# Starship development and progress \[previous title: Will Musk's starship reach orbit this year?\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** elon-musk\ **Created:** [July 7, 2022, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583 "2022-07-07T22:05:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 82
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1621 "2026-09-26T00:17:06Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > I don’t remember if I’ve posted a link here on the Dope but there was a YouTube video explaining that it is VASTLY more profitable for SpaceX to devote launches to its own in-house moneymaking ventures than to sell launch capacity to anyone else. You may well have, but as just one data point, I did not notice it. At a time when e.g. Starlink is still growing and filling in I agree that the follow-on revenue of that incremental Starlink satellite does a lot more good for MuskCo than does selling the same launch poundage to some university for an experiment. Of course selling launch capacity to a direct Starlink competitor is double-bad. But once Starlink is built out, what other moneymaking ideas do they have to put into orbit? I’m genuinely curious. The datacenter thing seems pretty fanciful. As does the (not-profit) Mars colony. What else is in the pipeline? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1622 "2026-09-26T00:24:14Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > And even if thousands of ships making colonization voyages to Mars never happens, they’re hoping that placing data centers in space takes off (no pun intended) in a big way. No, they’re hoping that they can convince people that data centers in space will take off, for long enough for them to have a chance to figure out something real they can sell space access for. ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1623 "2026-09-26T15:27:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > data centers in space This seems to me to be almost as silly an idea as the old powersat idea that keeps coming up. Why put a datacenter somewhere that costs a lot to reach, and then you can’t maintain it easily, and where powering it is not actually that easy. Though I suppose its product (data) is easier to ship to Earth than actual energy… ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1624 "2026-09-26T16:00:12Z")
Okay, fwiw here’s the YouTube I mentioned: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/DlXb3zSLdFY/maxresdefault.jpg "Why Elon Musk is Really Building Starship") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlXb3zSLdFY) Basically, the presenter points out that “dumb pipes”– simply providing transport of something from point A to point B– is nowhere near as profitable as owning something at either end that the pipeline makes possible. IF data centers, especially AI data centers in space works (which he freely admits is not a given yet), then launching and supporting such data centers could be a hugely profitable use for Starship. ---
**Author:** ![gnoitall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bb73d2/32.png) [@gnoitall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gnoitall)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1625 "2026-09-26T16:09:37Z")
> [@xtenkfarpl](#): > > This seems to me to be almost as silly an idea as the old powersat idea that keeps coming up. Here’s an FQ discussion about the topic (talking mostly about the factual advantages and disadvantages relative to current ground-based data centers). > [@AI data centres (datacenters) in space!](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ai-data-centres-datacenters-in-space/1031098): > > So commercial artificial intelligence operations (OpenAI, Anthropic and so on) require some high-performance processors with high power and cooling requirements. Now there is a trend of talking about putting such data centres in space. SpaceX and some others are betting the farm (and probably your funds) on this. A few months ago, I was seeing articles like [this one](https://taranis.ie/datacenters-in-space-are-a-terrible-horrible-no-good-idea/), saying the cooling would be a limiting factor because there’s no convection up there. Plus: solar power is still not as abundant… ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1626 "2026-09-26T17:56:51Z")
Agree overall. I’ll add my 2 cents to this bt: > [@xtenkfarpl](#): > > where powering it is not actually that easy. IMO, and not an expert, powering it is easier than cooling it. Photocells are fairly well understood efficient tech for gathering energy into electricity. Especially when operating in a dustless vacuum. 100% of which plentiful electricity will be turned into heat inside the datacenter. And need to be dumped into the very, very inconvenient medium of a well-lit vacuum. Aye, there’s the rub. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1627 "2026-09-26T18:15:15Z")
On the other hand, doesn’t that mean that the data satellite would ultimately be in the same thermal equilibrium as any object of the same size sitting in sunlight in orbit? AIUI the main problem would be dispersing heat away from the central core back out to the periphery of its panels. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1628 "2026-09-26T18:43:04Z")
The average temperature yes. But as you say, the trick is to get the concentrated high temps out of the small CPU & GPU core chips and into the far larger more diffuse lower temp thermal radiators of whatever nature. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1629 "2026-09-27T02:27:43Z")
