# State your pick for best (most likely to win) Democratic ticket for 2020. Then say why. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 12, 2018, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229 "2018-09-12T16:40:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/141 "2018-10-09T22:27:56Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Biden? _ **I love Joe Biden** _, and I think he has good “stage presence.” _But health can deteriorate very quickly in old age._ He might be a youngish 75 year-old now but an old 77 year-old when debating for the big job. Read my posts in 2016 — _ **I was rooting for the Democrats to ignore the primaries and select Biden instead!** _ (Dopers laughed at me for this and suggested that I study Civics 101 — but then it turned out the Chairwoman of the DNC was seeking the same solution behind closed doors.) > > But Biden in 2020, four years older? _ **No.** _ Drop it. Why not? Look, 80 ain’t what it was when you were a kid. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/142 "2018-10-09T23:29:55Z")
Mitch. Bitch. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2018, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/143 "2018-10-09T23:55:29Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Mitch. > > Bitch. Ditch. Itch. Hitch. Whatthefuck is your point?😕:mad: ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/144 "2018-10-10T00:29:01Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Aspenglow** : > > Not Hickenlooper. I disqualified him when he and John Kasich began kicking around the idea of a Kasich/Hickenlooper joint ticket. If Kasich has become a “moderate Republican,” then the battle is already lost. (Check his record.) That Hickenlooper would even consider such a joint run disqualifies him in my view based on his bad judgment. It’s not that Kasich is a centrist. He’s quite conservative. But the thing is, that makes him pretty much unique among current Republican politicians: He’s the only conservative Republican out there. Most of the rest are Trumpist radicals. And, frankly, we need conservatives. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/145 "2018-10-10T00:39:10Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It’s not that Kasich is a centrist. He’s quite conservative. But the thing is, that makes him pretty much unique among current Republican politicians: He’s the only conservative Republican out there. Most of the rest are Trumpist radicals. And, frankly, we need conservatives. I don’t like many of Kasich’s stances, but at least I respect him. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/146 "2018-10-10T00:49:08Z")
I don’t respect him. He shouldn’t have run in that primary if he wasn’t running to win, and he half-assed it. He talked a big game about how uncouth Trump was, so if he wanted to be president instead of Trump, he should have tried to, you know, beat Trump. He didn’t try. He totally lacked heart in those debates. At one point in one of the debates, in his closing statement, he said something like, “I hope you vote for me…I’d really appreciate it”, in a supplicating tone that utterly undermined any stage presence he might have had. I actually laughed out loud when he said it because it sounded so pathetic. I respect people with mettle and moxie, not sad-sacks like Kasich. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/147 "2018-10-10T00:53:31Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It’s not that Kasich is a centrist. He’s quite conservative. But the thing is, that makes him pretty much unique among current Republican politicians: He’s the only conservative Republican out there. Most of the rest are Trumpist radicals. And, frankly, we need conservatives. > [@DrDeth](#): > > I don’t like many of Kasich’s stances, but at least I respect him. [Think women will get behind him](http://www.ontheissues.org/John_Kasich.htm)? Pay particular attention to the first segment on abortion. Also wants religion taught in schools. We don’t need conservatives like this, IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 12:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/148 "2018-10-10T00:58:15Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Ditch. > Itch. > Hitch. > > Whatthefuck is your point?😕:mad: Mitch Landrieu. President of theeee U-nited States of 'Merkuh ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/149 "2018-10-10T00:59:18Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I don’t like many of Kasich’s stances, but at least I respect him. Kasich is a nice guy, but he’s a pussy. America needs a lion. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/150 "2018-10-10T02:11:34Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > [Think women will get behind him](http://www.ontheissues.org/John_Kasich.htm)? > > Pay particular attention to the first segment on abortion. Also wants religion taught in schools. > > We don’t need conservatives like this, IMHO. Well, he’s no Democrat. He’s moderate for GOP. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/151 "2018-10-10T02:13:10Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Kasich is a nice guy, but he’s a pussy. > > America needs a lion. I dont want Kasich, I just pointed out i can respect him. I mean this is about who the Dems would want as Prez. Not the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/152 "2018-10-10T02:20:55Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Well, he’s no Democrat. He’s moderate for GOP. I only mentioned Kasich as demonstrative of Hickenlooper’s poor judgment. I’m perfectly happy to have Kasich run as a Republican against Trump in 2020 and split that vote – so long as he does it with a different candidate for Veep. What I question is how Hickenlooper ever thought it was a good idea to run as the back half of a bipartisan ticket that advances the views that Kashich holds. How does that help the Dems in any way? And it’s why I think Hickenlooper is a poor choice for a Democratic front runner in 2020. I do actually like Mitch Landrieu, but he’s got a lot of name recognition to catch up on. Plus I’m sick of the notion that federal level government experience doesn’t matter. It does. