# Stop Panicking! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [June 28, 2024, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447 "2024-06-28T15:26:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 64
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2024, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1261 "2024-10-29T19:53:20Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > But he’s not, nor has he ever been a part of the Trump campaign. Yes, what he said is shitty, and is rightfully hurting Trump. But again, my point was how are Ghouliani’s shitty things still being largely ignored-- that’s all I was pondering. Rudy called the Palestinians in Gaza terrorists and said they’re dangerous to Americans! > > I think you’re taking exception with the fact that I called this guy a nobody, and that strikes me as really odd. Would it make you feel better if I said he’s a brilliant young comic with millions of loyal followers, a wicked-sharp tongue and his finger on the pulse of America? I will if you want because his overall popularity was never my point. Guiliani is largely irrelevant at this point. His remarks won’t get any play now because no one cares on either side. He’s barely a footnote to the current campaign. At least Hinchcliffe is popular and current. But his remarks will quickly fade since he is just a comic and not part of the campaign. More relevant and to me disturbing were the unhinged and weird antics of Musk. His mania was hard to watch and that guy might be part of the administration. If you haven’t watched it Jimmy Kimmel’s breakdown of the rally on last nights show was pretty good. To bad he’s preaching to the choir. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2024, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1262 "2024-10-29T20:10:00Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > But he’s not, nor has he ever been a part of the Trump campaign. Yes, what he said is shitty, and is rightfully hurting Trump. But again, my point was how are Ghouliani’s shitty things still being largely ignored-- that’s all I was pondering. Rudy called the Palestinians in Gaza terrorists and said they’re dangerous to Americans As I said earlier, I’m often surprised by which MAGA remarks land and which don’t. In terms of this rally, I agree with you that there were many things that struck me as more outrageous. I was disappointed that many of the morning shows only talked about this one PR thing – one blue joke can be explained away, but the whole event basically being a HYDRA meeting is a bit harder to handwave. That said, I’m not surprised the Palestinian comment got no traction, sorry to say. US media is crazily in the tank for Israel and constantly equivocates support for Palestinians with support for Hamas. I’ve heard it on MAGA media, left and right wing MSM, and even some of the most popular left wing podcasters (though I will say a minority in this case) – support for Palestinians means support for Hamas. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2024, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1263 "2024-10-29T20:40:20Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > Gift link, I’m not sure what will happen to it when my WaPo subscription expires in two days. > > [https://wapo.st/4hqVMxw](https://wapo.st/4hqVMxw) Thank you for sharing that - and I echo most of what you said in your post. I’ve been playing around with Texas and I think I’m more bummed than ever that there’s just no way this godforsaken state is going to “turn blue” anytime soon. That old adage about “blue in the big cities but red in the rural areas” jumps off the screen, especially when you zoom out. But even in a city like Abilene (that you think might be kinda “hybrid” between big-urban and small-rural), smackdab center in the state with 180,000 people, TFG is pulling in 3x as many donations (in quantity) not to mention his average of roughly $180 per, compared to Harris at $65 per. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1264 "2024-10-31T13:50:55Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > The numbers for NYS, and to a lesser extent, Florida don’t matter too much, and the numbers in most swing states aren’t that high, but if this makes only 1% of Pennsylvanian Puertoriqueno Trump voters stay home, it would make a noticeable difference in the vote totals. Today I saw the first Harris campaign billboards in quite awhile here in Florida, although that could be selective memory. It could also be that she is so awash in campaign funds that she may as well use it. But it could also be that her campaign feels that Florida could be in play due to the remarks about Puerto Rico, since they are around 1,000,000 strong here. If only 1% of them in Florida either vote when they weren’t planning on it before, or don’t vote when they were planning on voting for Trump, that’s 10,000 votes to the good in the Sunshine State. When you need so little percentage of people to make a difference, I think that’s where anecdotes can be powerful versus data. 10,000 is both a number big enough to make a difference, but small enough that it would get lost in the noise of the polls. But let’s face it. No one will vote FOR trump due to the speaker’s remarks. Not even hardcore racists will wholeheartedly cheer on someone who disparages Puerto Rico. Not saying they won’t laugh, they just won’t care, as opposed to say, talking trash (heh) about any non-United States, non-WASP nation in the rest of the world. And I have heard multiple anecdotes of people planning to vote that had planned on skipping it before, due to the remarks. Let’s hope that this is widespread rather than just a few really enthusiastic Boricuas. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1265 "2024-10-31T15:20:06Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > But let’s face it. No one will vote FOR trump due to the speaker’s remarks. Not even hardcore racists will wholeheartedly cheer on someone who disparages Puerto Rico. Not saying they won’t laugh, they just won’t care, as opposed to say, talking trash (heh) about any non-United States, non-WASP nation in the rest of the world. I don’t dispute that what you’re saying may be true about how people feel, but the logic of it escapes me. The PR comment was one of many terrible things said at the rally, and far from the worst IMO. Not even the worst thing that comic said; I would have thought the “watermelon” joke would be worse. And in terms of being able to trash anywhere but the US…MAGA trash US states all the time; all of California, all of New York and indeed Trump called the whole of the US “a garbage can” just last week. And you would think Trump’s refusal to help PR after the hurricane there would be the thing that would lose him any support there, or with the wider diaspora. As I’ve said previously, whatever it takes for people to decide not to vote for Trump is good, but the things that people disregard versus what finally tips them over often seems strange. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1266 "2024-10-31T17:06:04Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > The PR comment was one of many terrible things said at the rally, and far from the worst IMO. Not even the worst thing that comic said; I would have thought the “watermelon” joke would be worse. The “come inside” comment about Hispanics was terrible as well. