# State of the Union: Obama seals his fate **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 26, 2011, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014 "2011-01-26T03:25:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/61 "2011-01-26T15:54:49Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > It’s more subtle than that. Thanks to the President’s ill-advised promise, Dems cannot attempt to insert any earmarks without potentially embarrassing Obama. Reps can use them freely, and I suspect will be sure to load up popular bills with them. Obama then has to veto popular legislation–and get pilloried for it, or he breaks his promise and gets pilloried for that. But Republicans promised to end earmarks, too. So they’ll get “pilloried” for putting them in there before the bill even reaches Obama’s desk, according to your reasoning. Now, it’s true that the media gives more attention to the president’s actions than to the actions of any member of Congress. But speaker Boehner is riding high, and will surely be in the spotlight, too. ---
**Author:** ![Walmarticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Walmarticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walmarticus)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/62 "2011-01-26T15:55:25Z")
> [@Ca3799](#): > > My take away was “We need to consider where we want to be and seriously invest in our future” and I have no disagreement with that sentiment. Odd. This is the part I like least, but only because I hate the phrase “invest in our future”. BAH! You don’t need to say you’re investing in the future because that’s what investment is. Trust me, people wouldn’t think you wanted to invest in 1995, so no need to clarify "in our future. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/63 "2011-01-26T16:00:46Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > Just watched the SotU address. Found it very…underwhelming. Standard pie in the sky, chicken in every pot, yes we can drivel, and what I consider a startling error. And how was this any different than his campaign speeches that got him elected AND a Nobel Prize? ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/64 "2011-01-26T16:06:15Z")
> [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](#): > > True fiscal conservatism would not support unfunded tax giveaways to the richest 1%. “Fiscal conservatism” means whatever people want it to mean. Silly me, I originally thought that “fiscal conservative” was someone that was _cough cough_ fiscally sane. Instead it’s generally some sort of rehashed lipstick on a pig supply side economics/starve the beast/government is the problem/efficient markets/protectionism/gold standard crapfest. I would thank some of the outspoken posters on these boards for having corrected my false understanding. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/65 "2011-01-26T16:07:30Z")
> [@Walmarticus](#): > > Odd. This is the part I like least, but only because I hate the phrase “invest in our future”. BAH! You don’t need to say you’re investing in the future because that’s what investment is. Trust me, people wouldn’t think you wanted to invest in 1995, so no need to clarify "in our future. Not that I wouldn’t LIKE to invest in 1995 again. At least we were in the MIDDLE of a bubble then instead of still working our way to the surface after it burst. ---
**Author:** ![LonesomePolecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a88e57/32.png) [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/66 "2011-01-26T16:08:01Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > Really thought the guy was too smart for such a dumb mistake. Even the very brightest people make mistakes. If you’re constantly in the public eye, as the President is, sooner or later you’ll screw the pooch out in the open where everyone can see. This is why politicians are so very glad the public seems to have such a short memory. I didn’t watch the SOTU, but I’m certain it was just standard political boilerplate, and I’m immensely skeptical it marks the beginning of the end for Obama. IIRC, Obama’s popularity has never dropped below 40% in the last two years, which indicates to me he has a very large and very loyal base. Obama is certainly in no danger of impeachment and removal from office–how would you like to be the white congressman who spearheads a move to impeach a black president? November 2012 is still a long way away, and I don’t see any strong presidential candidates among the Pubs. From where I’m sitting, Obama has an excellent chance of being re-elected. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/67 "2011-01-26T16:08:43Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > January 25, 2011. The beginning of the end for the Obama administration. You don’t **seriously** believe it’s going to end any sooner than 2017, do you? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/68 "2011-01-26T16:09:03Z")
[QUOTE=Obama] …if a bill comes to my desk with earmarks inside, I will veto it. [/QUOTE] Strictly speaking, bills with only one earmark in them are still okay. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/69 "2011-01-26T16:12:58Z")
