# Stock Markets, Tariffs, Coronavirus **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 24, 2020, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451 "2020-02-24T21:02:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/221 "2020-03-16T17:42:33Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > And it looks like futures markets agree with me: they no longer trust the fed, but what this really means is that they no longer trust that this mother fucking ape of a president knows what he doesn’t know and to keep his fingers off the controls of the economy. > > I said it before, and yes, I will say it again: this country is headed for an economic dip. The question is, how bad will it be, and the answer to that question will depend on the response. Presidents have no control over a recession - in most cases they can’t be blamed for them. But they can be blamed for how they respond. The signs for this president and for this economy are ominous. Yes Trump is making things worse, but I think the overall market would look about the same no matter who was president. Just about every market world wide is down about 30% from its high, same as the US. You can’t have a everyone in the world stay home for a few weeks/months without massive damage to the economy. The thing is that the only two “positive” things that Trump could point as why he should be elected were the economy and judges. So even if it isn’t his fault its going to hurt his chances big time. (off topic) As far as judges go, I think he may be heading into a no-win situation, as abortion actually hits the supreme court. If Roe v. Wade is upheld, then even the conservative judges accomplishment will be more or less of the table. On the other hand if they do strike it down, then it will galvanize the majority who support it against him. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/222 "2020-03-16T18:25:16Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > To the lie which is American capitalism, note that we are a mere 4 weeks from all-time market highs and now we have zero rates, $700B in QE, $500B in repos, and a $1.5 trillion RBMS injection… > > … and it’s still not enough to save the system. A lie indeed. There’s no question that markets would suffer regardless of what type of capitalism we employed, but the post-1980 capitalism espoused by Republicans have replaced pensions with 401-Ks and IRA and encouraged gambling, er, investing in the stock market. This has been coupled with policies that have led to the concentration of wealth and similarly encouraged short-term yields over longer-term value in equities. A side effect of US tax and regulatory policy is that these policies also have produced a serious conflict of interest by the CEOs who pump up stocks any which way they can, take the money, and run - and unless they’re engaging in Bernie Madoff-sized Ponzi schemes, the only real accountability is a golden parachute. But there’s nothing of value for the wage-earner, their households, and consumers, who can only really grow their spending power (now and in the future) by taking on debt. And so take on debt we do, and we keep telling ourselves how great our economy is until debt-ridden households run into a cash flow problem - like right now. Send money to the local banks all you want; it’s the debt-burdened household that will need the relief, and I seriously doubt they get it. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/223 "2020-03-16T18:46:05Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Where are you seeing this? C-Span is saying it’s going to be the Vice President. I had the morning news on in the background while I was feeding the kids. I just heard president but they could have said vice president. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/224 "2020-03-16T20:39:51Z")
President Trump missed a 3,000 point drop by _thiiiis_ much, with the DJIA closing down 2,997 in a bloodbath in both points and percentage (-12.93%) to end the day @ 20,188 (truncated the pennies, sorry… I’m old that way. 😛 ). Just to remind y’all, on Obama’s last full day, the DJIA closed at 19,742, meaning that… for the market… 3 more years of Republican economics, led by a man who bankrupted 5 casinos, has gained a whopping 446 nominal points. Adjusted to 2016 dollars? Obama’s DJIA closed at 20,991. 20188 - 20991 * * * - 803 So… in terms of 2016 dollars, the market is _down_ 800 points since Trump took office. [https://westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi](https://westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi) ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/225 "2020-03-16T22:13:52Z")
This time however he caused the market to go down by telling the truth (for once.) We’ll still have a problem in the summer, nice of him to finally admit it. I don’t know why this was a surprise to some traders. Just wait until the unemployment numbers hit. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/226 "2020-03-16T22:27:59Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > This time however he caused the market to go down by telling the truth (for once.) We’ll still have a problem in the summer, nice of him to finally admit it. I don’t know why this was a surprise to some traders. > > Just wait until the unemployment numbers hit. Unemployment and all the other economic numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/227 "2020-03-16T22:29:03Z")
All along, I’ve had the feeling that this being an election year will greatly affect the reaction of the federal government. I wonder how much. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/228 "2020-03-16T23:21:28Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > This time however he caused the market to go down by telling the truth (for once.) We’ll still have a problem in the summer, nice of him to finally admit it. I don’t know why this was a surprise to some traders. They are probably thinking that if things are so bad that even DJT isn’t claiming everything is perfect then we must be well and truly fucked. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/229 "2020-03-17T01:33:07Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > Unemployment and all the other economic numbers. It’s not just the numbers; it’s the speed with which it’s all happening, and the timing couldn’t be worse: an election year. I hate Trump like a motherfucker, but any president would be feeling the heat in this environment. I don’t blame Trump for the situation. Any president would be staring down the barrel of a recession in this case. The difference between Trump and, well, George W Bush is that Bush realized that his ideology was no longer operable early enough to act, and since he was in his second term didn’t give two shits what his tea party nutjob radicals felt about his ‘flip flop’. I think Bush was largely a bad president, but he at least tried to be good, and this was because he cared about people other than himself. Trump, on the other hand, is a total narcissist, and his entire party has drunk his kool aid. He will keep badgering the Fed. He will keep blaming Obama and Democratic governors and mayors for everything that he failed to do. He will live in his own reality until he gets thrown out of office. But understand that by the time that happens, it could be Herbert Hoover time. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/230 "2020-03-17T03:22:08Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It’s not just the numbers; it’s the speed with which it’s all happening, and the timing couldn’t be worse: an election year. > > I hate Trump like a motherfucker, but any president would be feeling the heat in this environment. I don’t blame Trump for the situation. Any president would be staring down the barrel of a recession in this case. That’s true, but most other presidents wouldn’t have called the virus a hoax and have repeatedly said that there was no problem. Most other presidents were somewhat trustworthy. Most other presidents provided leadership. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 10:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/232 "2020-03-17T10:22:26Z")
