# Stock Markets, Tariffs, Coronavirus **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 24, 2020, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451 "2020-02-24T21:02:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/181 "2020-03-13T16:46:10Z")
… too late to edit, but my grandparents sold their holdings in 1999, 2000. _Timing matters_. Imagine if their horizon was 1944-2009 - that would’ve made a massive difference in their returns. Still good, great even, but nothing like the spectacular luck which they had. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/182 "2020-03-13T16:47:18Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I completely refute Octopuses assertion. The markets are still in free fall, so now is the right time to _hold_. > > And I refute the “10 year horizon” statement of “any time is a good time to buy” as one can look at DJIA history and find 10-year flat periods with ease. > > My grandparents started investing in 1934. I think that made a helluva difference in their returns than if they started investing in 1924. Unlike those who advocate for a nanny state I believe you have the choice to manage your life as you wish. My advice is still much better than those who hyperventilate every time a headline has bold letters and an exclamation point. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/183 "2020-03-13T17:28:20Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I completely refute Octopuses assertion. The markets are still in free fall, so now is the right time to _hold_. You’re right. Buying at the bottom is a better strategy. Thank you for the correction. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/184 "2020-03-13T19:03:44Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Unlike those who advocate for a nanny state I believe you have the choice to manage your life as you wish. My advice is still much better than those who hyperventilate every time a headline has bold letters and an exclamation point. So, your only reassurance that you are correct is, not one, but two generalized insults? Here are my citations that buying in _this_ market is a losers game: > > **[The Big Short](https://northmantrader.com/2020/03/13/the-big-short/)** > > Below is a note my wife Mella wrote to our subscribers this morning and it’s too good and important not to share. For those who don’t know Mella: She and I started NorthmanTrader years … > **[Cost of US corporate default protection soars](https://www.ft.com/content/f013c18e-649c-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5)** > > Investors race to protect themselves as coronavirus threatens companies’ creditworthiness … to that last… > [@](#): > > Investors are racing to protect themselves from the risk of corporate defaults as uncertainty intensifies over the economic implications of coronavirus, sending the cost of credit insurance to levels not seen in the US for eight years. > > With credit markets reeling from the widening outbreak and an oil price war that has raised questions over the health of energy companies, trading in credit default swaps has been elevated and prices have soared. > > An index of credit default swaps on investment-grade companies on Thursday hit 140 basis points, its highest since December 2011, while an equivalent index for CDS on junk-rated companies hit 688 basis points, its highest since June 2012, according to data from IHS Markit. > > … > > Credit default swaps are instruments that pay compensation if a borrower defaults, and IHS Markit’s CDX indices include CDS on dozens of companies. Borrowers included in the investment-grade index include Boeing, whose airline customers have borne the brunt of travel bans, and Disney, which shut its Los Angeles theme park on Thursday. The junk bond CDS index includes oil producer Murphy Oil, drilling contractor Transocean, and Whiting Petroleum, an oil exploration company. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/185 "2020-03-13T19:10:06Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I completely refute Octopuses assertion. The markets are still in free fall, so now is the right time to _hold_. > > And I refute the “10 year horizon” statement of “any time is a good time to buy” as one can look at DJIA history and find 10-year flat periods with ease. > > My grandparents started investing in 1934. I think that made a helluva difference in their returns than if they started investing in 1924. Long time Dopers might remember that back in 2005 when Bush was talking about changing Social Security into a program that allowed money to be put into the market, conservatives would say that the Dow was always up over any 10 year period. (Since the Depression, that is.) 2008 put an end to that record. Holding and accumulating cash in case you lose your job is probably the right thing to do now - but buying is probably better than selling. All assuming you don’t need money now. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/186 "2020-03-13T19:17:47Z")
