# Stop Panicking! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [June 28, 2024, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447 "2024-06-28T15:26:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 54
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1061 "2024-10-22T12:17:32Z")
100% Loach. It’s VERY rare that there are uninvited guests at my home. I will politely ask them to leave If they are asking who I’m voting for. If their car is stuck or something I will help. Trump supporters have shown that violence is an option for them if they don’t agree with reality. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1062 "2024-10-22T12:31:09Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > Football analogies don’t really work for elections. > > Imagine what a football game would be like if all the scoring was done in private and you didn’t get to see the score until after the time expires, and then you had to wait for the officials to tally up all the points, which could take days or even weeks. Also, if every time a player scored, an arcane group of electors behind the scenes determined which team the points would apply to. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1063 "2024-10-22T12:50:39Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > “Toss up” forecast does not necessarily mean a “close” election, nor does it rule it out. This. To me it just means that the outcome (EV, popular vote, or whatever) is completely unpredictable. Behaviour that ten years ago would have elicited from most people, IMO, a “WTF is wrong with you?” or “are you fucking nuts?”, now will elicit support and approval from an unexpectedly massive percentage of the population. At this point it is impossible to predict who will win and there are simply no guarantees. ---
**Author:** ![slumtrimpet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@slumtrimpet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slumtrimpet)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1064 "2024-10-22T15:01:17Z")
Here’s a small bit of maybe hopeful news: We had a Provincial election in New Brunswick yesterday. The polls and the pundits declared that it would be “too close to call”. It was a blow out. > **[Here is the latest on the New Brunswick election](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/new-brunswick/here-is-the-latest-on-the-new-brunswick-election/article_90b37d22-758b-52de-ae99-fb16ee136727.html)** > > The New Brunswick Liberal Party has won a majority government, and Susan Holt will become the first woman to lead the province. Even the current premier lost his seat. Buh bye. 🙂 May the US election be the same. (I voted in both) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1065 "2024-10-22T15:44:36Z")
That’s a small but real piece of evidence that may support my hypothesis that there’s a subset of liberal/progressive voters who aren’t being adequately captured by polling – I suggest these are “Swifties” – technologically sophisticated young voters who don’t answer unknown calls or texts, and who strongly lean progressive. I know this is Canada, but Canadian culture has a huge amount in common with US culture, so there may be a lot of Swifties or some other under-polled progressive demographic common to both. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1066 "2024-10-22T16:02:13Z")
I think it’s safe to say that nobody knows what’s going to happen. We have no clue. Don’t panic but nervousness is understandable. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1067 "2024-10-22T16:36:30Z")
And instead of panicking or just being nervous or hitting refresh 11 times a day at 538 or calming yourself with the opioid warmth of Daily Kos articles or waiting until the returns starting coming in on Election Night, go out and volunteer one three-hour shift for Harris-Walz between now and November 5. You can find something right by you at **[Mobilize.us](http://Mobilize.us)** The folks behind that website have made it incredibly easy to find an event, action, and GOTV activity for you wherever you might live. Don’t waste this opportunity to actually make a _fucking difference in how this election turns out!_ Step out of your comfort zone, people! This is not a drill! ETA: If you do social media, and are comfortable sharing political stuff, share [Mobilize.us](http://Mobilize.us) with your circle. We need to get people out doing GOTV, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1068 "2024-10-22T16:45:28Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Don’t waste this opportunity to actually make a _fucking difference in how this election turns out!_ Step out of your comfort zone, people! This is not a drill! This ^^^^ ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1069 "2024-10-22T19:56:31Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’m okay with some panic on the D side. Voting being done while the perception is that Trump is on the verge of being in power again. It motivates better than being in the lead. Being nervous and scared is fine. _Panic_ leads to wrong decisions and errors. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1070 "2024-10-22T22:13:57Z")