> [@Mr\_Smashy](#): > > Your cite would have more weight if it actually pointed to a true ‘fiscal conservative’ who actually liked earmarks. Almost by definition, they don’t. Is Tom DeLay a fiscal conservative? Or is he not Scottish enough for your taste? [OpEd.](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0207/2903.html) That’s from 2007. He hasn’t changed his [tune.](http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/01/tom-delay-reflects/70090/) Let me be clear: earmarks are not a big problem. DeLay is right. But you attempt to criticize Obama over earmarks completely ignores the fact that under his Administration and Democratic Congresses, the number and amount of earmarks has dropped by roughly half of what the Republican-led government had inflated them to. It is fine if you think that Obama and Congress should go further, but it is disingenuous not to recognize the amount of earmarks that they have already cut. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/70 "2011-01-26T16:13:34Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Yes, I heard the commentary about the clock really starting a year ago. But the thing is, much of what affects our exports is out of our control. Anyway, I don’t really hold the guy to any platitudes spoken at the SotU speech. Maybe it was just in there to make everyone feel good. After all, that’s the primary purpose of such speeches. “Double exports by 2015” is “vague”? Anyways, I actually think Presidents do generally try and make progress on the issues that they mention in the SOTU. Granted most don’t go anywhere, but thats because the President doesn’t actually have that much power when it comes to domestic policy, and many/most inititives die in the legislature. FWIW, here’s a list of policy proposals from the 2010 SOTU according to wikipeida: > [@](#): > > ``` > * Fees on the country's largest banks (to follow up on the Trouble Assets Relief Program (TARP)) > * Giving $30 billion from recovered TARP money to community banks to extend credit to small businesses > * Job creation > o Building clean energy facilities > o Giving rebates to Americans who make their homes more energy-efficient > o Slash tax breaks for companies that send jobs overseas (giving those breaks to companies that create jobs in the U.S.) > * Encourage American innovation (focus on clean energy) > o Building nuclear power plants > o Exploring off-shore areas for oil and gas > o Investment in advanced biofuels and clean coal technologies > o Comprehensive energy and climate bill to make clean energy profitable > * More exports of goods (goal: double exports in 5 years) > o Launch of a National Export Initiative > * Invest in the skills and education of our people > o Renew the Elementary and Secondary Education Act > o Revitalize community colleges > o Ending taxpayer subsidies to banks for student loans > o $10,000 tax credit for families for four years of college > o Increase Pell Grants > o Only 10% of income to student loans > o All student loan debt forgiven after 20 years, or after 10 years if they choose a career in public service > o Cost cutting at colleges and universities > * Middle Class > o Nearly double the child tax credit > o Giving access to a retirement account for every worker > o Expanding the tax credit for those who start a nest egg (retirement fund) > o Refinancing to make more mortgages affordable > * Tackling childhood obesity (headed by the First Lady, Michelle Obama) > * Health care reform > * Deficit reduction > o Starting in 2011, freeze government spending for 3 years on discretionary programs (excluding national security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security) > o Eliminate programs that are unaffordable or don't work > o Extend middle-class tax cuts > o Bipartisan fiscal commission to provide solutions (created by Executive Order, if necessary) > o Restoring pay-as-you-go law > * Require lobbyists to disclose every contact they make > * Limits on contributions that lobbyists give to candidates > * Reform for earmarks, publish them in a single location on the web > * Crack down on violations of equal pay laws > * Immigration reform > * Repealing Don't ask, don't tell policy within the year to allow homosexuals to openly serve in the military > > ``` Aside from the off-shore drilliing thing, which died for obvious reasons, I can’t really see anything on that list that Obama didn’t at least try to do over the last year (and actually his success rate is pretty good to, but then, it helps to have your party control the legislature). ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Smashy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/2bfe46/32.png) [@Mr\_Smashy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Smashy)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/71 "2011-01-26T16:29:45Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > But you attempt to criticize Obama over earmarks completely ignores the fact that under his Administration and Democratic Congresses, the number and amount of earmarks has dropped by roughly half of what the Republican-led government had inflated them to. It is fine if you think that Obama and Congress should go further, but it is disingenuous not to recognize the amount of earmarks that they have already cut. You completely miss the point. But I forgive you… 🙂 I criticize him for flip flopping, defending them last year, then trying to get on the fiscal conservatism train this year (as if anyone would believe that’s where his heart is). This doesn’t make him unique amongst politicians, you will remember that McConnell had to be brought kicking and screaming to the no-earmarks cause, in effect reversing his course when he read the tea leaves (so to speak). ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/72 "2011-01-26T16:31:30Z")
