regime for every aircraft manufacturer, every aircraft engine manufacturer, every aircraft part manufacturer, and every single aviation business that uses aircraft to do whatever they do. Airline, firefighting, pipeline patrol, etc. 100% of the entire field of endeavor called “US aviation” exists solely at the behest of the FAA. Commercial space is no different. And should be no different. Your politics (and naivete) is showing. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1062 "2024-10-09T20:20:37Z")
I knew it! [![](https://i.redd.it/seatgblf6qtd1.png) ](https://i.redd.it/seatgblf6qtd1.png) (this is satire, in case it isn’t obvious) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1063 "2024-10-10T01:23:58Z")
Not too much in this article that hasn’t been gone over already, but there was one interesting tidbit: > **[NASA “really looking forward” to next Starship test flight](https://spacenews.com/nasa-really-looking-forward-to-next-starship-test-flight/)** > > As SpaceX prepares for the test flight of its Starship vehicle, NASA is closely watching as it waits for the company to achieve the next milestones on development of the lunar lander version of the… > “We landed with half a centimeter accuracy in the ocean” on the previous flight, he said, “so we think we have a reasonable chance to go back to the tower.” That’s pretty damn accurate! ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1064 "2024-10-10T16:04:51Z")
Yeah, I think what hung up reusable stages for decades was that no one knew how to get sufficient accuracy for landings without having the stages be rocket planes that would glide in to a piloted landing. Now that computation is dirt cheap it can be done automatically. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1065 "2024-10-12T04:39:39Z")
They’re still pretty confident about Sunday: > Be there. 7 am CT. Get your ass out of bed. I have never cheered on a machine so hard as I did with Flight 4. Just incredible to watch in realtime. And I expect Flight 5 to be no different. Gonna be badass whether or not they catch it. ---
**Author:** ![nate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nate/32/13085_2.png) [@nate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nate)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1066 "2024-10-12T06:23:34Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > > “We landed with half a centimeter accuracy in the ocean” on the previous flight, he said, “so we think we have a reasonable chance to go back to the tower.” > > That’s pretty damn accurate! Gerst must mean that they know the position of part of the booster within a cm, not that they hit the target within a cm, which is what I thought at first. That would be almost impossible. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1067 "2024-10-12T18:22:44Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > There’s been some talk in the past about the FAA charging SpaceX for some of the work they perform so that they can pay for more staff. That seems reasonable–SpaceX _is_ using a lot of their resources. And IIRC SpaceX has offered to pay as well. I don’t know if anything has come of that. It seems to me that you’d have to structure that very carefully, so as to not fall afoul of (very good and important) anti-bribery laws. > [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > They’re still pretty confident about Sunday: Confidence is probably good for the stock price, regardless of whether or not it’s justified. So of course they’ll be confident. Worst-case, the stack stands there for longer while they wait for approval. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1068 "2024-10-12T18:40:26Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It seems to me that you’d have to structure that very carefully, so as to not fall afoul of (very good and important) anti-bribery laws. Agreed. But this kind of arrangement already exists for other agencies, most notably the FDA: [https://www.fda.gov/industry/fda-user-fee-programs/fda-user-fees-explained](https://www.fda.gov/industry/fda-user-fee-programs/fda-user-fees-explained) > [@Chronos](#): > > Confidence is probably good for the stock price SpaceX is a private company. They still have an internal “stock price” but they aren’t concerned by day-to-day market reactions. They sell shares to large institutions that care whether Starship flies because it means earning NASA milestone payments and because it affects the economics of Starlink, but they don’t care whether it flies on Sunday or any other particular date. In related news, the FAA has authorized Starship Flight 5: [https://drs.faa.gov/browse/excelExternalWindow/DRSDOCID173891218620231102140506.0001%3FmodalOpened%3Dtrue%3FmodalOpened%3Dtrue?modalOpened=true](https://drs.faa.gov/browse/excelExternalWindow/DRSDOCID173891218620231102140506.0001%3FmodalOpened%3Dtrue%3FmodalOpened%3Dtrue?modalOpened=true) [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/nieRXoG.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/nieRXoG) It’s happening! ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1069 "2024-10-12T18:45:06Z")
> [@nate](#): > > Gerst must mean that they know the position of part of the booster within a cm, not that they hit the target within a cm, which is what I thought at first. That would be almost impossible. Yeah, I wondered about that. Though my thought is that it’s the opposite of what you say: the booster came down to 5 mm of their targeted GPS position, but their GPS position isn’t actually within 5 mm of the real position. GPS can be made more accurate with additional differential ground stations–that’s viable for the actual tower, but not the middle of the ocean. So I dunno. Regardless, it doesn’t have to be _that_ accurate as the tower arms have a lot of play in them. Gonna be exciting! ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1070 "2024-10-12T18:54:01Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > SpaceX is a private company. They still have an internal “stock price” but they aren’t concerned by day-to-day market reactions. Well, OK, then, good for public opinion. They certainly care about that to some degree, even if they don’t literally have a stock price. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1071 "2024-10-12T18:55:13Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It seems to me that you’d have to structure that very carefully, so as to not fall afoul of (very good and important) anti-bribery laws. Huh? There are all kinds of user fees charged by the government. And note anti-bribery laws refer to the payment of money to individuals…, not for government fees. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1072 "2024-10-12T19:02:41Z")
Oh sure, the whole reason for them to make a big deal of the launch is to get the public interested. It’s one of the things they do much better than their competitors. However, in this specific case they clearly knew in advance that FAA approval was coming. We’ve seen this before, where the approval came just days before the scheduled launch. Clearly the two parties work together closely–but it’s more than just that. The FAA must have an accurate idea several days in advance of when they’ll be complete, and tell SpaceX so that they can make preparations. However, it’s still a surprise that the FAA was saying “late November” until fairly recently, and then that got pulled in sharply. Something must have changed. Maybe the Fish & Wildlife consultation came back much earlier than expected. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1073 "2024-10-12T22:52:18Z")
Public Service Announcement: SpaceX does not livestream on YouTube. If you see a livestream that appears to be from SpaceX, _it is a scam_. They will try to sell you crypto or some other bullshit. One current example, but there will be several more as the launch approaches: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/t1JN2AN.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/t1JN2AN) YouTube has proven entirely incapable of dealing with these. In fact they promote them to the top of the search results. There are some legitimate channels that will livestream the launch: Everyday Astronaut, NASASpaceflight, etc. These are fine if you don’t mind the extra commentary and don’t want to use X. But none of them claim to be associated with SpaceX. SpaceX _does_ have a YouTube channel that they occasionally post stuff to (though not livestreams). The channel name is just “SpaceX”. _But this is not the same as the name that appears on the video_. The scam channel above has a name of “@starship5.spacex-us”, but it superficially appears to be SpaceX. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1074 "2024-10-13T02:30:54Z")
I’ll give a shout-out to Spaceflight Now ([https://www.youtube.com/@SpaceflightNowVideo](https://www.youtube.com/@SpaceflightNowVideo)). Good knowledgeable coverage and they appear to be fairly hooked in with SpaceX. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1075 "2024-10-13T11:06:05Z")
Looks like this thing is on target to lift off (fingers crossed). I think we’ll get daylight in time for launch, so it should be spectacular. Me, I’m watching NASA Spaceflight’s YouTube stream as they have really complete coverage and show lots of passion and joy for spaceflight. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1076 "2024-10-13T12:00:15Z")
Livestream has started. Currently set for T-0:25:00. The SpaceX stream: > **[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-5)** > > SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft. And the NASASpaceFlight stream: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/YC87WmFN_As/maxresdefault.jpg "🔴 LIVE: SpaceX Launches Starship for the Fifth Time (and Tries to Catch a Booster)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YC87WmFN_As) Lots of great views! ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1077 "2024-10-13T12:29:49Z")
Amazing launch. And go for tower catch! ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1078 "2024-10-13T12:32:28Z")
They caught it! Holy shit. It was a little burny (still is) and I was a bit worried, but it’s there. Damn. And ship’s in orbit (almost forgot about it… so did the announcers). ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1079 "2024-10-13T12:38:59Z")
I watched on Spaceflight Now – the angle just before catch looked uncomfortably extreme to me, but obviously it was catchable. Brian ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1080 "2024-10-13T12:41:33Z")
It looked like it was swinging pretty hard, but maybe that was intentional? I.e., a last-second slide maneuver to move into place, so if something fails it doesn’t take out the launch mount? But it’s sitting right on the pins, exactly as intended. No post-landing swinging or anything. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=53) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=55)