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/153 "2018-10-10T04:40:04Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > No, they should pick a candidate based upon their electability in the general election. Anyone branded (with solid evidence) as a Commie will lose. Simple as that. Why on earth do you think that someone who couldn’t rally Dem voters in the last Primary will magically do so now? Bernie will rally his fans- which are about 40% of the Democrats. That’s not enough to win. Bernie lost even worse that Hillary did. > > Rove and the Kremlin won it for Trump by making up lies about Hillary. > > Look, even here in this thread- “The Democrats nominated the least popular person, so she lost”- and what made Hillary so unpopular so fast? Karl and the Kremlin and the power of social media. > > I am not saying take a boring centrist so much as take someone that isnt ready made for the GOP Big Lie campaign. And who isnt a loser already. You’re completely wrong about this. At risk of rehashing a debate that’s been had a million times already, let me assert the following. 1. “Rove and the Kremlin” had no significant effect on the 2016 election. 2. Hillary did not lose because of lies told about her. She lost because she was a terrible candidate. 3. Bernie did not lose the primary because he is too far left. He did remarkably well, given the circumstances. 4. There is every reason to believe that Bernie could have beaten Trump is 2016 and could do so in 2020. On point 1, given the 646,732,305,981 breathless articles about Russian interference over the past couple years, it’s easy to lose sight of basic facts about the matter. The amount that the Russians spent on Facebook ads in 2016 was a small fraction of a percent of what the candidates themselves, and Superpacs, and everyone else spent. There is simply no evidence that the Russian ad buys caused any meaningful number of people to change their votes. In fact, there is simply no evidence that they caused a single person to change their vote. (As for Karl Rove, I don’t why you mention him as he wasn’t even employed by Trump.) In the early primary season, polls matching up Hillary and Trump showed Hillary leading by about 3%. On election day, she won the vote by about 3%. So neither the Russians nor anything else that happened after the primaries can be blamed for Hillary’s loss. It’s all just excuses. On 2, do you recall any Hillary speech where the crowd was actually enthusiastic for her? Was there a single person who really liked her positions on health care, or education, or military action, or environmental issues, or criminal justice reform, or anything else? Her biggest boosters spent the entire two-year campaign season reminding us that she was female because they just didn’t have anything else to work with. She failed to offer a single policy that was worth caring about. Trump was the least popular major-party candidate ever. Any decent candidate could have beaten him. The Democrats failed to offer a decent candidate. On 3, it is of course true that Bernie got fewer votes in the primary than Hillary. But look at the disadvantages he had. He started with no name recognition, he didn’t take big money donations, party insiders and the heads of every mainstream liberal organization were on Hillary’s side from the start. Given those facts, Bernie’s success is astonishing. On 4, [polls from the primary season](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:JnSAReLgrJ8J:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us) pitching Bernie against Trump showed Bernie winning. [Polls from right now](https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/bernie-sanders-would-defeat-donald-trump-in-2020-new-poll-shows-1.6409421) show Bernie winning. There is straightforwardly no reason to believe that Bernie could not win. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/154 "2018-10-10T05:13:46Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > You’re completely wrong about this. At risk of rehashing a debate that’s been had a million times already, let me assert the following. > > 1. “Rove and the Kremlin” had no significant effect on the 2016 election. > 2. Hillary did not lose because of lies told about her. She lost because she was a terrible candidate. > 3. Bernie did not lose the primary because he is too far left. He did remarkably well, given the circumstances. > 4. There is every reason to believe that Bernie could have beaten Trump is 2016 and could do so in 2020. > > In the early primary season, polls matching up Hillary and Trump showed Hillary leading by about 3%. On election day, she won the vote by about 3%. So neither the Russians nor anything else that happened after the primaries can be blamed for Hillary’s loss. It’s all just excuses. > > On 2, do you recall any Hillary speech where the crowd was actually enthusiastic for her? > > On 3, it is of course true that Bernie got fewer votes in the primary than Hillary. But look at the disadvantages he had. He started with no name recognition, he didn’t take big money donations, party insiders and the heads of every mainstream liberal organization were on Hillary’s side from the start. Given those facts, Bernie’s success is astonishing. > > On 4, [polls from the primary season](https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:JnSAReLgrJ8J:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us) pitching Bernie against Trump showed Bernie winning. [Polls from right