> [@Mr\_Smashy](#): > > As for the the earmarks concern by the OP, one might reasonably ask why he signed so many of them during the first two years of his Administration (with Congress Democratically controlled, of course). The honest answer? Because he, and the Democrats, generally don’t consider them a bad thing - certainly not likely to cause the downfall of the Republic. They don’t appropriate new funds, they just direct them towards specific projects important to congresspeople. However, now that the GOP, and the Tea Party in particular, has made great noise about earmarks it’s time to call their bluff. > [@Oakminster](#): > > It’s more subtle than that. Thanks to the President’s ill-advised promise, Dems cannot attempt to insert any earmarks without potentially embarrassing Obama. Reps can use them freely, and I suspect will be sure to load up popular bills with them. Obama then has to veto popular legislation–and get pilloried for it, or he breaks his promise and gets pilloried for that. Interesting analysis. Tea Party GOP congressmen were elected on promises of eliminating earmarks. Obama was not elected on such a promise. GOP congressmen insert earmarks into popular bills. I don’t see how either an Obama veto _or_ failure to veto hurts him more politically than it does the GOP in this scenario. If anything a veto makes big news, and points out exactly who inserted what earmarks - and like you said this promise virtually guarantees they will have been inserted by the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![LonesomePolecat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a88e57/32.png) [@LonesomePolecat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LonesomePolecat)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/73 "2011-01-26T16:31:43Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > It’s more subtle than that. Thanks to the President’s ill-advised promise, Dems cannot attempt to insert any earmarks without potentially embarrassing Obama . By the middle of next week, hardly anybody but political junkies will even remember he even said it. ---
**Author:** ![Meatros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Meatros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meatros)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/74 "2011-01-26T16:35:50Z")
> [@leftfield6](#): > > IMHO, the Speaker of the House “allowing” Michele Bachman to have a Tea Party response to the SOTU is the big story. Rather than last night being the bell tolling for Obama, I think it’s ringing for the GOP. Can you imagine Tip O’Neill or even Gingrich letting someone from the House do that. They would have crushed anyone stepping out of line. This I would be concerned about splitting the vote if this trend continues. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/75 "2011-01-26T16:36:36Z")
In fact, I’d argue he played a similar tactic on a number of issues (tort reform, 1099 reform for the health-care bill, corporate tax simplification). Take an issue important to the GOP base and dare them to go for it. Either they do, and Senate Dems get a say in the shape it takes _and_ get to take some credit for it, or they don’t, and Obama is no worse off. It’s not like Boehner’s gonna be pumping out a lot of useful legislation over the next year and a half anyways. Might as well attempt to focus his efforts on things that have a snowball’s chance of being signed. As for Ryan’s response, it was pretty well delivered, I think. One striking feature, however, was it’s negativity. One can argue about whether the tone is justified or not - but you don’t raise your popularity, or that of your party, by comparing yourself to Greece and Ireland and making claims of financial apocalypse without offering specific solutions. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/76 "2011-01-26T16:38:56Z")
Mr Smashy: So you concede the point that fiscal conservatives were the reason earmarks increased so greatly in the last 15 years or so? And as far as flip-flopping goes, who cares? Have you never changed your mind on anything? I disagree with Obama on this earmark business, but clearly it is an olive branch to the Republican House: I will support you on some issues (earmarks, corporate tax rates, tort reform) and I hope you will work with me on others. It is extraordinary, but unsurprising, that some people can’t bear to give Obama credit for anything. He could pull a drowning baby out of a river and bring him back to life with CPR, and there will be people who will criticize him for allowing there to be water in the riverbed. Your criticism on “flip flopping” is in this same spirit: you are so aggravated that Obama now agrees with you, that you must become enraged that Obama didn’t always agree with you. It is a pathetic and irrelevant political argument, more commonly known as “sour grapes.” ---
**Author:** ![Snickers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Snickers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snickers)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/77 "2011-01-26T16:48:58Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Oh, bollocks. November 2012 is a lifetime away. Presidencies are never killed by any one statement (Possible exception for “I like fucking sheep”). “Read my lips: no new taxes.” ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/78 "2011-01-26T16:55:28Z")
That wasn’t really what killed Poppy Bush. The economy was (and the public’s sheer exahustion with the devastation of Reaganomics). ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/79 "2011-01-26T16:56:09Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > It is a pathetic and irrelevant political argument, more commonly known as “sour grapes.” You need sour grapes to make whine. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2011, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014/80 "2011-01-26T17:17:11Z")
The Repblicans getting elected is the best thing to happen to Obama, it gives cover for 2012. He will win the 2012 election pretty easily. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-of-the-union-obama-seals-his-fate/569014.md?page=5)