Meh. I’m assuming leadership is smart enough not to panic but to stick to executing the game plan. I’m talking rank and file panic. Unengaged voters who don’t relish more years of the Trump man show but who weren’t sure about bothering to vote. Voters who want to signal they are unhappy with actions and inactions with Israel but also who understand that Trump actually _winning_ would be catastrophic. The narrative of him being slightly ahead is better for their turnout than thinking she is. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1071 "2024-10-22T22:37:14Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’m talking rank and file panic. Unengaged voters who don’t relish more years of the Trump man show but who weren’t sure about bothering to vote. Voters who want to signal they are unhappy with actions and inactions with Israel but also who understand that Trump actually _winning_ would be catastrophic. > > The narrative of him being slightly ahead is better for their turnout than thinking she is. Absolutely! With Hillary polling so well in 2016, I think a lot of voters felt comfortable not showing up, or voting third party, much to their horror on Election Night. Hopefully these tight poll numbers motivate people a little. I know they’ve motivated me to work some GOTV in West Michigan. By the way, have I mentioned that you can find GOTV events near you by going to [mobilize.us](http://mobilize.us)? Oh, I have? Well there’s the link again, one more time for those who may have missed it before. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1072 "2024-10-22T23:40:01Z")
> [@slumtrimpet](#): > > We had a Provincial election in New Brunswick yesterday. The polls and the pundits declared that it would be “too close to call”. > It was a blow out. Looking at [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Brunswick_general_election), I see a polling average where the Liberals are up by 9.3 percent. Actual results have the Liberals up by 13.2 percent. So the pollsters were off by 3.9 percent. This would be a normal state-level presidential polling error in the U.S. As to whether there is any indication here as to what the result will be in the U.S., it is hard for me to see. But I do like international comparisons 😁 Just to acknowledge, there were only two pollsters in my average, Forum Research and Mainstreet Research. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1073 "2024-10-22T23:52:01Z")
For what it’s worth, I’m still panicking. But it’s a quiet, wait-and-see sort of panic. There’s not really any decisions to re-think: I’d behave the same if Harris were on track to clear victory or clear defeat. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1074 "2024-10-23T00:25:23Z")
Where did you get that polling average lead of 9.3%? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1075 "2024-10-23T00:44:43Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > For what it’s worth, I’m still panicking. But it’s a quiet, wait-and-see sort of panic. There’s not really any decisions to re-think: I’d behave the same if Harris were on track to clear victory or clear defeat. I’m terrified. But, I’ve voted. My wife has voted. It’s really all we can do. I’ve heard it said that on November 5, the whole world will feel like they are waiting for a biopsy to come back. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1076 "2024-10-23T01:16:06Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Where did you get that polling average lead of 9.3%? I calculated it myself from the data in Wikipedia. The October 19, 2024 Mainstream Research poll had the Liberals up over the Progressive Conservatives by 10 percent. The October 20, 2024 Forum Research poll had the Liberals up by 8.6 percent. No other organization polled the race after July. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1077 "2024-10-23T01:16:32Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > > [@DSeid](#): > > > > I’m okay with some panic on the D side. Voting being done while the perception is that Trump is on the verge of being in power again. It motivates better than being in the lead. > > Being nervous and scared is fine. _Panic_ leads to wrong decisions and errors. I’m pretty sure panicking on my couch will not affect anything. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1078 "2024-10-23T01:33:36Z")
Nope. Specifically it won’t cause any harm. Meanwhile a few of the less motivated may feel a twinge of that panic and vote. It is a bit weird. The mindset of the GOP leadership is to want their candidate in the lead especially going into the final voting stretch. Their theory is that the unengaged want to be on the side of the winner. I think Democratic leadership thinks like I do: we want the perception to be that we are underdogs and that every vote could be THE critical vote that matters. Fear of losing motivates more than being desperate to on the winning team. My WAG is that the imagined GOP leaning unengaged voter is a long time loser, or at least self perceives as such. They have the need for a win. While the imagined unengaged Democratic leaner is more highly educated and not feeling like they’ve lost the game of life; they self perceive as winners, and fear losing that, and all of what we have won over the past decades of fighting. Losers want to be part of the win; winners fear losing their winnings. IMHO anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1079 "2024-10-23T01:47:52Z")
I think this isn’t so much about mindset as it is a tacit acknowledgement by both sides that, overall speaking, Democrats are usually the party with the advantage. They have greater numbers of voters, the media, history tend to push societies further and further progressive, the young tend to lean (D), etc. So Republicans have every incentive to portray their side as holding a lead heading into the home stretch because their side may lose faith if “the Democrat holds a big lead…as you would expect a Democrat to.” They desperately want to reverse the image so that it isn’t just a “Goliath beats David as expected” story. Meanwhile, Democrats are deeply worried that, despite having superior resources, complacency could bite them in the butt. They have a Nick Saban or Bill Belichick like attitude, the kind of coach who, even if his team is far superior, insists on playing hard until the clock reads 00:00. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1080 "2024-10-23T09:34:53Z")
Ah, I see. If you factor in the earlier polls the error is even larger. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447.md?page=53) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447.md?page=55)