I’d be willing to bet $100 he’s deader than a doornail.
I hate how the press and their idiotic enablers create this whole suspenseful B.S. (see Utah Miners) as if someone who’s clearly now taking the dirt nap might be alive still (be sure you stay tuned and pay close attention to the adverts). :rolleyes:
One of Kirk Douglas’s early works, Ace in the Hole (1951) dealt with just that topic. I got a chance to watch it just the other day when the Utah thing was beginning to wind down. It was kind of thought provoking.
Of course I hope he is found alive, but I bet he didn’t make it.
I think your pessimism is a bit premature. Fossett is a competent, experienced pilot who has faced many difficult situations and survived. He could very well have survived a crash and be holding out for help. If they haven’t located him after a week, I’ll be more inclined to agree w/ you, but a couple of days is much to soon to be hanging the crepe.
The media can’t very well just throw in the towel after a day and say, “Yep, he’s probably dead so we just won’t cover the story any more until they come up with a body”. He was fairly well known, I bet they went for at least a week on the Amelia Earhart story.
On the other hand, despite how savvy Fossett is, after a couple of days with no radio transmissions, signal fires, or anything else, you have to expect that he’s not just sitting there waiting on a rescue plane to taxi up to the crash. Hope I’m wrong, but I’m not holding my breath.
He did take off from there. You know what its like out there. I ride motorcycles all around in those mountains on either side of that valley. They are searching a 600 sq mile area. Some of that terrain is so rugged, you could fly or drive right by him and never see a thing. If he had a mechanical failure and had to go down in the mountains, he’d be lucky to survive the crash. If he did, they better find him fast, but no emergency beacons yet.
What I don’t get is that they are reporting he was scouting a location for a land-speed record attempt. What utter crap! A half-hour on Google Maps will tell you the only place for that is Bonneville.
Agreed - and I know from some experience that a crashed airplane is often a lot harder to see than people tend to assume. It should be noted that the few roads in that area tend to be rough and little-used.
Right, and that’s a big issue. His plane would have had a crash-activated ELT (emergency locator transmitter) on board. If he made a forced landing that wasn’t serious, he could have activated the device manually. The fact that no signal has been detected is definitely not a good sign. And without such a signal, searching is enormously more difficult.
I have met Steve Fossett a couple of times, and I know some soaring pilots that are good friends of his. He comes across as friendly and rather unassuming, but he is in fact quite tough and determined. So he is as likely as anyone to be able to survive this sort of ordeal. But, to be honest, the likelihood of survival declines with every passing hour.
I, too, am puzzled by that. I don’t know where he might have usefully done such scouting within a reasonable distance of the Flying M Ranch.
There was a chartered Lear Jet crash in New Hampshire in 1996 on Christmas Eve. What followed was the largest search in the state’s history and nothing was found in the weeks and months after. Several years later, a hunter found some odd debris on the side of a hill and what he saw left, was amazingly all there was. That part of New Hampshire is very rural but it isn’t completely remote. That was a jet with two pilots and passengers as well, not one person in a small prop plane. They can disappear in an instant.
What if he didn’t crash?
What if he landed (for whatever reason) off-airport in a controlled manner (so not activating the ELT), got out of the airplane, and THEN got into trouble? If he fell down some terrain (I’m not familar with the area - is that possible) and couldn’t get back to the airplane then there would be no signal of any sort, would there?
Just completely wild speculation on my part, as a way of explaining why he might have disappeared with no signal at all.
I heard or read today that he was wearing an ELT watch.
Ah. Here it is:
Information on the Breitling Emergency can be found here.
Steve Fossett missing in an airplane.
Jim Gray missing in a sailboat.
:dubious:
It’s certainly possible, but seems much less likely than the crash explanation.
Here’s the Wiki article on that crash. There were no passengers aboard - just the two pilots.
The voice recorder was recovered from the crash site - here’s a detailed report. The screwups those pilots made were astonishing - scarcely possible, you’d say, for pilots qualified to fly a Lear 35 (which both were).
Aiyiyi. :rolleyes:
What puzzles me is the lack of any distress calls. It is a really remote and unpopulated area, but there are flight service stations with remote communications to Reno and Salt Lake City at severl locations and radio waves lead tall buildings in a single bound.
This sort of suggests to me that he screwed up and flew into the side of a mountain.
And his ELT is supposed to self-activate in case of a crash, and needs no direct communication with any ground receiver (because its signal can be received by aircraft and satellites).
I agree that the most likely explanation is a crash severe enough to disable all radio equipment including the ELT, which crash would no doubt be hard to survive. I continue to hope that one of the less likely and more hopeful possibilities proves to be the correct one.
Hampering the search are the dozens of uncharted wreck sites in the area. They thought they might have had him earlier, but they put a guy on the ground who confirmed it was wreckage from an earlier crash.
A land speed record, but not at Bonneville? Weird idea. Maybe El Mirage dry lake? I’ve ridden motorcycles out there, but it was years ago and I can’t remember of there was a stretch long and wide and flat enough for a speed trial.
What I meant was that if it was just engine trouble or the like he would have plenty of time to call a flight service station or airport tower or unicom and say he was in trouble and going down at such and such location.
That area is definitely remote enough to make ground-to-ground communication less than fully reliable. And a pilot faced with the need to make a forced landing may well have better things to do than try to talk on the radio. But once on the ground, if any radio was functional it should not be too tough to establish some sort of communication. For example, airliners often monitor 121.5 MHz.
Here’s a story that suggests the search should certainly continue: Missing 76-year-old found alive after two weeks.