# Starship development and progress \[previous title: Will Musk's starship reach orbit this year?\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** elon-musk\ **Created:** [July 7, 2022, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583 "2022-07-07T22:05:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 64
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1261 "2025-01-16T18:43:39Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Somebody dug up an image from the payload bay of (probably) flight 4 during reentry: I imagine an interior shot of the _Hindenburg_ would have looked very similar. For a few seconds, then _FOOF!!1!_ ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1262 "2025-01-16T19:39:48Z")
> [@nate](#): > > You gotta think those flap actuators are maybe just a tad above the max operating temperatures. Yeah, can’t imagine they explicitly designed for that! And yet they held up. I suspect that things weren’t _quite_ as bad as they appear, and it was more like a dull red than orange/white hot, but the camera color balance adjustment pushed it to look more white. Not to say it wasn’t hot–but there’s a big difference between 600 C (where stainless retains a lot of strength despite glowing red) vs. 1000+ C. The blur in the shot might be an indication of a long exposure time (i.e., very little light). > [@Lumpy](#): > > The revival of active cooling is presented as an innovation but it’s tacit admission of a setback: Starship isn’t going to be viable with the previous tile technology. Not sure I’d go that far. The improved flap placement will fix a lot. And the new underlayment should help with burn-through on any tiles that decide to go missing. Maybe they’ll still need to use active cooling on top of that… but maybe the current set of fixes will be good enough. In any case, it’s good that they have enough resilience that the heat shield doesn’t have to be _perfect_. Damage is more of an impact to reusability, not safety. > [@LSLGuy](#): > > I imagine an interior shot of the _Hindenburg_ would have looked very similar. For a few seconds, then _FOOF!!1!_ I was very close to just posting “Oh, the humanity!” All those struts really do make it look zeppelin-like. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1263 "2025-01-16T22:39:11Z")
And it’s off! Looking good so far. Looks like there’s some kind of flappy-flap hanging on for dear life on the ship. Dunno what that’s for. ETA: “Most Engines Cut Off” and a good stage separation. ETA2: And another great catch of the booster! Along with some really nice views of it going through the clouds, etc. Man, the visuals are just no comparison with the New Glenn launch. They need to up their game when it comes to the camera work. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1264 "2025-01-16T22:44:31Z")
Pretty nice looking catch. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1265 "2025-01-16T22:48:00Z")
Hmm, looks like something went wrong with the Ship. Telemetry is out. Maybe just a comms issue, but doesn’t look good. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1266 "2025-01-16T23:15:04Z")
Looking like there may have been an onboard fire: > And this is not yet confirmed to be real, but it’s plausibly the ship debris reentering: > ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1267 "2025-01-16T23:24:14Z")
> ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2025, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1268 "2025-01-16T23:27:19Z")
Was just about to post those. Definitely looks like the Flight Termination System triggered. Cause is obviously unknown, but an onboard fire leading to early engine shutdown, trajectory deviation, and then FTS engagement seems plausible. Well, it’s a brand-new design for the upper stage. Too bad, but there were a lot of changes here that could have contributed. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1269 "2025-01-17T00:39:50Z")
Shouldn’t upper stages include a “disaster beacon”, something that can survive an explosive disassembly and transmit long enough to let flight control know that’s the situation? Saddening that we’re back to wondering if a stage will make it at all. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1270 "2025-01-17T01:18:39Z")
If they lose contact, it’s pretty certain something is wrong and the stage can be assumed to be ballistic and/or in pieces at that point. I don’t think it’s very useful for one of those pieces to have extra tracking–they know where it is. I’m sure they have plenty of telemetry up to the point of failure. We saw some of it–those engine shutdowns were abnormal. There’s undoubtedly a wealth of data we haven’t seen. The new Ship is almost an entirely new vehicle. Ringwatchers has a huge 5-part series on all the changes–and those are just the ones that can be inferred via third-party photos: [https://ringwatchers.com/articles](https://ringwatchers.com/articles) Sorta crazy that they’re producing new vehicle versions before previous ones are put into production, but that’s how things go with SpaceX. Falcon 9 1.0 only lasted 5 flights before it got major upgrades. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1271 "2025-01-17T02:08:23Z")
Early update on a possible cause: > > Preliminary indication is that we had an oxygen/fuel leak in the cavity above the ship engine firewall that was large enough to build pressure in excess of the vent capacity. > > Apart from obviously double-checking for leaks, we will add fire suppression to that volume and probably increase vent area. Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1272 "2025-01-17T02:26:44Z")
The region he’s talking about: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/SBBiSCE.jpeg "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/SBBiSCE) The red circle is the hinge that we saw flames coming out of. And the firewall is the horizontal platform thing above the engine nozzles. Some kind of propellant leak + fire occurred in that space. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1273 "2025-01-17T04:31:03Z")
