… too late to edit, but my grandparents sold their holdings in 1999, 2000. Timing matters. Imagine if their horizon was 1944-2009 - that would’ve made a massive difference in their returns. Still good, great even, but nothing like the spectacular luck which they had.
Unlike those who advocate for a nanny state I believe you have the choice to manage your life as you wish. My advice is still much better than those who hyperventilate every time a headline has bold letters and an exclamation point.
You’re right. Buying at the bottom is a better strategy. Thank you for the correction.
So, your only reassurance that you are correct is, not one, but two generalized insults?
Here are my citations that buying in this market is a losers game:
… to that last…
Long time Dopers might remember that back in 2005 when Bush was talking about changing Social Security into a program that allowed money to be put into the market, conservatives would say that the Dow was always up over any 10 year period. (Since the Depression, that is.) 2008 put an end to that record.
Holding and accumulating cash in case you lose your job is probably the right thing to do now - but buying is probably better than selling.
All assuming you don’t need money now.
But even then, that wasn’t true as even a cursory glance at that link shows. (Prices are adjusted for inflation.)
For example, adjusted for inflation, the DJIA hit a high in October of 1965 which wasn’t exceeded until 30 years later, in 1995.
Like I said: Conservative views of economics are purely faith-based.
Tell you what, you can look at any down period in history aside from this current one and you’ll see an even higher peak. I’ll value that historical data over a twitter opinion.
To my point: faith-based economics.
“If you look at a partial set of data, using nominal dollars, my theory is correct!”
Yet, productivity and progress keep moving forward! What, precisely, is your investment strategy? I don’t know about you but my crystal ball, my tea leaves, my duck entrails don’t work to find absolute minimums or maximums in markets. And since I don’t buy nor sell at one period in time I don’t care about extrema in any event.
In long term investing you can’t be guided by emotions, hysteria, or bad information. Tell me, what are you doing with your retirement accounts? What’s your age? Are you selling everything in a panic and putting it in so-called cash? It’s your money so what you do with it is up to you. However, advocating foolish advice inspired by mass hysteria is irresponsible and irrational.
I’ll tell you what I’m doing with our retirement accounts and our taxable investing accounts. We are adding more. And we are making sure we don’t have excess cash. So as soon as bills are paid we take a few thousand of the extra each month and put in into taxable accounts. We won’t need that money until 2045 at the earliest so I don’t care if the market drops another 30%. If we aren’t at a higher level of national productivity in 2045 we will have bigger societal and personal problems than numbers in a database.
Now if one is living off of savings and that is one’s sole source of income and it is in 100% equities and one can’t afford a 50% drop than one is being greedy and foolish. Notice all the conditionals.
AmErIcA iS sPeCiAl! ThIs CaN nEvEr HaPpEn To Us!
Actually, it can.
Again, you’re fantasizing, making up things, and accusing me of them. Since when did I ever, ever mention “my investing strategy”?
My investment strategy? I was born to a wealthy family. Lots of inheritance money in accounts I barely even look at, just have my guy rebalance them. Cool trick if you can manage it. I even get a free dinner every year and invites to the money managers swank Christmas party!
So what are you advocating folks to do? You are saying I live in fantasy land but you aren’t offering any practical advice? Stick your neck out just a little.
I said this was the time to hold, not sell, nor buy. If you’re doing a DCA, continue it. If you’re trying to time the market, stop.
I would like to note that you literally responded to my “The markets are still in free fall, so now is the right time to hold” comment, and then 10-odd posts later, you challenge me to give my advice. :rolleyes:
No problem, my friend.
As far as personal investing is concerned, we are on the same page. But ones returns are a function of historical timing, which is uncontrollable.
Just wondering… were you aware you were responding to yourself? 
Absolutely. I could start a thread of my own, and me, myself, and I would have quite the discussion - believe me.
The Federal Reserve has just cut the Fed Funds Rate by 100 basis points to 0%. And they’re going to launch as massive $700bn quantitative easing program.
I’m speechless. Trump knows he can’t win the election if the economy goes against him, so he’s decided to print money until everyone’s happy. Unbelievable.
If he really cared, he’d find ways to make sure that the money goes right into the hands of the consumer; instead it’s going into the banks’ hands.
A bigger problem, though, is that Jay Powell’s being bullied into making political decisions. The Fed is increasingly subject to political manipulation, and that’s bad.
That’s not the problem. The emergency cut on Sunday means the Fed thinks the economy is in a crisis situation. That’s going to spook the markets - and already has, since futures are down.
Goldman Sachs forecast 0 growth in the first quarter (which may be optimistic) and negative growth in the second quarter. What does the Fed have left when we officially go into recession?
Movie ticket sales were down 44% this weekend. Several major brands are closing all their stores. Starbucks is going drive-through only.