# Stock Markets, Tariffs, Coronavirus **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 24, 2020, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451 "2020-02-24T21:02:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Anny\_Middon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/bc79bd/32.png) [@Anny\_Middon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anny_Middon)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/161 "2020-03-11T23:41:24Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > If you think the markets are down now, wait until cases spike in Washington, DC, New York City, Chicago, and LA - that’s when the fun really begins. I don’t think our healthcare system is prepared for what’s about to happen, and I don’t think our economic policymakers are either. We’re in for a rough ride, folks. First case in downtown Chicago confirmed today. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/162 "2020-03-12T00:33:29Z")
> [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > First case in downtown Chicago confirmed today. Yep, just a matter of time. But let’s think about what happens when it starts disrupting the very people who work and make decisions in some of the more critical ‘nerve centers’ of our government and economy. We’re getting closer to that moment, I’m afraid. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/163 "2020-03-12T00:34:36Z")
> [@Tigers2B1](#): > > The NCAA announced the no fans attending March Madness games. World Health Organization just declared covid-19 a pandemic. Well that’s the smart decision - color me impressed. Now if they could just do the same with NBA and NHL. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/164 "2020-03-12T01:01:47Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Yes, it’s generally a bad sign, signalling that the company is in major financial trouble. I can find examples of this in 2008, but would have to go home and read some books. I’m thinking Bear Stearns and/or Lehman Brothers did the same thing… oh! Enron did this, but not in 2008… and there are some others. > > The only time it was done successfully (in my memory) was Ford in 2008, who effectively mortgaged the entire company as to not be put under receivership ala GM. It worked, but Ford is still struggling… even before this crash, their stock traded below $10. I’m guessing Boeing will get some ‘socialism’. Others? Not so much. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/165 "2020-03-12T01:24:45Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Yes, it’s generally a bad sign, signalling that the company is in major financial trouble. I can find examples of this in 2008, but would have to go home and read some books. I’m thinking Bear Stearns and/or Lehman Brothers did the same thing… oh! Enron did this, but not in 2008… and there are some others. > > The only time it was done successfully (in my memory) was Ford in 2008, who effectively mortgaged the entire company as to not be put under receivership ala GM. It worked, but Ford is still struggling… even before this crash, their stock traded below $10. dp ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/166 "2020-03-12T02:07:04Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > People are about to find out that our “strong” economy…isn’t really that strong. I think we’ve pretty much established that, ROFLMAO. > [@asahi](#): > > Without question, this type of shock event would hurt an economy that was more focused on stability than growth (i.e. a more socialized economy), but because we’ve been trying to pump up the boom side of the cycle, the bust is going to hurt like a mother. Count on it. We’re headed for a deep recession. Yep - that, too. And that’s because… > [@asahi](#): > > The only question right now is how long it lasts, **and that depends a lot on the decisions that policymakers make** - not just here in the US but elsewhere. And looking at markets in Tokyo (and Dow futures), it looks like the Mango Moghul is well on his way to fucking up your retirement. Congratulations, ‘Merkuh’! You made your bed, now fucking sleep in it. ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/167 "2020-03-12T02:19:50Z")
Except the people sleeping in it often aren’t the ones who made it. I’ll probably be fine. The restaurant I ate in tonight said they’re working with half staff. I doubt there’s a lot of Trump voters in the San Francisco bartender population. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/168 "2020-03-12T02:25:02Z")
The silver lining here is that some health officials and some business leaders aren’t waiting for Trump and his ham-handed HHS/CDC; they’re taking the initiative on their own. The presidents of universities who made the decision to close schools, the commissioner of the NBA, the NCAA…they’re saving lives. A tip of the hat to them all, and I’ll walk back some of my dire warnings and criticisms. If they can inspire others to do the same, maybe we’ll get past this crisis a little sooner. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/169 "2020-03-12T12:58:04Z")
Markets, however, are a different matter. Like COVID, calming markets will depend on how governments respond, and it doesn’t look like the markets have much confidence in this administration. We’re already headed toward a recession - that is no longer in question. But a recession is not as bad as things could get. We could have a complete, total market meltdown globally, which would lead to a **depression**. I don’t say this lightly. I wouldn’t say the odds are 50/50 just yet, but we can no longer consider these chances as ‘remote.’ There’s a real chance that missteps could trigger panic selling that could spread into a massive global contagion that would be unrecoverable. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/170 "2020-03-12T13:07:38Z")
I’ll put it this way: if Trump admin doesn’t offer plans for direct infusion of capital to companies impacted by this, and if they don’t immediately implement plans to put cash in the hands of people - working people - who will be impacted by layoffs…if that doesn’t happen right quick, **we’re headed for total economic collapse**. And the reason I say that is because this is moving so fast. It’s moving so fast and people at the controls are thinking more about politics when they need to be thinking about what the fuck they’re doing to stop the bleeding. It’s not 2008 - that’s true. But it’s no less dangerous to the economy, and what’s more dangerous now is that the people in charge are dangerously incompetent, and there is a lot less global cooperation - again no thanks to Trump’s ‘America First’ policies which discourage cooperation. We’re a lot closer to 1929 than people realize. ---
**Author:** ![Skypist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skypist/32/169_2.png) [@Skypist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skypist)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/171 "2020-03-12T19:56:26Z")
So now the NY Fed is going to inject 500 billion into the stock market. Does that mean Powell is ordering this or is it someone else? The markets gained somewhat upon this news. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/172 "2020-03-12T20:23:06Z")