Official update: > **[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-7)** > > SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft. > The first Starship flight test of 2025 flew with ambitious goals: seeking to repeat our previous success of launching and catching the world’s most powerful launch vehicle while putting a redesigned and upgraded Starship through a rigorous set of flight demonstrations. > > It served as a reminder that development testing by definition is unpredictable. > > On its seventh flight test, Starship successfully lifted off from Starbase in Texas at 4:37 p.m. CT on Thursday, January 16. At launch, all 33 Raptor engines powered the Super Heavy booster and Starship on a nominal ascent. Following a successful hot-stage separation, the booster successfully transitioned to its boostback burn, with 12 of the planned 13 Raptor engines relighting, to begin its return to the launch site. > > Super Heavy then relit all 13 planned middle ring and center Raptor engines and performed its landing burn, including the engine that did not relight for boostback burn. The landing burn slowed Super Heavy down and maneuvered itself to the launch and catch tower arms, resulting in the second successful catch of a Super Heavy booster. > > Following stage separation, the Starship upper stage successfully lit all six Raptor engines and performed its ascent burn to space. Prior to the burn’s completion, telemetry was lost with the vehicle after approximately eight and a half minutes of flight. Initial data indicates a fire developed in the aft section of the ship, leading to a rapid unscheduled disassembly. > > Starship flew within its designated launch corridor – as all U.S. launches do to safeguard the public both on the ground, on water and in the air. Any surviving pieces of debris would have fallen into the designated hazard area. If you believe you have identified a piece of debris, please do not attempt to handle or retrieve the debris directly. Instead, please contact your local authorities or the SpaceX Debris Hotline at 1-866-623-0234 or at [recovery@spacex.com](mailto:recovery@spacex.com). > > As always, success comes from what we learn, and this flight test will help us improve Starship’s reliability as SpaceX seeks to make life multiplanetary. Data review is already underway as we seek out root cause. We will conduct a thorough investigation, in coordination with the FAA, and implement corrective actions to make improvements on future Starship flight tests. > > The ship and booster for Starship’s eighth flight test are built and going through prelaunch testing and preparing to fly as we continue a rapid iterative development process to build a fully and rapidly reusable space transportation system. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1274 "2025-01-17T04:47:20Z")
Elon writes: > Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month. But: > Multiple flights could be seen entering holding patterns or completely changing course in the airspace near Puerto Rico shortly after the ship exploded on its way to space, according to data from [Flightradar24](https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1880038519739150811). The FAA said normal airspace operations have since resumed. > > Airports suffered disruptions as a result of the diversions. Miami International Airport posted a 30-minute delay warning due to the “rocket launch anomaly,” according to the FAA’s website. > **[FAA had to divert flights because of SpaceX Starship explosion | TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/16/faa-had-to-divert-flights-because-of-spacex-starship-explosion/)** > > The Federal Aviation Administration told TechCrunch it had to "briefly" slow and divert a number of aircraft near the area where debris was seen falling The possibility of causing a major airline crash would normally cause a major FAA delay while this was being investigated. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1275 "2025-01-17T04:54:38Z")
I think it very much depends on whether anything went outside the designated corridor. I don’t know the details of the flight restrictions, but it would not surprise me if it had some rule along the lines of “the corridor opens at X o’clock under nominal conditions, or X+1 o’clock if there’s an anomaly”. Planes were already excluded from the zone due to the flight–it’s just that they had to wait even longer since it may take a while for debris to come down. All of this should have been worked out in advance. If there was some violation on top of that, it would be a serious concern, but I don’t see any evidence that that’s the case. The failure of the Flight Termination System on Flight 1 was an example of violating expectations, and certainly demanded a full FAA investigation (and fix). But I’m not sure anything here violated expectations in the same way. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1276 "2025-01-17T06:02:48Z")
Another view of the break-up of the ship. Strangely beautiful: - [https://old.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1i3225j/just\_seen\_over\_tci\_heading\_east\_to\_west\_with\_a/](https://old.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1i3225j/just_seen_over_tci_heading_east_to_west_with_a/) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1277 "2025-01-17T06:13:26Z")
Can you imagine how amazing it’s going to look when the ISS reenters? It’s about 4x the mass of Starship. NASA should make sure it happens over the continental US. Just aim it for some state no one cares about, like Nebraska. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1278 "2025-01-17T06:44:25Z")
I’ve seen footage of the final re-entry of the Columbia, and it looked a lot like this. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1279 "2025-01-17T14:12:39Z")
I watched the replay on YouTube and you could see when the telemetry from the ship stopped updating. At the time, the fanboy announcers were gushing about the return to the launch pad and barely noticed. It sure would be nice if there were professionals at the mics and not the hacks that they have now. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2025, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1280 "2025-01-17T17:16:25Z")
I watched the [Everyday Astronaut](https://youtu.be/6Px_b5eSzsA) stream on YouTube and, while he is unabashedly a rocket fanboy, I don’t think he did anything wrong. He gushed at the lower stage getting caught by the launch tower which is pretty cool. A little after that they reported the upper stage was lost but no one had amazing pics of it burning through the atmosphere. He knew it was lost but what was he to say about it? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=63) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=65)