# Statistics on folks not voting for Obama due to his color **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [November 10, 2012, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539 "2012-11-10T01:12:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/1 "2012-11-10T01:12:13Z")
Is there any statistics collected on the subject from the recent election ? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/2 "2012-11-10T01:56:20Z")
Not for the 2012 elections, yet, but here are two great places to start exploring that question: 1.[Seth Stephens-Davidowitz’s](http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~sstephen/papers/RacialAnimusAndVotingSethStephensDavidowitz.pdf) (pdf) terrific analysis of how much, and where, Obama lost votes in 2008 likely due to his being “black”. The author of the paper used a clever, more-honest-than-most data source: racially-charged Google searches. It turns out that one regional hotbed of racial animus is centered around where Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania meet. He cites evidence that such places tend to have a certain percentage of black residents – “too many” to “ignore”, but “not enough” to be a “naturally accepted” part of the overall culture. 1. [This map](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/07/us/politics/obamas-diverse-base-of-support.html?smid=fb-share) from a recent New York Times article, using 2012 election results. Interestingly, that same region shows up again as a locus of shift toward the Republican candidate since 2008. (So does most of Indiana and Kentucky, Illinois, and much of Texas. Also Connecticut. And, the San Francisco Bay Area – maybe those are mainly disappointed liberals!). ---
**Author:** ![sweat209](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9fc348/32.png) [@sweat209](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweat209)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/3 "2012-11-10T02:20:36Z")
Well Obama ran first time with phrase hope and change and universal health care thus scared a lot americans he was far left but than US recessions was like wow we need to fix this and problem with jobs and so Obama throwing a lot money around and speding money to fix this and this scared a lot americans he spending money like mad man and when gets in other term \*\*same thing \*\*⭕o. Also people saying 4 years yes 4 years in office and still many people with no jobs and still NOT out of the recessions . Facter that in and the debt and people anti- Obama . Also put other way Obama like the republican party had no clear plan how to fix the economy:o:o One throwing money around and raising taxes and other no tax and doing doing . The republican party probably be in power now if they did not move so much to right on social issues like LGBT , women rights so on. Look other way Mitt romney was more moderate conservative but move to right too much trying get votes and came acgross worse than Bush thus scared a lot americans . The US electoral system is broken .In Europe there is way more parties to choose from. ---
**Author:** ![njtt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ecd19e/32.png) [@njtt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/njtt)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/4 "2012-11-10T03:50:04Z")
If Romney had only run on the platform of “Other no tax and doing doing,” he might even have won. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![mcgato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac8455/32.png) [@mcgato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mcgato)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/5 "2012-11-10T15:06:50Z")
The wiki article on the [Bradley effect](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect) may give some info from the mid 80s and early 90s. I think that it is less of an issue these days, as far as polls not reflecting the actual vote. People who don’t want to vote for the black candidate simply come up with reasons other than race. (My opinion only.) ---
**Author:** ![Hershele\_Ostropoler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e47c2d/32.png) [@Hershele\_Ostropoler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hershele_Ostropoler)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/6 "2012-11-10T23:16:27Z")
People who didn’t vote for Obama because he’s black, people who overtly didn’t vote for Obama because he’s black, and people willing to admit to a pollster they weren’t voting for Obama because he’s black: three different (though overlapping) groups. People who voted for Obama because he’s black, people who voted for Obama because he’s black but came up with an _a posteriori_ rationalization that wasn’t about that: two different (though overlapping) groups. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/7 "2012-11-10T23:17:54Z")
Almost all of them. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/8 "2012-11-10T23:21:58Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Almost all of them. That seems really unlikely. There were plenty of people who voted against Clinton and Gore and Kerry and none of them are black. I won’t argue that some people voted against Obama because he was black but some people voted against him for other reasons. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2012, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/9 "2012-11-10T23:24:56Z")
> [@Hershele\_Ostropoler](#): > > People who didn’t vote for Obama because he’s black, people who overtly didn’t vote for Obama because he’s black, and people willing to admit to a pollster they weren’t voting for Obama because he’s black: three different (though overlapping) groups. There were probably some people who voted for Romney because they were sexually attracted to him. But they were too embarrassed to admit this to the pollster so they pretended they were racist instead. ---
**Author:** ![Turble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8dc957/32.png) [@Turble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Turble)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/10 "2012-11-11T17:24:55Z")
Estimates are about the same as the number who will not vote for a Mormon – somewhere between 20 to 24 percent. Serious researchers hesitate to publish such numbers because of the hit their reputations would take in the political-correctness-gone-wild media. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/11 "2012-11-11T18:01:28Z")