> [@Skypist](#): > > So now the NY Fed is going to inject 500 billion into the stock market. Does that mean Powell is ordering this or is it someone else? The markets gained somewhat upon this news. Temporarily, but the Dow is down 2,352 over the day, almost exactly 10%. I am more and more thinking we need to do a hard shut-down. Close every school, every business except grocery stores and drug stores. Send out Universal Basic Income checks of $1,000 to every person. Make sure people have what they need to live, and little else, until we see declining numbers. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/173 "2020-03-12T23:44:37Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Temporarily, but the Dow is down 2,352 over the day, almost exactly 10%. > > I am more and more thinking we need to do a hard shut-down. Close every school, every business except grocery stores and drug stores. Send out Universal Basic Income checks of $1,000 to every person. Make sure people have what they need to live, and little else, until we see declining numbers. Speaking strictly about the economics of this, any “stimulus” - whatever the hell the fed and admin want to call it - has to focus on putting cash in people’s hands. It’s the cash that matters. It’s the liquidity, and it has to take into account the liquidity that people will need in order to survive a massive shutdown of the economy. But even if we do that, as LHOD posted above, we are probably going to need a hard shutdown - maybe 2-4 weeks - of all but the most essential of business. And let’s be real: this is going to present difficulties that are unprecedented and scary as hell. We’re going to have some old people going to your local ER by the dozens, and while that’s happening, those who are not yet ill are going to be shitting in their pants at the thought of daring to venture outside their homes to get food and medicine. Beyond that, we’re going to have grocery stores and pharmacies that are open, but employees who are afraid to go to work. We’re going to have supply chains severely disrupted, and we’re going to have demand that is so uncertain nobody will know how large their orders should be. Maritime commerce is going to be disrupted, with empty ships at the docks and laid off longshoremen. We’re going to have gas station employees afraid to go to work. Train and bus terminals, and airports that are well below capacity. Yes, we will eventually come back to normal, but it might not start to feel that way until late summer or even early fall, which would be not too far away from the next virus season. We are way, way behind on this, and I don’t think we’ve come anywhere close to seeing the worst of the nightmare. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/174 "2020-03-13T02:21:48Z")
This is where I’m wondering if government workers like me oughtta be repurposed. If/when my school closes, it’s likely I’ll still be paid. Putting teachers across the nation out of a paycheck would be a body blow to the economy, not to mention the court cases that would arise from contract violations. But a lot of parents will be staying home with kids. And there will be elderly folks who need deliveries of food and medicine. Since the government is paying us anyway, it might make sense to put us in charge of this. Our cafeteria staff can work on food prep; we can be a massive Meals [and Pills] on Wheels program, handling the grunt-level work. This isn’t really work I’d enjoy, but it might be vital work over the next few weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/175 "2020-03-13T04:33:17Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > 8 am more and more thinking we need to do a hard shut-down. Close every school, every business except grocery stores and drug stores. Send out Universal Basic Income checks of $1,000 to every person. Make sure people have what they need to live, and little else, until we see declining numbers. A bit off topic, but I struggle to imagine how this would be imposed and enforced without giving the federal government, led by Donald Trump, extraordinary powers that it’ll never give up. Not to mention figuring out what industries to keep open (water and electricity, obviously, but how about the internet?). As for “checks,” something like that will definitely be necessary, no matter what happens from here on in, but don’t forget all the people who are too poor to have bank accounts. Who’s going to cash those checks for them? ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/176 "2020-03-13T05:37:11Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I think we’ve pretty much established that, ROFLMAO. > > Yep - that, too. And that’s because… > > And looking at markets in Tokyo (and Dow futures), it looks like the Mango Moghul is well on his way to fucking up your retirement. > > Congratulations, ‘Merkuh’! You made your bed, now fucking sleep in it. C’mon now. Look at all the stuff that has occurred in history beyond the last two weeks. World wars, genocides, real pandemics all were disruptive and led to mass death. Yet, technological progress and productivity continued to improve. So unless you are retiring tomorrow and are foolishly in 100% equities that close to retirement then there is nothing to worry about. In 10 years if this board is still up check your stocks and post the difference in their value between now and then. I do one think it’s an even better time to buy. But that’s because I am a student of history. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/177 "2020-03-13T13:57:22Z")
Please see post 135 for an analysis of “history beyond the last two weeks”, Octopus. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/178 "2020-03-13T15:03:14Z")
Trump is set to speak at 3pm. The markets will still be open at 3pm. My bet: It’s delayed until after 4pm. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/179 "2020-03-13T16:17:53Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Please see post 135 for an analysis of “history beyond the last two weeks”, Octopus. What I conclude from Post 135 is that the markets will rebound nicely during the Biden administration. I don’t agree with Octopus on much, but I think he’s right here. If you have a time horizon of at least ten years, now[sup]\*[/sup] is a good time to buy. [sup]\*[/sup]With a ten-plus year time horizon, any time is a good time to buy. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451/180 "2020-03-13T16:29:32Z")
I completely refute Octopuses assertion. The markets are still in free fall, so now is the right time to _hold_. And I refute the “10 year horizon” statement of “any time is a good time to buy” as one can look at DJIA history and find 10-year flat periods with ease. My grandparents started investing in 1934. I think that made a helluva difference in their returns than if they started investing in 1924. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stock-markets-tariffs-coronavirus/848451.md?page=10)