Why aren’t our vaunted Job Creators keeping things running via their amazing bootstraps? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/234 "2020-03-17T12:05:37Z")
Part of the decline in markets - a large part, I think - is an admission by Wall St that the “strong” economy was the result of tricks like stock buybacks, many of which were leveraged (i.e. with borrowed money). Once there was an inkling of a looming demand crisis, the markets got exposed for the scam that they were. Now that people are beginning to price in the _real_ economic value of these companies and using that as a starting point to figure out how dire things may get, they are now trying to figure out just how bad things are going to get, ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/235 "2020-03-17T12:18:23Z")
To your point, Asahi: Total US Market Cap as a % of US GDP 2-14-2020: 158% 3-11-2020: 134% 3-16-2020: 109% [https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1239871604190064643?s=20](https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1239871604190064643?s=20) ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/236 "2020-03-17T23:15:24Z")
20% unemployment projected by Mnuchin. WaPo: 4.6 million travel jobs to be lost in 2020 Airlines: spent $45 billion in stock buybacks from 2010-2019, asking for $50 billion bailout. > > [https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1240026394870124546?s=19](https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1240026394870124546?s=19) ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2020, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/237 "2020-03-18T00:15:07Z")
I have no idea who Saleha Mohsin is. Do I have any reason to trust her reporting or what Mnuchin said, or even if Mnuchin said it, if he has any idea what he’s talking about? IOW, any other sources on either the Mnuchin claim or that any sane modelers see 20% unemployment as a viable forecast? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2020, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/238 "2020-03-18T01:00:32Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > 20% unemployment projected by Mnuchin. > > WaPo: 4.6 million travel jobs to be lost in 2020 > > Airlines: spent $45 billion in stock buybacks from 2010-2019, asking for $50 billion bailout. > > [https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1240045093958057985?s=19](https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1240045093958057985?s=19) > > [https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1240049040726855680?s=19](https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1240049040726855680?s=19) > > [https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1240026394870124546?s=19](https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1240026394870124546?s=19) The shit of it is…the industry as a whole is too big to fail. And so it continues: we’re forever trapped in this cycle of socializing corporate excesses and flushing those barely hanging on by a thread. I get why Bernie voters want a revolution. We’ve gotten so used to being screwed by the plutocrats that it seems a revolution is the rational reaction to capitalism gone wild. In reality, we just need to fix the tax code, impose regulations, and insist that white collar criminals…go to fucking jail once in a while. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2020, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/239 "2020-03-18T01:18:29Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > I have no idea who Saleha Mohsin is. Do I have any reason to trust her reporting or what Mnuchin said, or even if Mnuchin said it, if he has any idea what he’s talking about? IOW, any other sources on either the Mnuchin claim or that any sane modelers see 20% unemployment as a viable forecast? Seriously? You can’t click the profile to see she’s Bloomberg’s reporter covering the Treasury Department? Is Google broken where you live? Phone notifications turned off? :rolleyes: Is CNN authoritative enough? [https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemployment-warning-coronavirus/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemployment-warning-coronavirus/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2020, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/240 "2020-03-18T04:13:33Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Is CNN authoritative enough? Yep. Was that that hard? ETA: that story has a lot more context too. Way better than a random tweet. This still seems like unverified administration spin (that unemployment might hit 20%, not that Mnuchin said it), though. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2020, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/241 "2020-03-18T13:14:48Z")
Well now this is really encouraging - reassures us all that Trump is on top of things and going to hire the best people to handle the response to COVID and the coming economic nosedive. When there’s a coming economic crisis, who better to recruit the right personnel in the public sector than someone who was fired for unethical conduct and not even 30 years old. Better yet, hire someone who hires his buddies over qualified personnel. [https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/opm-chief-resigns-134541](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/17/opm-chief-resigns-134541) People are going to die because of shit like this. > [@](#): > > Dale Cabaniss, the director of the government’s Office of Personnel Management, resigned abruptly on Tuesday, effective immediately. > > Cabaniss stepped down because of, what two people familiar with the matter said, was poor treatment from the 29-year-old head of the Presidential Personnel Office, John McEntee, and a powerful appointee at OPM, Paul Dans, the new White House liaison and senior adviser to the director of OPM. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2020, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/242 "2020-03-18T13:48:45Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I get why Bernie voters want a revolution. We’ve gotten so used to being screwed by the plutocrats that it seems a revolution is the rational reaction to capitalism gone wild. In reality, we just need to fix the tax code, impose regulations, and insist that white collar criminals…go to fucking jail once in a while. I’ve been saying this for years: there is a reason socialism is popular again. It’s not random, it’s because the rich people are hijacking the world. They always do, but it’s worse some times than other times. The airlines SHOULD be allowed to fail. A few big ones will go belly up. Tough shit. Soon enough they’ll be bought out by other airlines or investors who will fire up the same airplanes on the same routes and life will go on. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451.md?page=13)