> [@sweat209](#): > > Well Obama ran first time with phrase hope and change and universal health care thus scared a lot americans he was far left but than US recessions was like wow we need to fix this and problem with jobs and so Obama throwing a lot money around and speding money to fix this and this scared a lot americans he spending money like mad man and when gets in other term \*\*same thing \*\*⭕o. Also people saying 4 years yes 4 years in office and still many people with no jobs and still NOT out of the recessions . Facter that in and the debt and people anti- Obama . > > Also put other way Obama like the republican party had no clear plan how to fix the economy:o:o One throwing money around and raising taxes and other no tax and doing doing . > > The republican party probably be in power now if they did not move so much to right on social issues like LGBT , women rights so on. > > Look other way Mitt romney was more moderate conservative but move to right too much trying get votes and came acgross worse than Bush thus scared a lot americans . > > The US electoral system is broken .In Europe there is way more parties to choose from. **Moderator Note** **sweat209** , this is in no way responsive to the question in the OP. Save the political commentary for another forum. Colibri General Questions Moderator To everyone else: We don’t need your personal opinions on the politics of the two candidates here. Let’s stick to the question in the OP, and in particular to providing factual information about it. ---
**Author:** ![Simple\_Linctus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Simple\_Linctus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simple_Linctus)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/12 "2012-11-11T18:36:57Z")
> [@Turble](#): > > Estimates are about the same as the number who will not vote for a Mormon – somewhere between 20 to 24 percent. > > Serious researchers hesitate to publish such numbers because of the hit their reputations would take in the political-correctness-gone-wild media. Given he got a normal amount of Democrat voters, that would suggest half of Republican voters are so anti-black they couldn’t vote for one. I don’t find that plausible. ---
**Author:** ![zoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zoid/32/336_2.png) [@zoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoid)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/13 "2012-11-11T18:55:01Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > **Moderator Note** > > **sweat209** , this is in no way responsive to the question in the OP. Save the political commentary for another forum. > > Colibri > General Questions Moderator > > To everyone else: We don’t need your personal opinions on the politics of the two candidates here. Let’s stick to the question in the OP, and in particular to providing factual information about it. Plus it hurts my head. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2012, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/14 "2012-11-11T20:07:46Z")
I’m sure that a large portion of white males would never vote for a Black, _but a huge portion of these would never vote for **any** Democrat._ I was once curious about the question myself and did some Googling. I didn’t save the cites, but IIRC (a big “if”) the percentage of white males who voted for the Democratic candidate was _higher in 2008 than in any other election since 1976_. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/15 "2012-11-12T02:01:09Z")
> [@Simple\_Linctus](#): > > Given he got a normal amount of Democrat voters, that would suggest half of Republican voters are so anti-black they couldn’t vote for one. I don’t find that plausible. Why hasn’t anyone commented on the Seth Stephens-Davidowitz paper I cited back in post #2? It’s quite readable, and free. You can quibble with his methods, but until I see something better, I’m going to go with his “4 percent of voters.” That was 2008, though. I’m guessing that there are additional voters in 2012 that did vote for Obama then, but for Romney now, for semi-racial reasons that don’t fit neatly into the OP’s question. I call them “pat on the back” voters – folks who proved to themselves and others that they can vote for a black man for president, but don’t feel there’s any reason to do it twice, ---
**Author:** ![romadea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b4bc9f/32.png) [@romadea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romadea)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/16 "2012-11-12T02:49:31Z")
I don’t see how it would be possible to estimate this accurately. There are so many reasons to vote/not vote for a person, and they’re not discrete, they’re synergetic. Plus, a lot of racism is implicit. The Seth Stephens-Davidowitz paper gauges the racism of certain regions by quantifying google searches that included the n-word. I’m sure my grandmother\* certainly hates Obama because he’s black, but she would never say that out loud, use the n-word, or use a computer, for that matter. If you look at his list of states in order of n-word google searches (“Racially Charged States,” pg 24) you’ll see that he has New York ranked higher than Missouri. I don’t think there’s any way in hell that New York is more racist than Missouri, so I don’t think this is an accurate gauge he’s using. A map of states that sent the highest proportions of racist tweets following the election: [Map Shows Which States Sent the Most Racist Post-Election Tweets | Complex](http://www.complex.com/city-guide/2012/11/map-shows-which-states-sent-the-most-racist-post-election-tweets) \*who actually (thankfully) can’t vote because she’s not a US citizen, so she might not be the best example, but if she could vote, she would have voted against him, at least in part because he’s black ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/17 "2012-11-12T03:24:50Z")
Quite a few whites have what I call mild racism. A little fear of the unknown. I know several guys like this who are adamant Obama supporters. I don’t know one single white person on either side of the fence who considered his color in their vote. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/19 "2012-11-12T05:16:37Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Quite a few whites have what I call mild racism. A little fear of the unknown. I know several guys like this who are adamant Obama supporters. I don’t know one single white person on either side of the fence who considered his color in their vote. People with mild racism tend to try and overcompensate for it’s something they’re aware of. I’d expect those people to vote for Obama more specifically because they felt slightly uneasy about him. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2012, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/statistics-on-folks-not-voting-for-obama-due-to-his-color/640539/20 "2012-11-12T07:22:56Z")
Nobody wants to talk about it, but a lot of folks just didn’t like the idea of voting for a guy who thinks that God is going to land in a spaceship in Missouri. And that he’s going to be the “ruler” of that new world. Or something like that.