Stephen Hawking says humanity must go to the stars. Is he right?

The problem, again, is one of energy. On the scale that we’re talking about, just the energy required in propelling the ship to any appreciable speed (even given a journey of a few thousand years) is going to be huge (and most of it, even with fission, dedicated to accelerating the fuel and propellent needed to accelerate and later decelerate). With even the highest imaginable specific impulse from any ion engine, you are going to need tens of thousands of pounds of propellent for every pound of actual payload, and the energy to accelerate it.

You’ll also need power to keep your miniature civilization alive; we’re used to thinking both in terms of energy being merely electricity and fuel, and as being an almost unlimited resource, with the energy from an ounce of enriched uranium equaling that from combusting a couple hundred tons of coal. However, in our miniature civilization inside the asteroid, we’re going to have to provide energy for everything; light to grow plants, energy for reprocessing waste and raw materials, et cetera. We get the vast amount of our energy current from the Sun, in the form of complex organic structures that make food, building materials (wood), organic fuels, the evaporation process that gives us fresh water, et cetera. Without the Sun, we have to replicate all of these processes, and without any outside help. (Picking up and scavenging supplies from space while in transit, especially when moving at even a small fraction of c, is so far beyond fantasy it’s not even worth consideration.)

If we’re going to assume that we’ve got time to kill and can spend a few eons preparing, then we don’t need to rely upon existing technology. In a thousand years, or perhaps even a couple hundred, we’ll most likely have controlled fusion as a mature technology. This alone might make such a journey possible (albeit just barely). Given a longer timeframe and we’re likely to have discovered even more advanced technologies that would fall into the realm of speculative science fiction today. And it’s almost certain that, given a spacefaring lifestyle, we won’t be dressing in spandex and giving orders to “fire at will” at bony-headed aliens whilst being tossed about the bridge. More than likely, we’ll modify ourselves to be more robust and tolerant of conditions in deep space so that radiation, freefall, and lack of vacuum aren’t immediately fatal hazards. As others have noted, whatever the future will be like, it’ll probably bear as much relation to our current expectations as the Jetsons does to life today.

Stranger

I don’t disagree with any of that. I guess my point is that any approach that could possibly work would probably be one of incrementalism. For example, you wouldn’t start a huge program to hollow out hundreds of cubic miles of asteroid - you’d start with a cavity big enough for a small colony of a couple of hundred people maybe, which would not even be remotely self-sufficient. Over decades or centuries, the asteroid might be hollowed out more and more as the need for space grew.

Eventually, such an asteroid might house thousands. And it’s already got lots of reaction mass and shielding, because all the people live hundreds of feet below the surface.

I could see even larger asteroids being used for this - Ceres, for example. 600 miles in diameter and spherical. Not only that, but it might have a core of ice containing more fresh water than the Earth. Not only would that provide all the water a colony needs pretty much forever, but it would be a simple matter to hollow out the interior using heat and piping. Melt a view hundred cubic kilometers of ice, pump the water to the surface, and let it re-freeze. Cover it with soil so it doesn’t ablate away. Build a few standard forms for buildings, and you could pour the water in the forms, let it freeze, spray on a protective coating, and you’d have a heavy duty building on the surface for housing machinery, storing supplies, doing experiments, and working with propulsion equipment.

Engineering on this scale isn’t going to happen in the next 50 years. After that, who knows? Maybe it will be hundreds of years before we go into space on a large scale and have a real mastery of large construction projects off Earth. By then, I’m guessing that we’ll know so much about our own local star cluster that we’ll either have a very compelling reason to travel to one or more of them, or we’ll find that a habitable planet like Earth is very unique and there isn’t another one within a few hundred light years, and the whole thing will be moot.

I think we’ll know if there are other Earth-like worlds nearby within the next 30 years. If we find one, and it shows water oceans and an oxygen atmosphere, I’d bet plans would start for some sort of interstellar probe. Unmanned, of course. It’d probably take several decades to design and build such a beast, and it would be a project an order of magnitude greater than ISS, but if we found another ‘Earth’ nearby I suspect the desire to see what’s there would be nearly impossible to ignore.

Since my big plan ( :stuck_out_tongue: ) has been shredded I’m unsure why you ask, but what the hell. No, it wouldn’t matter if some percentage of them went smash and go boom…for one thing the odds of actually hitting something have got to be, well, astronomical so to speak. For another, redundancy would be built into the system…i.e. we’d send out a lot more resupply ships than would actually be needed to get the job done.

