Starship development and progress [previous title: Will Musk's starship reach orbit this year?]

Why don’t the upper stage engines look incandescent?

Booster wasn’t intended to survive , but I think it oopsed before intention.
Upper stage so far OK.

Brian

The Merlin Vacuum (Falcon 9) engines are incandescent because the nozzle extensions are passively cooled–they’re made from niobium and can take the heat. The Raptor engines are fully regeneratively cooled, i.e., they have propellant flowing through channels, keeping them well under red hot.

Yeah, something happened prematurely there. They were intentionally aggressive with the trajectory so possibly this wasn’t totally unexpected. Could also relate to being reused, etc. Hopefully we find out at some point.

I think we can safely say that early critics who said that 30+ engines wouldn’t work have been rebutted.

Yeah, the booster has performed very well in general. Seems like they’ve got that basically nailed.

Sounds like they’ve lost attitude control for the Ship, though, so probably no controlled reentry at this point. Can’t entirely tell what’s going on from the video.

Also no door opening, so no Starlink simulators deployed.

Loss of attitude control. :frowning:

Feels like with an advanced enough control system, the flaps should be enough to put it in a proper initial orientation… at the point where there’s non-trivial aerodynamic force on the flaps but before it gets too hot. Doubt they’ve engineered for that case, though.

Ahh, poo. Ship will “passivate.” So no chance at even getting lucky here.

Can’t help feeling like this is a step backwards. It’s been awhile now since upper stage made it to splashdown. And as long as we keep having these midcourse failures we’re getting zero testing of the heat shielding done.

Remember that all of these have been with the Version 2 Ship. It does seem a bit cursed… but it made it to orbit finally. And we have the first reused Booster, which is a big step forward (they confirmed that they intentionally gave it an aggressive angle of attack, so the failure at landing burn wasn’t super unexpected), plus the improved hot staging.

Relative to the past two flights it’s certainly a step forward in a few ways. But yeah, it is disappointing to still not have reentry data, especially since Elon called it the “flight of tiles” or the like.

They need to install an etheric rudder.

I suppose it would make sense for there to be ether in the Star Wars galaxy. Not so much our own, though.

I wonder if we’ll see any footage of the re-entering Starship. It more or less made it to the landing zone, which is in the middle of the ocean. So there won’t be any videos from a zillion tourists in Turks & Caicos. Maybe some observant crewmember on a cargo ship?

So we got a little peek at the next-gen hot stage vent ring in the Everyday Astronaut interview. This is what the current vent ring looks like:
Imgur

It’s a little overbuilt. They showed off a render where it looks more like a triangular truss, in this fuzzy image:
Imgur

And here is just a little slice of the real version, on the right-hand side just behind the first set of white girders:
Imgur

Hopefully this makes it to Flight 10. Though I wonder how they’ll do the directional thrusting with this version.

SpaceX is mass producing rockets like no other manufacturer. It gives them the opportunity to test them under real conditions and rapidly advance their technology. The alternative is to spend money on a massive infrastructure to test them under conditions that cannot fully replicate a launch.

Which method has yielded more success? Keep in mind SpaceX started in 2002 compared to NASA’s history going back halfway into the last century.

This is what Starfactory looks like right now:
Imgur

We’re only seeing a tiny corner of it and there’s components from at least three different Starships under construction. It’s an enormous factory, something like 2000 feet long.

Agreed. They’re putting a brave face on it and we understand that this is difficult stuff.

But it has to be said that in the 3 years since we started this thread, progress has been a a bit disappointing. At the very least it means that any projections of timescales for real future missions have to be taken with a very large pinch of salt.

Gotta say that the pic of musk and one of the factory dudes 2 posts up makes him look like a very unhealthy man. The other dude looks like a generic American dude.

Still, “no boost phase RUD” is an improvement.

One step at a time.

(Although stuff like a propellant leak feels like poor manufacturing quality, which should be a solved problem.)

When I started watching the countdown they were talking about how in the future they were going to be doing 1,000 Starship launches per year.