[But even then, that wasn’t true](https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart) as even a cursory glance at that link shows. (Prices are adjusted for inflation.) For example, adjusted for inflation, the DJIA hit a high in October of 1965 which wasn’t exceeded until 30 years later, in 1995. Like I said: Conservative views of economics are purely faith-based. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/187 "2020-03-13T21:07:36Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > So, your only reassurance that you are correct is, not one, but two generalized insults? > > Here are my citations that buying in _this_ market is a losers game: > > [https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1238417247980355584?s=20](https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1238417247980355584?s=20) > > [The Big Short – NorthmanTrader](https://northmantrader.com/2020/03/13/the-big-short/) > > [Cost of US corporate default protection soars](https://www.ft.com/content/f013c18e-649c-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5) > > … to that last… Tell you what, you can look at any down period in history aside from this current one and you’ll see an even higher peak. I’ll value that historical data over a twitter opinion. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/188 "2020-03-13T21:13:10Z")
To my point: faith-based economics. “If you look at a partial set of data, using nominal dollars, my theory is correct!” ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/189 "2020-03-13T21:26:05Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > To my point: faith-based economics. Yet, productivity and progress keep moving forward! What, precisely, is your investment strategy? I don’t know about you but my crystal ball, my tea leaves, my duck entrails don’t work to find absolute minimums or maximums in markets. And since I don’t buy nor sell at one period in time I don’t care about extrema in any event. In long term investing you can’t be guided by emotions, hysteria, or bad information. Tell me, what are you doing with your retirement accounts? What’s your age? Are you selling everything in a panic and putting it in so-called cash? It’s your money so what you do with it is up to you. However, advocating foolish advice inspired by mass hysteria is irresponsible and irrational. I’ll tell you what I’m doing with our retirement accounts and our taxable investing accounts. We are adding more. And we are making sure we don’t have excess cash. So as soon as bills are paid we take a few thousand of the extra each month and put in into taxable accounts. We won’t need that money until 2045 at the earliest so I don’t care if the market drops another 30%. If we aren’t at a higher level of national productivity in 2045 we will have bigger societal and personal problems than numbers in a database. Now if one is living off of savings and that is one’s sole source of income and it is in 100% equities and one can’t afford a 50% drop than one is being greedy and foolish. Notice all the conditionals. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/190 "2020-03-13T21:29:30Z")
[AmErIcA iS sPeCiAl! ThIs CaN nEvEr HaPpEn To Us!](https://www.macrotrends.net/2593/nikkei-225-index-historical-chart-data) Actually, it can. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/191 "2020-03-13T21:35:23Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Yet, productivity and progress keep moving forward! What, precisely, is your investment strategy? I don’t know about you but my crystal ball, my tea leaves, my duck entrails don’t work to find absolute minimums or maximums in markets. And since I don’t buy nor sell at one period in time I don’t care about extrema in any event. > > In long term investing you can’t be guided by emotions, hysteria, or bad information. Tell me, what are you doing with your retirement accounts? What’s your age? Are you selling everything in a panic and putting it in so-called cash? It’s your money so what you do with it is up to you. However, advocating foolish advice inspired by mass hysteria is irresponsible and irrational. > > I’ll tell you what I’m doing with our retirement accounts and our taxable investing accounts. We are adding more. And we are making sure we don’t have excess cash. So as soon as bills are paid we take a few thousand of the extra each month and put in into taxable accounts. We won’t need that money until 2045 at the earliest so I don’t care if the market drops another 30%. If we aren’t at a higher level of national productivity in 2045 we will have bigger societal and personal problems than numbers in a database. > > Now if one is living off of savings and that is one’s sole source of income and it is in 100% equities and one can’t afford a 50% drop than one is being greedy and foolish. Notice all the conditionals. Again, you’re fantasizing, making up things, and accusing me of them. Since when did I ever, _ever_ mention “my investing strategy”? My investment strategy? I was born to a wealthy family. Lots of inheritance money in accounts I barely even look at, just have my guy rebalance them. Cool trick if you can manage it. I even get a free dinner every year and invites to the money managers swank Christmas party! ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/192 "2020-03-13T21:43:12Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Again, you’re fantasizing, making up things, and accusing me of them. Since when did I ever, _ever_ mention “my investing strategy”? > > My investment strategy? I was born to a wealthy family. Lots of inheritance money in accounts I barely even look at, just have my guy rebalance them. Cool trick if you can manage it. I even get a free dinner every year and invites to the money managers swank Christmas party! So what are you advocating folks to do? You are saying I live in fantasy land but you aren’t offering any practical advice? Stick your neck out just a little. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/193 "2020-03-13T21:45:57Z")
I said this was the time to hold, not sell, nor buy. If you’re doing a DCA, continue it. If you’re trying to time the market, stop. I would like to note that you literally responded to my “The markets are still in free fall, so now is the right time to hold” comment, and then 10-odd posts later, you challenge me to give my advice. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/194 "2020-03-13T21:52:08Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I said this was the time to hold, not sell, nor buy. If you’re doing a DCA, continue it. If you’re trying to time the market, stop. > > I would like to note that you literally responded to my “The markets are still in free fall, so now is the right time to hold” comment, and then 10-odd posts later, you challenge me to give my advice. :rolleyes: Oops! Well I stand corrected. My apologies. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/195 "2020-03-13T22:39:18Z")
No problem, my friend. As far as personal investing is concerned, we are on the same page. But ones returns _are_ a function of historical timing, which is uncontrollable. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/196 "2020-03-15T14:11:29Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I think we’ve pretty much established that, ROFLMAO. > > Yep - that, too. And that’s because… > > And looking at markets in Tokyo (and Dow futures), it looks like the Mango Moghul is well on his way to fucking up your retirement. > > Congratulations, ‘Merkuh’! You made your bed, now fucking sleep in it. Just wondering… were you aware you were responding to yourself? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/197 "2020-03-15T18:39:19Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Just wondering… were you aware you were responding to yourself? 😃 Absolutely. I could start a thread of my own, and me, myself, and I would have quite the discussion - believe me. ---
**Author:** ![Sefton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@Sefton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sefton)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/198 "2020-03-15T21:50:19Z")
The Federal Reserve has just cut the Fed Funds Rate by 100 basis points to 0%. And they’re going to launch as massive $700bn quantitative easing program. I’m speechless. Trump knows he can’t win the election if the economy goes against him, so he’s decided to print money until everyone’s happy. Unbelievable. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/199 "2020-03-16T02:00:32Z")
> [@Sefton](#): > > The Federal Reserve has just cut the Fed Funds Rate by 100 basis points to 0%. And they’re going to launch as massive $700bn quantitative easing program. > > I’m speechless. Trump knows he can’t win the election if the economy goes against him, so he’s decided to print money until everyone’s happy. Unbelievable. If he really cared, he’d find ways to make sure that the money goes right into the hands of the consumer; instead it’s going into the banks’ hands. A bigger problem, though, is that Jay Powell’s being bullied into making political decisions. The Fed is increasingly subject to political manipulation, and that’s bad. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/200 "2020-03-16T02:15:33Z")
> [@Sefton](#): > > The Federal Reserve has just cut the Fed Funds Rate by 100 basis points to 0%. And they’re going to launch as massive $700bn quantitative easing program. > > I’m speechless. Trump knows he can’t win the election if the economy goes against him, so he’s decided to print money until everyone’s happy. Unbelievable. That’s not the problem. The emergency cut on Sunday means the Fed thinks the economy is in a crisis situation. That’s going to spook the markets - and already has, since futures are down. Goldman Sachs forecast 0 growth in the first quarter (which may be optimistic) and negative growth in the second quarter. What does the Fed have left when we officially go into recession? Movie ticket sales were down 44% this weekend. Several major brands are closing all their stores. Starbucks is going drive-through only. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451.md?page=11)