# Starship development and progress \[previous title: Will Musk's starship reach orbit this year?\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** elon-musk\ **Created:** [July 7, 2022, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583 "2022-07-07T22:05:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 68
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2025, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1341 "2025-05-27T23:46:09Z")
Why don’t the upper stage engines look incandescent? ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2025, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1342 "2025-05-27T23:47:38Z")
Booster wasn’t intended to survive , but I think it oopsed before intention. Upper stage so far OK. Brian ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2025, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1343 "2025-05-27T23:47:57Z")
The Merlin Vacuum (Falcon 9) engines are incandescent because the nozzle extensions are passively cooled–they’re made from niobium and can take the heat. The Raptor engines are fully regeneratively cooled, i.e., they have propellant flowing through channels, keeping them well under red hot. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2025, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1344 "2025-05-27T23:49:19Z")
> [@N9IWP](#): > > Booster wasn’t intended to survive , but I think it oopsed before intention. Yeah, something happened prematurely there. They were intentionally aggressive with the trajectory so possibly this wasn’t totally unexpected. Could also relate to being reused, etc. Hopefully we find out at some point. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1345 "2025-05-28T00:06:07Z")
I think we can safely say that early critics who said that 30+ engines wouldn’t work have been rebutted. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1346 "2025-05-28T00:10:32Z")
Yeah, the booster has performed very well in general. Seems like they’ve got that basically nailed. Sounds like they’ve lost attitude control for the Ship, though, so probably no controlled reentry at this point. Can’t entirely tell what’s going on from the video. Also no door opening, so no Starlink simulators deployed. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1347 "2025-05-28T00:10:49Z")
Loss of attitude control. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1348 "2025-05-28T00:16:48Z")
Feels like with an advanced enough control system, the flaps should be enough to put it in a proper initial orientation… at the point where there’s non-trivial aerodynamic force on the flaps but before it gets too hot. Doubt they’ve engineered for that case, though. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1349 "2025-05-28T00:20:32Z")
Ahh, poo. Ship will “passivate.” So no chance at even getting lucky here. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1350 "2025-05-28T00:24:16Z")
Can’t help feeling like this is a step backwards. It’s been awhile now since upper stage made it to splashdown. And as long as we keep having these midcourse failures we’re getting zero testing of the heat shielding done. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1351 "2025-05-28T00:32:29Z")
Remember that all of these have been with the Version 2 Ship. It _does_ seem a bit cursed… but it made it to orbit finally. And we have the first reused Booster, which is a big step forward (they confirmed that they intentionally gave it an aggressive angle of attack, so the failure at landing burn wasn’t super unexpected), plus the improved hot staging. Relative to the past two flights it’s certainly a step forward in a few ways. But yeah, it is disappointing to still not have reentry data, especially since Elon called it the “flight of tiles” or the like. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1352 "2025-05-28T00:41:04Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Feels like with an advanced enough control system, the flaps should be enough to put it in a proper initial orientation They need to install an [etheric rudder](https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Etheric_rudder). ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1353 "2025-05-28T00:48:03Z")
I suppose it would make sense for there to be ether in the Star Wars galaxy. Not so much our own, though. I wonder if we’ll see any footage of the re-entering Starship. It more or less made it to the landing zone, which is in the middle of the ocean. So there won’t be any videos from a zillion tourists in Turks & Caicos. Maybe some observant crewmember on a cargo ship? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1354 "2025-05-28T01:18:13Z")
So we got a little peek at the next-gen hot stage vent ring in the Everyday Astronaut interview. This is what the current vent ring looks like: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/R0g4ve2.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/R0g4ve2) It’s a little overbuilt. They showed off a render where it looks more like a triangular truss, in this fuzzy image: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/OGRczj7.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/OGRczj7) And here is just a little slice of the real version, on the right-hand side just behind the first set of white girders: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/PwxqoZ8.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/PwxqoZ8) Hopefully this makes it to Flight 10. Though I wonder how they’ll do the directional thrusting with this version. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1355 "2025-05-28T01:39:47Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Can’t help feeling like this is a step backwards. SpaceX is mass producing rockets like no other manufacturer. It gives them the opportunity to test them under real conditions and rapidly advance their technology. The alternative is to spend money on a massive infrastructure to test them under conditions that cannot fully replicate a launch. Which method has yielded more success? Keep in mind SpaceX started in 2002 compared to NASA’s history going back halfway into the last century. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1356 "2025-05-28T01:53:07Z")
This is what Starfactory looks like right now: [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/R1qfklo.png "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/R1qfklo) We’re only seeing a tiny corner of it and there’s components from at least three different Starships under construction. It’s an enormous factory, something like 2000 feet long. ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 10:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1357 "2025-05-28T10:51:07Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Can’t help feeling like this is a step backwards Agreed. They’re putting a brave face on it and we understand that this is difficult stuff. But it has to be said that in the 3 years since we started this thread, progress has been a a bit disappointing. At the very least it means that any projections of timescales for real future missions have to be taken with a very large pinch of salt. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1358 "2025-05-28T11:56:28Z")
Gotta say that the pic of musk and one of the factory dudes 2 posts up makes him look like a very unhealthy man. The other dude looks like a generic American dude. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1359 "2025-05-28T13:00:19Z")
Still, “no boost phase RUD” is an improvement. One step at a time. (Although stuff like a propellant leak feels like poor manufacturing quality, which should be a solved problem.) ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2025, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1360 "2025-05-28T16:53:02Z")
> [@xtenkfarpl](#): > > But it has to be said that in the 3 years since we started this thread, progress has been a a bit disappointing. At the very least it means that any projections of timescales for real future missions have to be taken with a very large pinch of salt. When I started watching the countdown they were talking about how in the future they were going to be doing 1,000 Starship launches per year. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=67) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=69)