You’d use a fan. There’s a solar wind isn’t there. 😁🙄 ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2026, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1630 "2026-09-28T13:45:01Z")
Four years and two months after this thread was started, Starship reaches orbit. [https://www.npr.org/2026/09/28/nx-s1-5983418/spacex-starship-first-orbital-flight-14-nasa](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/28/nx-s1-5983418/spacex-starship-first-orbital-flight-14-nasa) ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2026, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1631 "2026-09-28T13:46:02Z")
Stop the count! ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2026, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1632 "2026-09-28T15:14:26Z")
"Good times are coming, I hear it everywhere I go. Good times are coming - but they’re sure coming slow" – (Neil Young). When did Musk say we’d land on Mars? Let’s apply the same scaling factor… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2026, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1633 "2026-09-28T15:39:02Z")
> [@NPR Article](#): > > Previous Starship flights have been suborbital. Starship 14 is the first time the vehicle will reach orbital speeds — about 17,500 mph. I thought previous flights, while not completing an orbit, were in fact “orbital” because they did reach orbital speeds, I am wrong or the article is wrong? ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2026, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1634 "2026-09-28T17:21:40Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > I thought previous flights, while not completing an orbit, were in fact “orbital” because they did reach orbital speeds, As I understand it, they were very close to, but not quite at, sustainable orbit velocity. It appears that it only took a quite small additional push on this flight to get it to actual orbit. Of course, now they have to do a de-orbit burn as well. Well, strictly, an orbit at that altitude would probably decay quite rapidly anyway from residual atmospheric friction, but that’s not very controllable. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2026, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1635 "2026-09-28T17:40:02Z")
Oh I see, that means then that this is the first time they try a de-orbit burn. ---
**Author:** ![xtenkfarpl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/c2a13f/32.png) [@xtenkfarpl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/xtenkfarpl)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2026, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1636 "2026-09-28T17:59:39Z")
Ah. Been away from the computer for a while. Seems they did the de-orbit burn and brought it back in more or less on target. Doesn’t seem to have been as well controlled as the last one though: it exploded on landing. Progress of a sort… but they are still way short of anything resembling a reusable system yet, it seems. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2026, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1637 "2026-09-28T20:46:48Z")
Getting a Starship upper stage back in reusable condition seems to be the hard part. That _ought_ to be possible given that we got the Space Shuttles back (usually). But of course barely workable if the orbiter then spends the next six months in a hanger isn’t what they’re aiming for, so the development process may take longer. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1638 "2026-09-29T00:08:01Z")
> [@xtenkfarpl](#): > > Seems they did the de-orbit burn and brought it back in more or less on target. Doesn’t seem to have been as well controlled as the last one though: it exploded on landing. The flight was scheduled to last around 10 hours but they deorbited it after a little more than 2 hours. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1639 "2026-09-29T00:24:07Z")
“Exploded”? It should have had very little fuel left in the tanks. Unless it was just some other form of Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly due to the collision with the ground? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583/1640 "2026-09-29T00:53:57Z")
This 3-minute YouTube pretty conclusively shows the _Starship_ payload flight landed nominally in the open ocean. Upright with no translation and a tolerable vertical speed. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/GZ-UKKTC09M/maxresdefault.jpg "Starship reentry and landing, 28 September 2026") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ-UKKTC09M) If you’re impatient, the money shot starts shortly after the 2:00 timestamp. With no platform there under it (apparently on purpose), the next thing that happens is the engines cut off, the thing dops vertically into the water it was hovering just above, then tips over and an explosion occurs. That happens every time one lands in the water. That much at least is not a malfunction, but a completely predictable consequence of dunking a hot rocket w residual fuel into a cold ocean. It’s not built to survive that unscathed, and it doesn’t. Move along. Nothing to see here with the landing explosion. Unless somebody is talking about the _Booster_ landing. Which I did not chase down. I’d be a lot more interested in why they deorbited at roughly 20% into the planned mission duration. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=81) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/starship-development-and-progress-previous-title-will-musks-starship-reach-orbit-this-year/967583.md?page=83)