# Starship development and progress \[previous title: Will Musk's starship reach orbit this year?\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** elon-musk\ **Created:** [July 7, 2022, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583 "2022-07-07T22:05:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 78
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2026, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1541 "2026-05-16T20:08:24Z")
The guy ended his article with good old-fashioned journalistic objectivity: > With these upgrades, Starship V3 is poised for an epic test flight that could accelerate humanity’s multiplanetary future. The rapid pace of iteration underscores SpaceX’s relentless drive toward making life multiplanetary. Launch watchers are in for a spectacular show. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2026, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1542 "2026-05-16T20:15:23Z")
I for one have been hoping, almost praying, that Starship works and fulfills the goal of finally making large scale space cargo available at something less than billionaire’s-yacht prices; and wringing my hands over every delay and disappointment. So I can sympathize with a little boosterism. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2026, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1543 "2026-05-16T20:42:42Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > > Launch watchers are in for a spectacular show. Inner quote from the article @Darren_Garrison was referring to. That very last bit I excerpted is a pretty safe bet with any rocket launch. It’ll either go spectacularly nominal, or spectacularly off-nominal. Rockets that big are spectacular no matter what happens when you light the fuze. 😁 But yeah, the rest of that paragraph was the author buttering up his sources in hopes of continued access. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2026, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1544 "2026-05-18T20:43:08Z")
A look at Starship’s troubled development and the current state of hopes and fears for both it and SpaceX as a whole: > **[The US space enterprise is desperately waiting for Starship—will it finally...](https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/05/the-us-space-enterprise-is-desperately-waiting-for-starship-will-it-finally-deliver/?utm_brand=arstechnica&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social)** > > This is such a wild ride. The highs are high. The lows are low." ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2026, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1545 "2026-05-20T18:45:44Z")
> SpaceX’s newest version of its massive [Starship](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy.html), the world’s largest and most powerful rocket, is now scheduled to launch its critical test flight no earlier than **Thursday, May 21, at 6:30 p.m. EDT (2230 GMT)** from Starbase, Texas,. > **[SpaceX Starship Flight 12 launch updates: 1st Starship V3 stacked ahead of...](https://www.space.com/news/live/spacex-starship-flight-12-launch-updates-may-20-2026)** > > SpaceX is now targeting a Thursday, May 21, launch for its newest Starship design, the Starship V3 megarocket. See our latest updates here. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2026, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1546 "2026-05-21T02:41:42Z")
SpaceX’s internal accounting finally released in preparation for the IPO. > **[Famously secret about its finances, SpaceX opens its books for the first time](https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/05/spacex-submits-detailed-financial-filing-ahead-of-going-public-in-june/?utm_brand=arstechnica&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social)** > > We believe we have identified the largest TAM in human history." If nothing else I think this will rebut critics who claimed that SpaceX and Falcon 9 were essentially a pyramid scheme offering artificially low launch prices. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2026, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1547 "2026-05-21T03:02:58Z")
I don’t think that’s the primary takeaway from that filing. The primary takeaway is that this is just more AI hogwash. > “We believe we have identified the largest TAM in human history,” the company states on page 171 of the filing. “We believe our next trillion-dollar market is AI compute, which we contemplate will leverage our rockets and satellites for massive orbital deployment.” TAM is ‘total addressable market’, which the filing projects as being comprised of $370B space launch services, $1.6T Starlink, and $26T in AI. That is, SpaceX’s IPO filing projects that SpaceX’s heretofore core business is barely relevant to their projected future business. The whole thing seems to be little more than “AI is going to be worth a kazillion dollars so invest all your money in us or live with the regret of missing out for the rest of your life.” Things like this make me question my belief in investing in broad market index funds. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2026, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1548 "2026-05-21T03:07:15Z")
Although supposedly planning for SpaceX to launch orbital data centers does tie in with promoting AI as the next big terabuck thing to revolutionize the global economy. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2026, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1549 "2026-05-21T22:01:51Z")
Except that orbital data centers are an absolutely boneheaded idea. The only benefit to putting a data center in orbit is that you can use solar power for it constantly. That’s at best a factor of two improvement, even if launch costs and so on were completely free. Meanwhile, it’s an immense pain to dump waste heat in space, typically a higher cost than the power input. If you really want a data center that runs 100% of the time on solar power, just build two of them, at opposite longitudes on the Earth. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2026, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1550 "2026-05-21T23:00:07Z")
Speaking of SpaceX, launch scheduled for 30 minutes from now. > **[SpaceX Starship Flight 12 live launch updates: Starship V3 liftoff set for...](https://www.space.com/news/live/spacex-starship-flight-12-launch-updates-may-21-2026)** > > SpaceX is targeting a Thursday, May 21, launch for its newest Starship design, the Starship V3 megarocket. See our latest updates here. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2026, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1551 "2026-05-21T23:41:05Z")
Scrub. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2026, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1552 "2026-05-22T22:31:22Z")
Did Musk command a hold on the launch just so he could shill?? ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2026, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1553 "2026-05-22T22:38:49Z")
Launched. No RUD but both stages lost an engine. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2026, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1554 "2026-05-22T22:40:53Z")
GODDAMN, I missed the launch because SpaceX was the ONLY feed that didn’t show it!!! ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2026, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1555 "2026-05-22T22:45:22Z")
I watched it here. > **[SpaceX Starship Flight 12 live launch updates: Starship V3 Ship in flight,...](https://www.space.com/news/live/spacex-starship-flight-12-launch-updates-may-22-2026)** > > SpaceX is now targeting a Friday, May 22, launch for its newest Starship design, the Starship V3 megarocket after a launch scrub. See our latest updates here. ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2026, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1556 "2026-05-22T23:07:52Z")
Well, it launched. But it seems that the booster relight didn’t happen… uncontrolled booster re-entry, then, I guess? Deliberate? Not a good step towards reusability. Lost a ship engine and scrapped orbital relight test. Not really looking very optimal so far… ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2026, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1557 "2026-05-22T23:11:05Z")
> [@xtenkfarpl](#): > > But it seems that the booster relight didn’t happen… uncontrolled booster re-entry, then, I guess? The feed I was watching was talking about the booster not relighting, but then talking about they didn’t plan a recovery anyway, so I wasn’t sure if things were going according to plan or not. ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2026, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1558 "2026-05-22T23:13:39Z")
True, they did say they weren’t planning a booster catch this time, so maybe they didn’t bother trying for a soft booster landing anyway. Not clear from what was announced? ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2026, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1559 "2026-05-22T23:46:13Z")
Well, looks as if it made it through re-entry without too much damage, unlike some earlier tests. Still suffered an RUD at sea impact though… they are going to have to address that. Overall, a 70% success, perhaps? ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2026, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1560 "2026-05-22T23:59:43Z")
Explosion after toppling into the sea after a soft landing is 100% expected, and not something that needs addressing. There’s basically zero chance of the remaining fuel not going boom when Starship topples over after the cutting the engines. The solution to this is simply landing on a barge or landing pad. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=77) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=79)