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1267 "2024-10-31T17:26:37Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > However, many mainland residents of Puerto Rican origin _do_ vote for President. I wonder how many MAGAs actually understand that Puerto Ricans living in US states aren’t “immigrants” but are full citizens with the same right to vote as any other citizen. More specifically I wonder if Agent Orange understands… ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1268 "2024-10-31T18:23:40Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > The “come inside” comment about Hispanics was terrible as well. The only thing that helps the Republicans in that one is that it was specifically targeted against illegal immigrants, and they’ve been courting Hispanic communities with people legally in the country who have a resentment against undocumented people. But from a racism standpoint, it was reprehensible. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1269 "2024-10-31T19:14:11Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > PA in particular has gone blue in every election since 92 except in 2016, it’s not much of a battleground state. Well, no, it is a battleground state now. That’s what the facts tell us; it went Trump in 2016, was very close in 2020, and is very close now. It will be decided by a very slim margin. By definition it’s a battleground state, and both campaigns agree. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1270 "2024-10-31T19:57:13Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > The numbers for NYS, and to a lesser extent, Florida don’t matter too much, Florida does matter. With some polls showing trump only ahead within the margin or error, and with abortion and pot on the ballot, things are gonna get dicey for trump down there. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1271 "2024-10-31T20:46:55Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It will be decided by a very slim margin. Your certainty that there’s not going to be any significant polling error remains a source of amusement. Anyone who’s certain about anything political these days is very amusing. I don’t know how you do it, but it’s hilarious. ---
**Author:** ![Palooka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/palooka/32/2902_2.png) [@Palooka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palooka)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1272 "2024-10-31T20:50:32Z")
That it’ll be a close one seems like the only take that’s congruent with the available evidence. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1273 "2024-10-31T20:57:08Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Your certainty that there’s not going to be any significant polling error remains a source of amusement. Yup, even Nate Silver said the most likely outcome is Kamala sweeps all seven swing states, the second most likely outcome is Trump sweeps all seven swing states. Both those options cover about 40% of likely outcomes. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1274 "2024-10-31T21:10:14Z")
Sure, there’s a good chance it will be close. But certainty? That’s nuts. Hilariously nuts. ---
**Author:** ![Palooka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/palooka/32/2902_2.png) [@Palooka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palooka)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1275 "2024-10-31T21:21:15Z")
You’re not wrong, but it seems like you’re agreeing with each other. Buddy is pushing back against the idea that a Democrat victory is inevitable, which isn’t the case (though it’d be nice.) ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1276 "2024-10-31T22:00:56Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Florida does matter. With some polls showing trump only ahead within the margin or error, and with abortion and pot on the ballot, things are gonna get dicey for trump down there. Yes. And it’s also crucial for the Democratic Senate candidate, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, to defeat incumbent Rick Scott (aka Voldemort). So dollars spent to boost Harris/Walz can also (potentially) help Democrats hold the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1277 "2024-10-31T22:20:59Z")
Sure it’s just a poll. It would still be a complete shock if Harris won there. I would be shocked if it was even close. > **[Donald Trump could break 36-year record in Florida, final poll shows](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-leads-harris-florida-poll-election-day-1976862)** > > The Republican saw his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris jump from September's Florida Atlantic University survey. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2024, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1278 "2024-10-31T23:21:48Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Yup, even Nate Silver said the most likely outcome is Kamala sweeps all seven swing states, the second most likely outcome is Trump sweeps all seven swing states. Both those options cover about 40% of likely outcomes. That could happen with a polling error of just a point or two. States are basically broken into the swing states, which are all ludicrously close, and all the other ones, which aren’t. There was once a day when a Democrat could win Tennessee or a Republican could win California. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1279 "2024-11-01T00:13:43Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Not even hardcore racists will wholeheartedly cheer on someone who disparages Puerto Rico. Not saying they won’t laugh, they just won’t care, as opposed to say, talking trash (heh) about any non-United States, non-WASP nation in the rest of the world. Huh? Of course they will, Puerto Rico is full of brown people that “hardcore racists” want to mass murder. Immigration, documented or not is just a rhetorical shield, it’s skin color they care about. Even if they know or acknowledge that Puerto Rico is part of the US they won’t _care._ They want a US where _everyone_ not “white” is deported, enslaved or killed. Being a US citizen has never been a protection from their hatred. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2024, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447/1280 "2024-11-01T00:18:39Z")
[Politico article about Trump lagging with the elderly buries the lede.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612) Which is of course: > [@](#): > > Roughly 35 percent of Republicans who have cast ballots so far in Pennsylvania are voters who cast ballots on Election Day in 2020, according to a POLITICO analysis of the state’s early voting data. By contrast, around 8 percent of Democrats who have voted in the state voted on Election Day in 2020. Those figures suggest that the early vote in Pennsylvania is likely to be redder than four years ago — and the Election Day vote is likely to be bluer The stuff about the elderly is probably important too, but the main thing is that Republicans are cannibalizing their election day vote while Democrats are getting new voters. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447.md?page=63) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/stop-panicking/1003447.md?page=65)