Blue Origin actually shipped working engines to ULA. That’s not exactly SpaceX-level production (which is seemingly pumping out about a Raptor a day), but it’s something. I’m sure ULA will be able to launch Vulcan this year.
I agree here with @Sam_Stone. And in any case, Gwynne Shotwell is a capable leader and will keep the Starship program moving forward. I don’t think there are any major technical decisions left to make; now it’s a matter of executing on the current design, and Gwynne may actually be a better fit for this kind of final detail work. There are also many capable leaders below Shotwell that have shown up in various places.
It may seem that progress has been slow since the flurry of test flight activity in 2021, but there’s been immense progress made in Boca Chica. As Sam said, they’ve been producing boosters and orbiters at such a high rate that they’re running out of places to put them.
As for moving closer to the equator–not going to happen. Musk has become a big believer in geographic proximity. I think he slightly regrets even going to Boca Chica, since it is so far away from big population centers. Hawthorne has a huge concentration of aerospace engineers; Florida obviously has plenty of expertise as well. Boca Chica is just too much of a commute.
Try reading Eric Berger’s Liftoff! for the story about the Falcon 1, launching out of Omelek Island. Every aspect of it was a complete pain in the ass. Musk definitely doesn’t want to repeat that.
Doesn’t help. ITAR isn’t about the company. It is about the technology and knowledge. And it is taken very very seriously. In order to export any ITAR controlled technology - even it is just controlled documentation - you need approval from the Department of State. And that approval isn’t simply given to say Space-X. At this level it is based upon government to government level requests, with a clear need, and assurances about how the technology is controlled once exported. Government of foreign country applies to the Department of State, they provide approval to SpaceX for technology transfer under strict conditions for which both SpaceX, the receiving company, and the foreign country are on the hook for.
In some ways ITAR is more strict than classified information. Moreover, the rules have teeth, and they are enforced. There is no messing about with ITAR. Doing so is a fast trip to a few years in Club Fed. Possibly quite a few.
Yep. I’ve heard from good sources that they have a hard time recruiting talent to work at Starbase due to the surrounding area not being a great place to live for recent grads and even worse for those with families. Something about offering generous bonus pay to work there, even if you have to commute from Hawthorne.
Interesting. I’ve also heard that Musk’s private jet has made lots of trips there ferrying employees.
Regardless, Boca Chica is still probably the least-worst option. Outside the US is worse. Hawaii isn’t great.
Within the continental US, if you want low-inclination launches, your only choices are the East Coast and Texas. The East is too built-up, excepting the existing complexes: Wallops and Cape Canaveral. Wallops is probably too small. SpaceX will obviously fly out of Cape Canaveral (they are already building facilities), but I don’t think they want a risky test program going on there if at all possible. So that leaves Texas. Not a great situation, but physics and geography don’t leave many options.
Sooner or later they are going to have to say ‘alea jacta est’ and press the button, or admit that it’s not going to fly in its current configuration, I think.
SpaceX has said that with the last spin-prime test last week, they have completed all the items required to be done before the orbital attempt. Waiting on the FAA launch license and who knows what other final details (fuel deliveries, whatever). But the vehicle itself is apparently ready to go.
Evidence suggests that they are actually really close this time. It’s not just Musk’s projections; other people from the company are optimistic as well, like Gwynne Shotwell or Gary Henry:
While we don’t know the exact nature of the FAA approval, my speculation is that it requires not just a locked design, but locked physical hardware (within reasonable limits). Specifically, people watching the activities at Boca Chica have seen that SpaceX has not replaced the 2 engines that didn’t participate in the static fire, and seemingly just made some small repairs. That suggests to me that the FAA wanted to see the same 33 engines on the vehicle that were used in the static fire.
I still wouldn’t give it more than a 50% chance at March, but clearly things are coming together.
Yes, Teslerati website says they are “close” to getting FAA approval.
Whatever we think of Musk, he is a high-level idea man. He wants a reusable spaceship, wants to try simple construction rather than over-engineering, etc. etc. Basically, what NASA should have done 40 years ago but unfortunately would not generate as much steady income for Boeing et al. Why build a 33-engine ship when you can get a long-term series of grants to design and test much larger motors.
(I see the same high level ideas for Tesla Model 3 - minimalist design using a screen instead of a plethora of buttons (which also translates to cheap build), the regular over-the-air updates, the push for FSD, the excessive performance, glass roof, bypassing dealer networks, the insistence on highly automated factories, etc. All things a more traditional company would have passed over for fear of driving away customers more used to traditional ways.)
Obviously, if there is any tech and hardware which would be severely export-limited, rocket motors and rocket guidance tech would be top of the list.
Tick tick again. April now and no launch.
I really think Musk has lost interest, and they are probably having serious technical issues that he is not willing to throw money or attention at right now. A pity, we could have had a real space program…
The FAA has become very risk-averse since the MAX events. And not risk as in risk-of-mishap. As in risk-of-hit-to-FAA’s-reputation.
A chronically understaffed and not real bright bureacracy where each department is running scared of being the department that last touched the [whatever] before [some bad thing] happened is NOT a recipe for high throughout responsive government. Rather the opposite.
Boeing is suffering. AAM is suffering. E-ification of aviation is suffering. Sustainable fuel efforts are suffering. No Managing Director wants to testify before a Congressional committee while getting the TikTok CEO treatment. And their subordinates are behaving accordingly.
Seems like the FAA is getting more CYA-ish at exactly the wrong time. We have a lot of things coming down the pipe that need a more flexible, risk-tolerant approach. That’s not to say they should sacrifice human safety, but moving too slowly carries its own risks.
Well, despite that, it does seem like we’re getting close. And clearly, not all the delays were on the FAA side, no matter what Musk might have said. Hopefully we really are in the home stretch.
This was posted in the other space thread:
This in particular seems very promising:
It also appears that, tentatively, NASA is reserving the use of its high-altitude WB-57 aircraft for observations of the Starship test flight on April 10 and 11.
NASA is obviously very interested in how Starship behaves, not just because it is the centerpiece of the Artemis program, but on general research principles as well. This is not the first time they’ve put the WB-57 to that use: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UFjK_CFKgA
Actual in-flight use of hypersonic retropropulsion was new with the Falcon 9. And the reentry style of Starship is also brand new and worth paying attention to.
Yep; that’s what the WB-57 is about. In principle. The plane is a great imaging platform that they’ve used in the past to monitor SpaceX flights (specifically, Falcon 9 booster and Crew Dragon reentry).
More rumors:
NEGATIVE Elon time?!? Maybe the world is ending soon.
The thing about orbital rockets is that the technology is almost identical to building an ICBM. That’s frustrated private launch development as far back as OTRAG - Wikipedia . It’s almost like getting permission to build a chemical plant that uses precursor chemicals that with a tiny tweak could produce nerve gas instead.
I recall a discussion at the time (Analog magazine?) where the columnist suggested the invasion of that Katanga area of Zaire by rebels was a deliberate attempt egged on by a superpower to engineer the seizure of the rocket base and prevent Otrag from going forward. “The first space war”.