now](https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/bernie-sanders-would-defeat-donald-trump-in-2020-new-poll-shows-1.6409421) show Bernie winning. There is straightforwardly no reason to believe that Bernie could not win. 1. Only Trump apologists believe that. 2. Why then, did she win the primary so easy and win the popular vote? She also got close to winning the EC. Yes, indeed, i do, I saw quite a few. 3. Yes, because the GOP and the Kremlin hadn’t started their lie machine vs Bernie. In fact the opposite, they were feeding lies to bernie-bros. If they had started to hit Bernie, he would have gone down in flames. If you dont think that the Слу́жба вне́шней разве́дки (Russian CIA) could have made up a credible Communist party ID card for bernie, and found pictures of him at rallies or speeches, and gotten a few fellow travelers to say Bernie had been a commie, you are naive. Hillary was fairly popular before the lie machine started, it was the direct cause of her losing. ---
**Author:** ![Anny\_Middon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anny\_Middon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anny_Middon)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2018, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/155 "2018-10-10T14:49:42Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I’ll bet two cases of the delicious sweet-sour sticky rice whiskey that if Duckworth becomes a nominee FoxNews will rant about her “non-Americanness” every single day. Duckworth is a member of the Daughters of the American Revolution. I’d love to see FoxNews rant about her “Non-Americanness” and then have the DAR rise and say, “Uh-uh. You don’t diss our members like that.” I’m under the impression that membership in the DAR is highly-valued by some Americans. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2018, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/156 "2018-10-11T00:07:42Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **ITR Champion** : > > On point 1, given the 646,732,305,981 breathless articles about Russian interference over the past couple years, it’s easy to lose sight of basic facts about the matter. The amount that the Russians spent on Facebook ads in 2016 was a small fraction of a percent of what the candidates themselves, and Superpacs, and everyone else spent. Some of those super-PACs _were_ the Russians. And because of the anonymous nature of super-PACs, nobody can tell how many. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2018, 7:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/157 "2018-10-11T07:57:22Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > 1. Hillary did not lose because of lies told about her. She lost because she was a terrible candidate. Events can have multiple causes. (a) George died in the plane crash because he wanted to go to a wedding. (b) George died in the plane crash because he refused to fly Lufthansa. (c) George died in the plane crash because the air-speed indicator malfunctioned. (d) George died in the plane crash because the experienced captain was drowsy. (e) George died in the plane crash because the stall warning was ignored. (f) George died in the plane crash because of the law of gravity. _All of the above are true statements._ The 2016 Presidential election was _very_ close. As soon as you write “Hillary lost because of X and _not_ because of Y,” you are demonstrating innumeracy. Capische? ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2018, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/158 "2018-10-11T10:15:52Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Some of those super-PACs _were_ the Russians. And because of the anonymous nature of super-PACs, nobody can tell how many. Nah. Vast majority of the PAC money was against Trump at first. Unless of course you think the Russians were financing Clinton, Bush, and Rubio as well as Trump. Perhaps that will be the subject of your next late-night radio call-in. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2018, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/159 "2018-10-11T15:31:49Z")
Informed by [today’s 538 bit](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-behaving-like-a-2020-presidential-candidate/) I am thinking of how much room there is in each “lane” and how that will impact early races. I see Warren as highly likely to run. That takes up a lot of the economic progressive lane and means that if others whose core support is that group the early race vote may be split. And others there won’t not run just because she is. On the other hand the centrist lane is dominated by whether or not Biden runs. As 538 points out if he does not then Bullock and Hickenlooper likely do not. Now of course some potentials overlap lanes some. Where does Harris fit in that dynamic? And in the early races that determine the fundraising and media attention for the next rounds does someone who is between the centrist and progressive lanes get a following? Obviously this is simplistic as centrist is not centrist and progressive has various flavors. A centrist can still be perceived as an outsider and a progressive as of the establishment. This is just one dimension. Still the issue and question is: how does who else is running or not running early on split potential support and traction? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2018, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229/160 "2018-10-11T17:56:34Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Nah. Vast majority of the PAC money was against Trump at first. Unless of course you think the Russians were financing Clinton, Bush, and Rubio as well as Trump. . Cite? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/state-your-pick-for-best-most-likely-to-win-democratic-ticket-for-2020-then-say-why/821229.md?page=9)