However, if nuclear fuels could not be maintained for future use for more than a few years, my own concept is pretty much out the, er, airlock. I did not realize that fission fuel rods could not be kept and stored for hundreds or thousands of years when not in use…or that the fissionable material for bombs could not be similarly stored in its component parts and then assembled for use when needed. You’d have to go back to a ship on a purely ballistic trajectory…one that would take a LONG ass time to get there (i.e. thousands if not 10’s of thousands of years). The earth would need to come up with ways of resupplying the energy and other needs of the ship while enroute…and such a lengthening of transit time would make the odds of getting there go from perhaps 1 in 1000 to 1 in a million.

-XT

There’s a reason Ceres is spherical - it’s big enough to pull itself together by gravity. I think removing the core (regardless of whether it’s made of ice or rock) and heaping it up on the outside is just going to have your roof tumbling down on your head, especially under the kind of stresses you’ll need to apply to get it to leave the solar system.

If we could invent a method of completely converting mass to energy, then I think I’ll concede it may be just about achievable, someday; there are still a considerable number of hugely significant technological challenges (In practical terms, impossible barriers to us at the level of technology we’re likely to achieve anytime soon).

However, I think it’s more likely that humans will become extinct before anything like that happens.

It’s only 567 miles in diameter. It seems to me that one possible reason it’s spherical is because it’s mostly water, which will flow into a spherical shape. Would it have enough gravity to make it spherical if it was solid rock? I don’t know.

Anyway, I’m not talking about completely hollowing the thing out. I’m talking about a few hundred cubic miles of tunnel space out of something like 100 million cubic miles of volume.

Ok… that may be possible. You’ve still got to woo it away from the sun though…

Isn’t the difference in cost going to be based on the measure of necessity? If we wanted to do it today, the cost would be huge based on the fact that the urgency is not quite needed, we have other things to worry about. But if we knew that we had to do it in a certain amount of time, wouldn’t altruism come into play, and the resources required to get the job done would find themselves and every interested party would just help out in anyway they can? No budget required?

I’m not sure; if we’re talking about some kind of When Worlds Collide scenario, any discovery of impending terrestrial doom would probably come to late to permit any escape. Even if we had, say, one thousand years advance warning, I don’t think it would help, because reaction would largely be divided between:
-“Not my problem - I’ll be dead and gone”
-“Wow, this is serious, but let’s hope some people find a solution nearer the time”

Not to mention:
-“There’s more than one way to interpret the data - it might not actually happen”

“Can you put that on a PowerPoint slide? I think we should present this at the quarterly review.”

Stranger

I believe that if we ever solve the problem of interstellar travel we will have also solved all the problems that would make such travel necessary (except for the Sun expanding into a red giant in 5 billion years and vaporizing the planet).

Even if you are correct, how about the human drive that make a few say? “Do it because we can.”

But what will cause that certain amount of time factor? The end of the world as we know it? If that occurred, there might be some “Lets keep humanity going” feeling with the effort to keep colonize the universe. You might find that there would be much less of the altruism you mentioned, and more, let’s live for today. I think civilization and law and order would decay rapidly, and our ability to finance this vanish.

My personal prediction on this topic:
Year 2237: The technology is finalized and the ship is launched, it will take 1,000 years to get there.

Year 2492: New technology allows for a new ship, it will take 500 years to get there.

Year 2735: Another breakthrough, another ship, travel time is 150 years.
Let’s skip the first 2 because they will be a waste of resources.

That depends if it will only take a few to make the journey. If the technology is such that a trip could be privately financed then I can see it happening. But if it takes the resources of a government then I see us choosing to spend the money in our own solar system.

I can so hear the echo of that statement in 1958 talking about going to the moon with the moon being the trip and the country = solar system. :smiley:

On NPR’s All Things Considered, they ran three related reports tonight on returning to the moon and building a moon base.

Audio for these stories will be available at approx. 7:30 p.m. ET

NASA Airs Its Plan to Revisit the Moon by 2020

A Montage of Lunar Plans

Moon Society Encouraged by Plans for Lunar Base

I hope a few enjoy the audio reports later.
Jim

IIRC there was a novel written on this theme. I’m imagining a Far Side-ish
cartoon with the faster ship sailing by the slower one as the crewmembers on the
former moon the latter…